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Grace VanSlooten in blowouts

20 of 20 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
17 of these · baseline 3 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (1.8 pts) against in closer games (1.7), +0.2, t = 0.09, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.5). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.8
1.7
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.3
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.6
2.3
+0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.4
2.3
+0.1
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.1
1.7
+0.4
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.8
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.5
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.0
0.0
+1.0
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.7
0.0
+0.7
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.3
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 198 (this player's own top tercile)
7 of these · baseline 13 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (0.9 pts) against other games (2.3), -1.5, t = -1.46, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 1.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.9
2.3
−1.5
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
1.6
3.2
−1.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
1.4
2.9
−1.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
1.0
2.5
−1.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
0.7
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
0.4
0.8
−0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.0
1.3
−1.3
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
MEASURED
free throws made
0.0
0.9
−0.9
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 171 (this player's own bottom tercile)
8 of these · baseline 12 (other games)MEASURED

low-scoring games (3.3 pts) against other games (0.8), +2.4, t = 1.98, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.3
0.8
+2.4
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
MEASURED
rebounds
1.0
0.3
+0.7
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.6
1.3
+3.4
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
MEASURED
pts+reb
4.3
1.2
+3.1
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
MEASURED
pts+ast
3.6
0.9
+2.7
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
MEASURED
reb+ast
1.4
0.4
+1.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.9
0.1
+0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.3
+0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.3
0.3
+0.9
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.9
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.9
0.2
+1.7
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.3
0.2
+1.1
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
04

Game log

all 20 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.7
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
LVA
AWAY
1.9MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
21.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-09-24
MIN
AWAY
10.0MIN
9POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
5-7
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
88.6
USG%
21.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+15
PRA
11
2026-08-28
CON
HOME
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-08-23
CHI
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-08-14
DAL
HOME
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-07-31
POR
AWAY
0.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-07-22
CON
HOME
7.7MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
3
2026-07-15
GSV
HOME
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-07-12
LVA
AWAY
2.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+8
PRA
0
2026-07-08
LAS
AWAY
4.4MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
2
2026-07-05
LVA
AWAY
2.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-06-27
LAS
HOME
5.2MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-06-22
PHO
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
40.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-06-16
TOR
HOME
1.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-05-30
POR
AWAY
5.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
8.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-05-22
GSV
HOME
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-05-17
IND
AWAY
18.4MIN
5POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
43.4
USG%
13.8
STL
2
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-16
PRA
10
2026-05-13
TOR
AWAY
11.9MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
113.6
USG%
7.5
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-05-10
CON
AWAY
10.0MIN
5POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
125.0
USG%
8.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
7
2026-05-08
GSV
HOME
7.3MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
86.8
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
5
every game on file — nothing hidden