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WNBANBAEuroLeagueEuro
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Indya Nivar in blowouts

23 of 23 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
15 of these · baseline 8 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (1.3 pts) against in closer games (0.4), +0.9, t = 1.56, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 1.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.3
0.4
+0.9
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.3
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.2
1.9
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.9
1.5
+0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.6
0.8
+0.9
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
0.9
1.5
−0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
0.9
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.1
0.5
+0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.5
0.1
+0.4
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 179 (this player's own top tercile)
8 of these · baseline 15 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (0.6 pts) against other games (1.1), -0.5, t = -0.84, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.2).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.3
0.4
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.3
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
1.3
2.5
−1.3
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
1.0
2.1
−1.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
0.9
1.5
−0.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
0.6
1.4
−0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.1
0.4
−0.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.3
0.8
−0.6
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
0.5
1.1
−0.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.9
0.6
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 157 (this player's own bottom tercile)
9 of these · baseline 14 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.0 pts) against other games (0.9), +0.1, t = 0.11, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.3).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.0
0.9
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.2
0.4
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
1.7
2.4
−0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.4
1.9
−0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.2
1.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.7
1.4
−0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.1
0.8
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.4
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 23 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 0.4
2026-09-23
NYL
AWAY
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
50.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-09-19
CHI
HOME
1.2MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
2
2026-09-17
CON
HOME
4.6MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
19.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
5
2026-07-11
POR
HOME
1.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-07-04
GSV
HOME
4.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-07-02
WAS
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
34.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-06-27
SEA
AWAY
1.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
31.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-26
GSV
AWAY
0.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-06-24
GSV
AWAY
11.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.8
USG%
16.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+14
PRA
4
2026-06-22
TOR
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
38.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-06-20
IND
HOME
1.8MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
22.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2026-06-14
TOR
AWAY
1.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
1
2026-06-11
NYL
HOME
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-09
CHI
AWAY
0.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-06
WAS
HOME
7.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-3
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
23.1
USG%
23.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2026-06-04
IND
AWAY
1.3MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.8
USG%
30.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
1
2026-06-02
CON
HOME
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-05-29
POR
AWAY
3.5MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
24.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
5
2026-05-27
MIN
AWAY
5.4MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
32.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
4
2026-05-24
PHO
HOME
1.5MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
150.0
USG%
29.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-05-22
DAL
HOME
5.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
27.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-05-17
LVA
HOME
9.8MIN
0POINTS
6 · 3 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
9
2026-05-12
DAL
AWAY
1.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
every game on file — nothing hidden