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Frieda Buhner in blowouts

39 of 39 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 19 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (7.0 pts) against in closer games (5.5), +1.5, t = 1.13, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.6). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.0
5.5
+1.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.3
1.8
+0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.9
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
0.7
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
10.2
7.9
+2.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
9.3
7.3
+2.0
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
7.9
6.1
+1.7
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
3.2
2.5
+0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.6
1.2
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
5.0
4.9
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.4
1.9
+0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.4
1.1
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.3
0.8
+0.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.0
1.3
+0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.6
2.4
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 185 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (5.1 pts) against other games (6.8), -1.8, t = -1.18, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.1
6.8
−1.8
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.5
2.3
−0.8
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.8
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
0.0
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
1.0
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.5
9.9
−2.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.6
9.2
−2.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
5.9
7.5
−1.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.4
3.0
−0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.9
1.6
−0.7
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
4.5
5.2
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.8
2.3
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.1
1.3
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.8
1.2
−0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.3
1.3
+1.0
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.3
2.6
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 172 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 25 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (6.6 pts) against other games (6.1), +0.5, t = 0.36, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.6
6.1
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
2.0
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.7
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.5
0.6
+0.9
gap is 2.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
pts+reb+ast
9.4
8.9
+0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
8.7
8.1
+0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.3
6.8
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.9
2.8
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.5
1.3
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
5.4
4.7
+0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.6
1.9
+0.7
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.6
1.6
−0.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.6
1.4
−0.8
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.0
2.0
−1.0
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
three-point attempts
2.3
2.6
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 39 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 5.5
2026-09-22
GSV
HOME
17.7MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
13.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
5
2026-09-20
LAS
AWAY
23.1MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
41.0
USG%
11.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-9
PRA
6
2026-09-18
GSV
AWAY
22.8MIN
14POINTS
3 · 3 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
70.0
USG%
22.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
20
2026-09-17
PHO
HOME
17.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
10.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-08-25
DAL
AWAY
16.9MIN
10POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
2-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
63.5
USG%
23.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
13
2026-08-23
WAS
HOME
10.5MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
37.5
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
3
2026-08-21
TOR
AWAY
9.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
32.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
1
2026-08-16
PHO
AWAY
18.0MIN
9POINTS
4 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
75.0
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
13
2026-08-14
SEA
AWAY
12.6MIN
8POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
80.0
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
10
2026-08-12
MIN
HOME
16.9MIN
9POINTS
4 · 1 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
75.0
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
14
2026-08-08
SEA
HOME
16.1MIN
3POINTS
3 · 2 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
0-5
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
16.9
USG%
26.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
8
2026-08-06
TOR
HOME
15.7MIN
10POINTS
5 · 0 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
71.4
USG%
19.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
15
2026-08-02
LAS
HOME
18.4MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
37.5
USG%
11.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-07-31
IND
HOME
12.0MIN
0POINTS
3 · 2 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
5
2026-07-28
LVA
AWAY
21.2MIN
16POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-3
FT
8-8
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
93.9
USG%
17.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
23
2026-07-22
DAL
HOME
16.9MIN
15POINTS
1 · 1 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
2-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
91.5
USG%
23.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
17
2026-07-18
MIN
AWAY
16.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
10.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-8
PRA
5
2026-07-16
WAS
AWAY
18.2MIN
9POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
64.3
USG%
24.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+11
PRA
15
2026-07-14
CON
AWAY
11.0MIN
7POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
78.8
USG%
19.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
9
2026-07-11
ATL
AWAY
14.7MIN
11POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
3-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
110.0
USG%
19.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-7
PRA
13
2026-07-09
LVA
HOME
15.6MIN
6POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
51.0
USG%
26.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
7
2026-07-04
SEA
AWAY
18.2MIN
9POINTS
7 · 2 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
45.5
USG%
26.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
18
2026-06-28
WAS
AWAY
22.2MIN
9POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-10
ABOVE
FG
3-10
3PT
1-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
41.4
USG%
22.2
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+6
PRA
11
2026-06-26
CHI
AWAY
20.8MIN
10POINTS
5 · 2 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
1-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
67.2
USG%
14.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-21
PRA
17
2026-06-24
CHI
AWAY
16.0MIN
2POINTS
3 · 2 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
25.8
USG%
13.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
7
2026-06-17
SEA
HOME
12.9MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.8
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-06-15
MIN
AWAY
20.4MIN
10POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
0-4
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
44.6
USG%
23.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-19
PRA
13
2026-06-13
DAL
HOME
13.0MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
83.3
USG%
10.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
5
2026-06-11
LVA
HOME
10.1MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
14.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+9
PRA
2
2026-06-07
LAS
AWAY
15.1MIN
7POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-10
ABOVE
FG
3-10
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
35.0
USG%
27.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
10
2026-06-05
PHO
HOME
14.6MIN
5POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-1
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
39.6
USG%
27.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+12
PRA
9
2026-06-02
GSV
AWAY
9.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
1
2026-05-30
IND
HOME
14.4MIN
10POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-1
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
74.0
USG%
20.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+14
PRA
11
2026-05-29
ATL
HOME
13.6MIN
7POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
121.5
USG%
19.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
7
2026-05-27
CON
HOME
13.2MIN
9POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
90.0
USG%
18.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+13
PRA
10
2026-05-23
TOR
AWAY
12.7MIN
5POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
86.8
USG%
9.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
8
2026-05-14
NYL
HOME
14.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-05-12
NYL
HOME
7.7MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
5.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
4
2026-05-09
CHI
HOME
12.8MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
7
every game on file — nothing hidden