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Kiki Rice in blowouts

28 of 28 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 8DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (14.5 pts) against in closer games (10.8), +3.7, t = 1.42, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 5.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
14.5
10.8
+3.7
t +1.42 · resolves ±5.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
3.7
3.8
−0.1
t −0.10 · resolves ±2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.3
4.0
−0.8
t −0.90 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
0.8
+0.3
t +0.55 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.8
+0.1
t +0.12 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.1
+0.1
t +0.78 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.0
1.4
+0.6
t +1.00 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
21.4
18.5
+2.9
t +0.80 · resolves ±7.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
18.1
14.5
+3.6
t +1.16 · resolves ±6.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
17.7
14.8
+2.9
t +0.97 · resolves ±5.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
6.9
7.8
−0.8
t −0.55 · resolves ±3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.1
0.9
+0.2
t +0.40 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 182 (this player's own top tercile)
10 of these · baseline 18NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (13.1 pts) against other games (13.6), -0.5, t = -0.20, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
13.1
13.6
−0.5
t −0.20 · resolves ±4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
4.3
3.3
+1.0
t +1.06 · resolves ±1.8
DIRECTIONAL
assists
4.7
2.8
+1.9
t +2.69 · resolves ±1.4
MEASURED
threes
0.9
0.9
0.0
t −0.12 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.9
0.7
+0.2
t +0.45 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
t +0.75 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.8
1.8
0.0
t +0.04 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
22.1
19.7
+2.4
t +0.80 · resolves ±6.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
17.4
16.9
+0.5
t +0.18 · resolves ±5.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
17.8
16.3
+1.5
t +0.59 · resolves ±4.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
9.0
6.1
+2.9
t +2.28 · resolves ±2.5
MEASURED
steals+blocks
1.2
0.9
+0.3
t +0.70 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 173 (this player's own bottom tercile)
10 of these · baseline 18NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (12.3 pts) against other games (14.0), -1.7, t = -0.62, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 5.3).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
12.3
14.0
−1.7
t −0.62 · resolves ±5.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
3.2
3.9
−0.7
t −0.91 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.0
3.7
−0.7
t −0.93 · resolves ±1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
1.0
−0.2
t −0.57 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.8
0.0
t +0.05 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.2
t −1.20 · resolves ±0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.6
1.9
−0.3
t −0.35 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
18.5
21.7
−3.2
t −0.91 · resolves ±6.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
15.5
17.9
−2.4
t −0.79 · resolves ±6.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
15.3
17.7
−2.4
t −0.78 · resolves ±6.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
6.2
7.7
−1.5
t −1.20 · resolves ±2.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.9
1.1
−0.2
t −0.33 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 28 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 10.8
2026-09-24
CON
AWAY
31.3MIN
28POINTS
8 · 2 · 9-20
ABOVE
FG
9-20
3PT
2-6
FT
8-8
OREB/DREB
4/4
TS%
59.5
USG%
30.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
38
2026-09-22
CHI
AWAY
30.3MIN
9POINTS
3 · 7 · 4-11
BELOW
FG
4-11
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
40.9
USG%
20.5
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
19
2026-09-20
NYL
HOME
29.8MIN
19POINTS
1 · 5 · 9-16
ABOVE
FG
9-16
3PT
1-3
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
57.8
USG%
28.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-25
PRA
25
2026-09-18
IND
HOME
28.9MIN
18POINTS
6 · 5 · 7-18
ABOVE
FG
7-18
3PT
1-3
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
46.6
USG%
33.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
29
2026-08-29
PHO
AWAY
27.9MIN
14POINTS
4 · 5 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
1-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
58.9
USG%
32.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
8
PF
2
+/−
-17
PRA
23
2026-08-28
LVA
AWAY
26.8MIN
10POINTS
1 · 4 · 3-11
BELOW
FG
3-11
3PT
0-3
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
39.2
USG%
23.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-13
PRA
15
2026-08-26
SEA
AWAY
32.5MIN
24POINTS
3 · 5 · 6-12
ABOVE
FG
6-12
3PT
1-3
FT
11-11
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
71.3
USG%
22.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
32
2026-08-23
LVA
HOME
29.8MIN
14POINTS
3 · 5 · 6-14
ABOVE
FG
6-14
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
23.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-18
PRA
22
2026-08-21
POR
HOME
31.8MIN
19POINTS
3 · 4 · 7-9
ABOVE
FG
7-9
3PT
1-2
FT
4-6
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
81.6
USG%
16.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-7
PRA
26
2026-08-19
WAS
AWAY
24.5MIN
19POINTS
0 · 2 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
3-4
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
81.6
USG%
24.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+2
PRA
21
2026-08-18
IND
HOME
29.9MIN
10POINTS
3 · 6 · 4-12
BELOW
FG
4-12
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/0
TS%
38.8
USG%
18.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+2
PRA
19
2026-08-12
DAL
AWAY
31.5MIN
13POINTS
3 · 5 · 5-11
ABOVE
FG
5-11
3PT
0-2
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
52.8
USG%
16.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-7
PRA
21
2026-08-10
ATL
AWAY
30.1MIN
18POINTS
5 · 6 · 7-11
ABOVE
FG
7-11
3PT
1-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
68.2
USG%
19.7
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
29
2026-08-06
POR
AWAY
17.6MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
133.0
USG%
8.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
6
2026-08-04
GSV
AWAY
22.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
25.8
USG%
12.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-15
PRA
3
2026-08-02
GSV
AWAY
26.8MIN
16POINTS
5 · 3 · 6-12
ABOVE
FG
6-12
3PT
0-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
58.1
USG%
26.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-1
PRA
24
2026-07-30
MIN
HOME
23.0MIN
6POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
33.3
USG%
25.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-29
PRA
12
2026-07-28
MIN
AWAY
17.1MIN
4POINTS
3 · 4 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-2
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
27.3
USG%
22.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
0
PRA
11
2026-06-03
NYL
AWAY
23.4MIN
9POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
0-1
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
48.3
USG%
24.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
16
2026-05-30
SEA
HOME
28.0MIN
17POINTS
6 · 1 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-2
FT
9-9
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
71.1
USG%
25.0
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+24
PRA
24
2026-05-27
CHI
AWAY
34.2MIN
14POINTS
8 · 7 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-2
FT
8-9
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
63.9
USG%
17.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+11
PRA
29
2026-05-23
POR
HOME
30.2MIN
19POINTS
5 · 3 · 8-11
ABOVE
FG
8-11
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
74.5
USG%
20.1
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-17
PRA
27
2026-05-21
MIN
AWAY
22.8MIN
11POINTS
6 · 4 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
2-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
62.8
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
21
2026-05-19
PHO
AWAY
34.1MIN
15POINTS
7 · 3 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
2-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
81.5
USG%
14.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+13
PRA
25
2026-05-17
LAS
AWAY
35.0MIN
19POINTS
5 · 2 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
1-3
FT
8-10
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
76.6
USG%
15.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+5
PRA
26
2026-05-15
LAS
AWAY
21.0MIN
11POINTS
0 · 2 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
3-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
78.6
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+15
PRA
13
2026-05-13
SEA
HOME
20.5MIN
12POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
1-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
63.6
USG%
20.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
15
2026-05-08
WAS
HOME
17.6MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden