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Jordan Harrison in blowouts

16 of 16 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
8 of these · baseline 8 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (4.1 pts) against in closer games (6.0), -1.9, t = -1.13, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.2). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.1
6.0
−1.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.1
2.4
−1.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
assists
3.4
5.0
−1.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.0
0.4
+0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
2.0
2.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.6
13.4
−4.8
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
5.3
8.4
−3.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
7.5
11.0
−3.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.5
7.4
−2.9
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.6
1.9
−1.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
3.4
4.6
−1.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.3
2.1
−0.9
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.8
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.3
1.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.5
1.9
+0.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 189 (this player's own top tercile)
6 of these · baseline 10 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.5 pts) against other games (5.4), -0.9, t = -0.45, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.5
5.4
−0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.7
1.2
+1.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
assists
3.5
4.6
−1.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.0
2.6
−1.6
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
MEASURED
pts+reb+ast
10.7
11.2
−0.5
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.2
6.6
+0.6
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
8.0
10.0
−2.0
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
6.2
5.8
+0.4
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.0
0.7
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.8
0.9
+0.9
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.2
3.9
+0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.5
1.8
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.3
2.0
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.2
1.4
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
2.3
2.1
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.0
1.7
−0.7
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 174 (this player's own bottom tercile)
6 of these · baseline 10 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.5 pts) against other games (5.4), -0.9, t = -0.55, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.2).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.5
5.4
−0.9
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.9
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
4.0
4.3
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.9
−0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.3
1.8
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
10.0
11.6
−1.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.0
7.3
−1.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
8.5
9.7
−1.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
5.5
6.2
−0.7
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
1.0
−0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.0
1.4
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.7
4.2
−0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.7
1.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.5
1.9
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.0
1.5
−0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.5
2.6
−1.1
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.7
1.3
+0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 16 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 6.0
2026-09-22
GSV
HOME
16.1MIN
6POINTS
2 · 10 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
43.6
USG%
23.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
18
2026-09-20
LAS
AWAY
23.0MIN
2POINTS
3 · 4 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
20.0
USG%
11.3
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-5
PRA
9
2026-09-18
GSV
AWAY
5.8MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
69.4
USG%
34.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
3
2026-09-17
PHO
HOME
27.8MIN
8POINTS
2 · 10 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
1-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
59.2
USG%
20.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
6
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
20
2026-08-30
GSV
HOME
18.1MIN
7POINTS
2 · 6 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
1-4
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
51.8
USG%
31.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
15
2026-08-28
ATL
AWAY
11.0MIN
7POINTS
1 · 4 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
73.5
USG%
25.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+5
PRA
12
2026-08-25
DAL
AWAY
2.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
2
2026-08-23
WAS
HOME
10.1MIN
4POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
51.5
USG%
25.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
7
2026-08-16
PHO
AWAY
12.4MIN
6POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-6
BELOW
FG
3-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
21.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
10
2026-08-12
MIN
HOME
18.2MIN
6POINTS
3 · 3 · 3-4
BELOW
FG
3-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
61.5
USG%
21.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
12
2026-08-08
SEA
HOME
28.5MIN
13POINTS
7 · 6 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
1-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/7
TS%
60.4
USG%
22.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+3
PRA
26
2026-08-06
TOR
HOME
10.9MIN
8POINTS
0 · 4 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
92.6
USG%
29.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+6
PRA
12
2026-07-18
MIN
AWAY
9.2MIN
5POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
62.5
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
10
2026-06-28
WAS
AWAY
7.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 4 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
4
2026-06-26
CHI
AWAY
13.3MIN
3POINTS
2 · 3 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
30.7
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-7
PRA
8
2026-05-09
CHI
HOME
11.5MIN
4POINTS
0 · 4 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
31.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
8
every game on file — nothing hidden