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Gianna Kneepkens in blowouts

35 of 35 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
19 of these · baseline 16 (in closer games)MEASURED

in blowouts (4.5 pts) against in closer games (2.1), +2.3, t = 2.16, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.5
2.1
+2.3
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
MEASURED
rebounds
1.8
0.7
+1.1
gap is 3.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
assists
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
MEASURED
blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.8
3.3
+3.5
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
MEASURED
pts+reb
6.3
2.8
+3.5
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
MEASURED
pts+ast
5.1
2.6
+2.4
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.4
1.2
+1.2
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.5
0.1
+0.5
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
defensive rebounds
1.3
0.3
+1.0
gap is 4.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
field goal attempts
3.8
2.2
+1.7
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
MEASURED
field goals made
1.7
0.6
+1.1
gap is 2.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
free throw attempts
0.7
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.7
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.8
0.9
+0.9
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
three-point attempts
2.0
1.1
+0.9
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 169 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 22 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (5.0 pts) against other games (2.5), +2.5, t = 1.83, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.7).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.0
2.5
+2.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.5
1.2
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.4
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.1
+0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
7.2
4.0
+3.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.5
3.6
+2.8
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
5.8
2.9
+2.9
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.2
1.6
+0.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.8
2.6
+1.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.7
0.9
+0.8
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.1
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.1
0.5
+0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.3
+0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.5
1.4
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.0
1.3
+0.7
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 162 (this player's own bottom tercile)
13 of these · baseline 22 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (2.2 pts) against other games (4.1), -2.0, t = -1.89, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.2
4.1
−2.0
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.4
1.2
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
steals
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.4
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.0
6.0
−2.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
3.5
5.4
−1.8
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
2.6
4.7
−2.1
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.8
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
0.7
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
3.0
3.1
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
1.4
−0.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.5
0.9
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.5
1.4
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.5
1.6
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 35 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.1
2026-09-24
TOR
HOME
26.5MIN
12POINTS
4 · 2 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
1-3
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
64.4
USG%
19.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+17
PRA
18
2026-09-22
WAS
AWAY
17.8MIN
4POINTS
3 · 3 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
66.7
USG%
9.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
10
2026-09-20
MIN
HOME
20.3MIN
15POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
3-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
95.2
USG%
23.1
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
18
2026-09-17
ATL
AWAY
19.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-42
PRA
3
2026-08-30
DAL
AWAY
12.1MIN
2POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
25.0
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
5
2026-08-28
IND
AWAY
14.2MIN
5POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
46.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-08-26
GSV
HOME
15.5MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-6
BELOW
FG
0-6
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.7
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
4
2026-08-25
CHI
HOME
7.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-08-22
LAS
AWAY
18.6MIN
6POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
38.1
USG%
20.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
10
2026-08-20
LVA
AWAY
11.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
3
2026-08-18
LAS
HOME
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-08-15
NYL
HOME
4.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
21.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
0
2026-08-13
ATL
HOME
14.5MIN
10POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
71.4
USG%
21.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
14
2026-08-02
DAL
AWAY
6.9MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
58.1
USG%
22.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
5
2026-07-22
IND
AWAY
11.8MIN
7POINTS
0 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
87.5
USG%
13.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-07-19
PHO
AWAY
2.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-07-17
PHO
AWAY
3.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
113.6
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2026-07-10
GSV
HOME
9.2MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-8
PRA
1
2026-07-08
MIN
HOME
8.6MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
7
2026-07-06
MIN
AWAY
4.7MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
34.7
USG%
27.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2026-06-22
CHI
HOME
5.1MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
25.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-06-17
WAS
HOME
4.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
1
2026-06-10
TOR
AWAY
0.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
207.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-08
NYL
HOME
13.4MIN
5POINTS
1 · 4 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
39.6
USG%
20.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
10
2026-06-05
CHI
AWAY
7.7MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
43.1
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-06-02
ATL
AWAY
4.6MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2026-05-30
LAS
HOME
6.4MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
6.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-05-27
POR
AWAY
8.8MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
69.4
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-05-25
GSV
AWAY
11.5MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
104.2
USG%
11.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
8
2026-05-22
SEA
AWAY
11.0MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
40.0
USG%
22.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
5
2026-05-20
SEA
AWAY
4.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
34.7
USG%
30.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2026-05-18
POR
AWAY
4.3MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
20.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
3
2026-05-15
LVA
HOME
17.6MIN
3POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
27.6
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
7
2026-05-13
LVA
HOME
16.0MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
7
2026-05-10
SEA
HOME
8.0MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden