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Jovana Nogic in blowouts

16 of 16 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
6 of these · baseline 10 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (11.8 pts) against in closer games (9.5), +2.3, t = 0.75, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 6.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
11.8
9.5
+2.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
1.1
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.2
1.9
−0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
3.0
1.4
+1.6
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
MEASURED
steals
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.0
1.1
+0.9
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
14.0
12.5
+1.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
12.8
10.6
+2.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
13.0
11.4
+1.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.2
3.0
−0.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
6.7
7.9
−1.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
3.8
2.7
+1.1
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.3
3.0
−1.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.2
2.7
−1.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
2.8
−1.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
5.0
4.6
+0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 174 (this player's own top tercile)
6 of these · baseline 10 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (13.8 pts) against other games (8.3), +5.5, t = 1.54, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 7.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
13.8
8.3
+5.5
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.3
0.9
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.3
1.8
−0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
2.7
1.6
+1.1
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.2
0.9
−0.7
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.7
1.3
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
16.5
11.0
+5.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
15.2
9.2
+6.0
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
15.2
10.1
+5.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 7.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.7
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.9
−0.7
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
8.8
6.6
+2.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
4.2
2.5
+1.7
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
MEASURED
free throw attempts
3.2
1.9
+1.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
2.8
1.7
+1.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.7
0.3
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
3.0
1.8
+1.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
5.7
4.2
+1.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 162 (this player's own bottom tercile)
7 of these · baseline 9 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (8.6 pts) against other games (11.8), -3.2, t = -1.07, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 5.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.6
11.8
−3.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.1
1.0
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.6
1.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.7
2.2
−0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.4
1.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
11.3
14.4
−3.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.7
12.8
−3.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
10.1
13.4
−3.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.7
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.9
0.4
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
7.0
7.8
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.7
3.4
−0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.7
2.9
−1.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.4
2.7
−1.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
2.9
−1.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
4.7
4.8
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 16 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 9.5
2026-06-17
LVA
HOME
21.4MIN
12POINTS
0 · 0 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
4-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
85.7
USG%
20.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
12
2026-06-13
LAS
HOME
14.7MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
12.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
6
2026-06-11
DAL
AWAY
16.4MIN
7POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
43.8
USG%
25.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
10
2026-06-09
GSV
AWAY
9.2MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
3
2026-06-05
POR
AWAY
30.3MIN
9POINTS
2 · 6 · 3-11
BELOW
FG
3-11
3PT
0-7
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
35.3
USG%
20.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+10
PRA
17
2026-06-03
SEA
AWAY
11.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
69.4
USG%
11.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
8
2026-06-01
MIN
HOME
16.0MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-6
BELOW
FG
3-6
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
66.7
USG%
22.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
9
2026-05-29
NYL
AWAY
12.2MIN
8POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
2-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.8
USG%
36.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
8
2026-05-27
NYL
AWAY
14.0MIN
9POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
3-5
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
82.7
USG%
25.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
12
2026-05-24
ATL
AWAY
20.6MIN
11POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
2-4
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
53.3
USG%
31.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
12
2026-05-21
LAS
HOME
29.7MIN
15POINTS
1 · 3 · 5-11
ABOVE
FG
5-11
3PT
3-6
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
60.9
USG%
18.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-5
PRA
19
2026-05-19
TOR
HOME
29.5MIN
13POINTS
0 · 3 · 4-15
ABOVE
FG
4-15
3PT
2-9
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
39.8
USG%
27.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-19
PRA
16
2026-05-15
CHI
HOME
31.0MIN
27POINTS
4 · 0 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
5-8
FT
10-11
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
85.2
USG%
22.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+23
PRA
31
2026-05-12
MIN
HOME
17.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-6
BELOW
FG
0-6
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
14.5
USG%
18.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+5
PRA
5
2026-05-10
GSV
AWAY
27.3MIN
16POINTS
1 · 1 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
4-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
116.3
USG%
20.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
5
+/−
+3
PRA
18
2026-05-09
LVA
AWAY
21.1MIN
19POINTS
0 · 4 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
4-5
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
93.1
USG%
23.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+26
PRA
23
every game on file — nothing hidden