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Juste Jocyte in blowouts

17 of 17 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
14 of these · baseline 3 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (3.6 pts) against in closer games (1.0), +2.6, t = 1.86, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.7). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.6
1.0
+2.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.9
0.0
+0.9
gap is 2.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.1
0.7
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.5
1.7
+3.8
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.4
1.0
+3.4
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.6
1.7
+3.0
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.9
0.7
+1.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.6
0.0
+0.6
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.7
3.0
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.2
0.3
+0.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.6
1.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 167 (this player's own top tercile)
6 of these · baseline 11 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.0 pts) against other games (2.6), +1.4, t = 0.86, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.0
2.6
+1.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
5.5
4.5
+1.0
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.5
3.5
+1.0
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.0
3.6
+1.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.5
1.8
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.5
2.4
+1.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.3
0.9
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.7
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.0
1.4
+0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 146 (this player's own bottom tercile)
6 of these · baseline 11 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.8 pts) against other games (3.8), -2.0, t = -0.99, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.8
3.8
−2.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.7
1.2
−0.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.0
5.8
−2.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.3
4.6
−2.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.5
5.0
−2.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.2
2.0
−0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.2
0.6
−0.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.5
3.5
−2.0
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.7
1.3
−0.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.0
0.5
−0.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.0
0.5
−0.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.2
1.0
−0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.7
2.1
−1.4
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 17 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
DAL
HOME
3.1MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
30.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
3
2026-09-19
SEA
HOME
13.4MIN
11POINTS
3 · 3 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
3-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
78.6
USG%
28.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
17
2026-09-18
POR
HOME
17.4MIN
9POINTS
2 · 2 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
18.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
6
+/−
+9
PRA
13
2026-08-30
POR
AWAY
21.1MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-6
ABOVE
FG
1-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
16.7
USG%
16.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-11
PRA
5
2026-08-27
NYL
AWAY
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2026-08-26
CON
AWAY
14.1MIN
2POINTS
0 · 3 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
6.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
5
2026-08-24
MIN
AWAY
0.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-12
CHI
HOME
2.4MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2026-07-10
CON
AWAY
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
42.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-06-28
NYL
HOME
1.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
26.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-06-21
LVA
AWAY
6.0MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-4
ABOVE
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
30.7
USG%
38.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
6
2026-06-15
LAS
HOME
2.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
21.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-06-04
MIN
AWAY
6.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
27.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-06-02
POR
HOME
13.1MIN
8POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
36.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
11
2026-05-31
LVA
HOME
5.5MIN
5POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
86.8
USG%
22.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+10
PRA
7
2026-05-28
IND
HOME
15.9MIN
3POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-4
ABOVE
FG
1-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
37.5
USG%
16.5
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
5
2026-05-25
CON
HOME
4.8MIN
5POINTS
0 · 2 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
125.0
USG%
26.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
7
every game on file — nothing hidden