Kaitlyn Chen over 4.5 points
She has cleared 4.5 in 35 of 80 games — 43.8%. That rate needs +128 to break even and books have been paying -123.
01
Distribution
80 games · hover a bucket0–2 points · 20 games · 25.0% · under20
2–4 points · 21 games · 26.3% · under21
4–6 points · 9 games · 11.3% · under9
6–8 points · 8 games · 10.0% · over8
8–10 points · 5 games · 6.3% · over5
10–12 points · 6 games · 7.5% · over6
12–14 points · 1 game · 1.3% · over1
14–16 points · 5 games · 6.3% · over5
16–18 points · 2 games · 2.5% · over2
18–20 points · 2 games · 2.5% · over2
20–22 points · 1 game · 1.3% · over1
4.5
UNDER · 45OVER · 35 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 4.5 · hover a bar2026-07-18 · WAS · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-07-20 · WAS · 20 points · +15.5 vs line
2026-07-29 · PHO · 4 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-08-02 · TOR · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-04 · TOR · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-07 · DAL · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-09 · LAS · 6 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-08-12 · CHI · 6 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-08-17 · DAL · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-19 · MIN · 0 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-08-21 · CHI · 7 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-08-24 · MIN · 3 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-08-26 · CON · 10 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-08-27 · NYL · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-30 · POR · 15 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-09-18 · POR · 17 points · +12.5 vs line
2026-09-19 · SEA · 10 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-09-22 · POR · 0 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-09-24 · LAS · 18 points · +13.5 vs line
2026-09-27 · DAL · 8 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-09-30 · DAL · 4 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-10-02 · DAL · 0 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-10-04 · LVA · 11 points · +6.5 vs line
2026-10-07 · LVA · 7 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-10-09 · LVA · 6 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-10-17 · ATL · 5 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-10-19 · ATL · 8 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-10-21 · ATL · 2 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-10-24 · ATL · 0 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-10-26 · ATL · 0 points · −4.5 vs line
4.5
2026-07-18— 5-game mean2026-10-26 · newest
03
Recent form
50.0%5/10 · last 10
2026-09-30 · 4 points · UNDER
4
2026-10-02 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-10-04 · 11 points · OVER
11
2026-10-07 · 7 points · OVER
7
2026-10-09 · 6 points · OVER
6
2026-10-17 · 5 points · OVER
5
2026-10-19 · 8 points · OVER
8
2026-10-21 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-10-24 · 0 points · UNDER
0
2026-10-26 · 0 points · UNDER
0
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 17 postings4.5-123
best offered4.5+100
worst offered4.5-137
our break-even4.5+128
Median -123 across 17 postings over 3 games. Her rate has never been worth that price.
05
Game log
25 of 80 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 4.5
2026-10-26PLAYOFF R3 G5ATLHOME2.8MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0UNDER
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 19.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 0
2026-10-24PLAYOFF R3 G4ATLAWAY1.9MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-2UNDER
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 49.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 0
2026-10-21PLAYOFF R3 G3ATLAWAY10.6MIN2POINTS0 · 2 · 1-5UNDER
- FG
- 1-5
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 20.0
- USG%
- 20.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -19
- PRA
- 4
2026-10-19PLAYOFF R3 G2ATLHOME17.7MIN8POINTS1 · 3 · 3-4OVER
- FG
- 3-4
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 82.0
- USG%
- 15.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 12
2026-10-17PLAYOFF R3 G1ATLHOME10.3MIN5POINTS1 · 1 · 2-5OVER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 20.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 7
2026-10-09PLAYOFF R2 G3LVAAWAY7.9MIN6POINTS1 · 2 · 2-2OVER
- FG
- 2-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 104.2
- USG%
- 35.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 9
2026-10-07PLAYOFF R2 G2LVAHOME12.4MIN7POINTS0 · 0 · 3-5OVER
- FG
- 3-5
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 70.0
- USG%
- 27.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 7
2026-10-04PLAYOFF R2 G1LVAHOME22.4MIN11POINTS3 · 1 · 4-11OVER
- FG
- 4-11
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 46.3
- USG%
- 27.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +11
- PRA
- 15
2026-10-02PLAYOFF R1 G3DALHOME6.9MIN0POINTS3 · 0 · 0-2UNDER
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 12.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 3
2026-09-30PLAYOFF R1 G2DALAWAY8.3MIN4POINTS0 · 2 · 2-6UNDER
- FG
- 2-6
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 33.3
- USG%
- 35.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 6
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1DALHOME17.1MIN8POINTS2 · 2 · 3-7OVER
- FG
- 3-7
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 57.1
- USG%
- 19.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 12
2026-09-24LASAWAY21.4MIN18POINTS3 · 2 · 8-12OVER
- FG
- 8-12
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 72.3
- USG%
- 30.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +6
- PRA
- 23
2026-09-22PORAWAY8.5MIN0POINTS0 · 1 · 0-2UNDER
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 11.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 1
2026-09-19SEAHOME28.2MIN10POINTS2 · 2 · 4-12OVER
- FG
- 4-12
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 41.7
- USG%
- 21.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 14
2026-09-18PORHOME25.4MIN17POINTS1 · 3 · 6-10OVER
- FG
- 6-10
- 3PT
- 5-8
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 85.0
- USG%
- 19.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +20
- PRA
- 21
2026-08-30PORAWAY27.2MIN15POINTS1 · 1 · 5-8OVER
- FG
- 5-8
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 2-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 80.5
- USG%
- 18.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 17
2026-08-27NYLAWAY11.2MIN2POINTS0 · 1 · 1-3UNDER
- FG
- 1-3
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 33.3
- USG%
- 17.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 3
2026-08-26CONAWAY19.9MIN10POINTS2 · 2 · 4-6OVER
- FG
- 4-6
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 72.7
- USG%
- 19.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +21
- PRA
- 14
2026-08-24MINAWAY9.9MIN3POINTS0 · 1 · 1-3UNDER
- FG
- 1-3
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 15.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 4
2026-08-21CHIAWAY28.7MIN7POINTS3 · 4 · 3-10OVER
- FG
- 3-10
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 35.0
- USG%
- 20.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -1
- PRA
- 14
2026-08-19MINHOME4.0MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-1UNDER
- FG
- 0-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 10.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 0
2026-08-17DALHOME8.3MIN2POINTS0 · 1 · 1-2UNDER
- FG
- 1-2
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 16.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +8
- PRA
- 3
2026-08-12CHIHOME21.2MIN6POINTS1 · 0 · 2-3OVER
- FG
- 2-3
- 3PT
- 2-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 100.0
- USG%
- 10.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +19
- PRA
- 7
2026-08-09LASAWAY11.2MIN6POINTS1 · 2 · 3-4OVER
- FG
- 3-4
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 75.0
- USG%
- 20.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 9
2026-08-07DALAWAY11.6MIN2POINTS0 · 5 · 1-3UNDER
- FG
- 1-3
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 33.3
- USG%
- 16.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +6
- PRA
- 7
showing 25 of 80 — every rate above is computed over all 80