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Holly Winterburn in blowouts

29 of 29 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
17 of these · baseline 12 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (2.7 pts) against in closer games (5.8), -3.1, t = -1.61, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.7
5.8
−3.1
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.0
1.9
−0.9
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.4
2.3
−0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.8
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
1.3
−0.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.1
10.0
−4.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
3.7
7.8
−4.0
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
4.1
8.1
−4.0
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.5
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.4
4.2
−1.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.7
1.5
−0.8
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
3.3
4.3
−1.0
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.1
2.0
−0.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.4
1.4
−1.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.3
1.4
−1.1
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.1
1.2
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.7
2.0
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 184 (this player's own top tercile)
10 of these · baseline 19 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.6 pts) against other games (3.7), +0.9, t = 0.45, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.6
3.7
+0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
1.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.8
1.7
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.2
+0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.7
6.8
+0.9
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.9
5.1
+0.8
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.4
5.4
+1.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.1
3.2
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.0
1.1
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.4
3.8
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.4
0.5
+0.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.2
0.5
+0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
1.3
−0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.0
1.7
+0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
10 of these · baseline 19 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (5.7 pts) against other games (3.1), +2.6, t = 1.32, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.7
3.1
+2.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.0
1.1
+0.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
assists
2.2
1.5
+0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.0
0.3
+0.7
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.3
0.9
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.9
5.7
+4.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
7.7
4.2
+3.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
7.9
4.6
+3.3
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.2
2.6
+1.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
1.0
0.4
+0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.6
0.7
+0.9
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
5.4
2.8
+2.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.2
1.1
+1.1
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.0
0.7
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.6
0.8
+0.8
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.3
1.6
+0.7
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 29 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 5.8
2026-09-18
GSV
AWAY
24.4MIN
8POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-11
ABOVE
FG
3-11
3PT
1-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
35.0
USG%
25.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-12
PRA
12
2026-09-17
PHO
HOME
22.3MIN
18POINTS
3 · 2 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
2-5
FT
8-8
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
78.1
USG%
32.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
23
2026-08-30
GSV
HOME
19.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
10.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
4
2026-08-28
ATL
AWAY
13.1MIN
11POINTS
2 · 2 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
78.6
USG%
29.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
15
2026-08-25
DAL
AWAY
7.2MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
4
2026-08-23
WAS
HOME
12.0MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.3
USG%
10.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
4
2026-08-21
TOR
AWAY
9.9MIN
4POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
51.5
USG%
26.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-14
PRA
5
2026-08-16
PHO
AWAY
15.0MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
8.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
5
2026-08-14
SEA
AWAY
21.4MIN
20POINTS
7 · 5 · 8-14
ABOVE
FG
8-14
3PT
1-5
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
65.3
USG%
34.7
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+23
PRA
32
2026-08-12
MIN
HOME
9.1MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
23.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
6
2026-08-08
SEA
HOME
16.6MIN
4POINTS
2 · 7 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
17.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
13
2026-08-06
TOR
HOME
13.8MIN
4POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
15.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
7
2026-08-02
LAS
HOME
10.1MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
41.0
USG%
19.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
8
2026-07-31
IND
HOME
9.7MIN
1POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
17.4
USG%
12.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
2
2026-07-28
LVA
AWAY
13.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 3 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
3
2026-07-22
DAL
HOME
8.8MIN
3POINTS
1 · 3 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-07-16
WAS
AWAY
2.6MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
38.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-07-11
ATL
AWAY
12.6MIN
1POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
17.4
USG%
10.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
2
2026-07-09
LVA
HOME
2.6MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
17.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+8
PRA
3
2026-07-04
SEA
AWAY
8.5MIN
4POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
51.5
USG%
18.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
7
2026-06-26
CHI
AWAY
3.4MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
47.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
2
2026-06-24
CHI
AWAY
3.9MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
34.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-06-15
MIN
AWAY
7.7MIN
2POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
27.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
4
2026-06-02
GSV
AWAY
3.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
2
2026-05-30
IND
HOME
2.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-05-29
ATL
HOME
27.7MIN
6POINTS
3 · 7 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
42.9
USG%
18.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
0
+/−
-24
PRA
16
2026-05-23
TOR
AWAY
1.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-05-20
IND
AWAY
7.6MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
69.4
USG%
25.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
7
2026-05-18
CON
HOME
15.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 4 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
15.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
7
every game on file — nothing hidden