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Kitija Laksa in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 20 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (6.1 pts) against in closer games (5.0), +1.1, t = 0.66, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.3). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.1
5.0
+1.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
1.5
−0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.4
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.3
0.9
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.5
7.2
+0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.1
6.5
+0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.5
5.7
+0.8
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.4
2.2
−0.9
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.7
1.1
−0.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
5.1
5.3
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.1
1.7
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
3.6
3.4
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 171 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (7.5 pts) against other games (4.5), +3.0, t = 1.66, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.5
4.5
+3.0
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.0
1.4
−0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.4
+0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.6
0.8
+0.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
9.3
6.3
+3.0
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
8.5
5.9
+2.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
8.3
4.9
+3.4
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.8
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
6.3
4.6
+1.7
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.6
1.5
+1.1
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
2.2
1.0
+1.2
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
three-point attempts
4.4
3.0
+1.5
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
MEASURED
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 158 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (3.7 pts) against other games (6.5), -2.8, t = -1.89, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.7
6.5
−2.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.4
1.2
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
1.4
−0.8
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
steals
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.5
8.3
−2.8
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
5.1
7.7
−2.7
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
4.1
7.1
−3.0
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.8
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.7
5.5
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.4
2.2
−0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.5
1.0
−0.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.4
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.9
1.7
−0.8
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
3.1
3.7
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 5.0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
GSV
AWAY
15.2MIN
11POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
3-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
110.0
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
12
2026-09-23
SEA
AWAY
6.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
28.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-15
PRA
0
2026-09-21
PHO
AWAY
9.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
24.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-09-19
PHO
HOME
9.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
20.0
USG%
28.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
4
2026-09-17
LAS
HOME
15.0MIN
10POINTS
4 · 0 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
62.5
USG%
24.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
14
2025-10-05PLAYOFF R3 G2
LVA
AWAY
4.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2025-09-17PLAYOFF R1 G2
NYL
AWAY
4.9MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
29.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2025-09-11
DAL
AWAY
24.3MIN
8POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
80.0
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-25
PRA
10
2025-09-09
LAS
HOME
16.0MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
45.2
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2025-08-22
GSV
HOME
2.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
22.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
0
2025-08-21
LVA
AWAY
6.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2025-08-17
SEA
AWAY
6.2MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2025-08-07
IND
HOME
3.4MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
64.7
USG%
27.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
4
2025-08-03
CHI
AWAY
13.2MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
51.5
USG%
16.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-22
PRA
5
2025-08-01
ATL
AWAY
13.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2025-07-30
IND
AWAY
8.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-13
PRA
0
2025-07-27
WAS
AWAY
11.5MIN
13POINTS
0 · 0 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
2-4
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
78.1
USG%
33.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
13
2025-07-25
NYL
AWAY
17.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-25
PRA
2
2025-07-23
ATL
HOME
12.5MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
34.7
USG%
14.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
3
2025-07-16
MIN
AWAY
29.5MIN
5POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-4
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
33.6
USG%
11.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
-6
PRA
8
2025-07-14
GSV
AWAY
18.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-11
PRA
2
2025-07-09
MIN
HOME
19.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
16.7
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2025-07-07
DAL
HOME
23.8MIN
6POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-10
ABOVE
FG
2-10
3PT
2-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
30.0
USG%
17.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
6
2025-07-03
DAL
AWAY
17.0MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
16.7
USG%
18.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2025-06-29
LVA
HOME
20.5MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
35.7
USG%
15.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
6
2025-06-27
NYL
HOME
27.2MIN
13POINTS
1 · 0 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
65.0
USG%
15.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+9
PRA
14
2025-06-21
CHI
AWAY
28.2MIN
11POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
3-7
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
59.0
USG%
16.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
15
2025-06-19
NYL
AWAY
27.6MIN
13POINTS
1 · 1 · 5-11
ABOVE
FG
5-11
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
59.1
USG%
16.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+17
PRA
15
2025-06-18
CON
AWAY
22.9MIN
11POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-10
ABOVE
FG
4-10
3PT
2-6
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
52.7
USG%
22.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-14
PRA
13
2025-06-15
LVA
AWAY
18.4MIN
4POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
21.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
9
2025-06-11
DAL
HOME
27.0MIN
14POINTS
1 · 1 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
4-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
87.5
USG%
14.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+7
PRA
16
2025-06-07
SEA
HOME
30.9MIN
9POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
9.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-23
PRA
11
2025-06-05
GSV
HOME
25.7MIN
6POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
2-4
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
51.0
USG%
11.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+14
PRA
10
2025-06-03
MIN
AWAY
25.3MIN
10POINTS
0 · 0 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
2-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
55.6
USG%
18.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-14
PRA
10
2025-06-01
LAS
AWAY
28.9MIN
15POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-3
FT
7-7
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
92.8
USG%
14.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+2
PRA
18
2025-05-30
MIN
HOME
22.1MIN
2POINTS
2 · 3 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
9.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+8
PRA
7
2025-05-27
CHI
HOME
24.3MIN
18POINTS
0 · 1 · 6-9
ABOVE
FG
6-9
3PT
3-6
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
80.4
USG%
19.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+13
PRA
19
2025-05-25
WAS
HOME
15.7MIN
8POINTS
0 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
80.0
USG%
14.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
8
2025-05-23
SEA
AWAY
15.3MIN
0POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-16
PRA
4
2025-05-21
LAS
HOME
23.4MIN
9POINTS
3 · 4 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
3-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
22.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+3
PRA
16
every game on file — nothing hidden