DIME
Get the picksJoin
points estimatesat home

Laura Juskaite in blowouts

43 of 43 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

THU · SEP 24
TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETprojected starter · 29 projected minutes
OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee
OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot
OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor
OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons
QuestionableMaria CondeBack
AT 26+ MINUTES · 202621 games · 30.2 min · 15.0 points

Tonight's projection is 29 minutes. This is her season at that workload.

WITHOUT MORROW35 games · 25.2 min · 11.6 pointswith her (n=8): 25.7 min · 9.3 pointswith her →
WITHOUT SYKES26 games · 26.9 min · 12.4 pointswith her (n=17): 22.8 min · 9.2 pointswith her →
WITHOUT MABREY11 games · 27.9 min · 14.6 pointswith her (n=32): 24.4 min · 10.0 pointswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
28 of these · baseline 15NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (11.6 pts) against in closer games (10.3), +1.3, t = 0.60, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
11.6
10.3
+1.3
t +0.60 · resolves ±4.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
4.1
4.2
−0.1
t −0.07 · resolves ±1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.8
1.6
+0.2
t +0.40 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
1.0
0.0
t +0.11 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.1
1.7
−0.7
t −1.45 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
t −0.12 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.9
2.5
−0.6
t −1.05 · resolves ±1.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
17.5
16.1
+1.4
t +0.55 · resolves ±5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
15.8
14.5
+1.2
t +0.51 · resolves ±4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
13.4
11.9
+1.5
t +0.63 · resolves ±4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
5.9
5.8
+0.1
t +0.13 · resolves ±1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.3
2.0
−0.7
t −1.35 · resolves ±1.0
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 188 (this player's own top tercile)
15 of these · baseline 28NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (11.5 pts) against other games (11.0), +0.6, t = 0.25, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
11.5
11.0
+0.6
t +0.25 · resolves ±4.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
4.4
4.0
+0.4
t +0.45 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.7
1.7
0.0
t +0.04 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.3
0.9
+0.4
t +1.10 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals
1.5
1.2
+0.3
t +0.53 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
t +0.80 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.7
2.3
−0.6
t −1.14 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
17.7
16.7
+1.0
t +0.36 · resolves ±5.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
15.9
15.0
+0.9
t +0.38 · resolves ±4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
13.3
12.7
+0.6
t +0.23 · resolves ±5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
6.1
5.8
+0.4
t +0.40 · resolves ±1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.8
1.4
+0.4
t +0.73 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 172 (this player's own bottom tercile)
15 of these · baseline 28MEASURED

low-scoring games (8.7 pts) against other games (12.5), -3.8, t = -2.09, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 3.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.7
12.5
−3.8
t −2.09 · resolves ±3.6
MEASURED
rebounds
4.4
4.0
+0.4
t +0.45 · resolves ±1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.3
1.9
−0.6
t −1.52 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.9
1.1
−0.1
t −0.42 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.9
1.5
−0.7
t −1.73 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
t −0.62 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.2
2.0
+0.2
t +0.28 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
14.4
18.5
−4.1
t −1.64 · resolves ±4.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
13.1
16.5
−3.5
t −1.54 · resolves ±4.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
10.0
14.4
−4.4
t −2.17 · resolves ±4.0
MEASURED
reb+ast
5.7
6.0
−0.2
t −0.22 · resolves ±2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.1
1.8
−0.8
t −1.71 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 43 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 10.3
2026-09-22
CHI
AWAY
28.2MIN
20POINTS
3 · 4 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
3-4
FT
5-6
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
79.1
USG%
25.9
STL
4
BLK
1
TOV
5
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
27
2026-09-20
NYL
HOME
30.4MIN
28POINTS
2 · 0 · 10-15
ABOVE
FG
10-15
3PT
0-2
FT
8-8
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
75.6
USG%
28.0
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-14
PRA
30
2026-09-18
IND
HOME
30.1MIN
22POINTS
3 · 2 · 8-15
ABOVE
FG
8-15
3PT
2-6
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
64.0
USG%
27.7
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-14
PRA
27
2026-08-29
PHO
AWAY
27.2MIN
10POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-3
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
54.3
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-35
PRA
15
2026-08-28
LVA
AWAY
27.9MIN
14POINTS
8 · 2 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
1-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
58.9
USG%
22.5
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-17
PRA
24
2026-08-26
SEA
AWAY
29.4MIN
14POINTS
9 · 3 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
1-3
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
2/7
TS%
61.2
USG%
17.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
26
2026-08-23
LVA
HOME
28.5MIN
11POINTS
6 · 2 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
2-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
69.8
USG%
24.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
7
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
19
2026-08-21
POR
HOME
30.5MIN
15POINTS
7 · 4 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-4
FT
8-10
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
72.1
USG%
24.6
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
6
PF
5
+/−
0
PRA
26
2026-08-19
WAS
AWAY
29.2MIN
12POINTS
2 · 4 · 6-12
ABOVE
FG
6-12
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
21.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-14
PRA
18
2026-08-18
IND
HOME
19.7MIN
2POINTS
6 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-3
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
17.4
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
8
2026-08-12
DAL
AWAY
32.0MIN
18POINTS
7 · 0 · 8-17
ABOVE
FG
8-17
3PT
1-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
51.6
USG%
24.3
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
25
2026-08-10
ATL
AWAY
13.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-16
PRA
1
2026-08-06
POR
AWAY
26.3MIN
12POINTS
6 · 3 · 5-14
ABOVE
FG
5-14
3PT
0-5
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
39.2
USG%
28.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-8
PRA
21
2026-08-04
GSV
AWAY
25.1MIN
11POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
1-3
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
62.8
USG%
21.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
15
2026-08-02
GSV
AWAY
34.7MIN
15POINTS
4 · 2 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
1-3
FT
4-6
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
77.8
USG%
14.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-21
PRA
21
2026-07-30
MIN
HOME
29.6MIN
19POINTS
5 · 3 · 7-12
ABOVE
FG
7-12
3PT
2-4
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
69.0
USG%
27.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-27
PRA
27
2026-07-28
MIN
AWAY
33.7MIN
18POINTS
4 · 1 · 7-14
ABOVE
FG
7-14
3PT
3-7
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
60.5
USG%
22.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-7
PRA
23
2026-07-20
LVA
HOME
29.0MIN
6POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
1-5
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
30.4
USG%
16.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-24
PRA
10
2026-07-17
ATL
HOME
27.8MIN
8POINTS
4 · 0 · 4-8
BELOW
FG
4-8
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
19.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
12
2026-07-14
WAS
HOME
24.7MIN
7POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
0-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
39.4
USG%
20.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
12
2026-07-12
NYL
HOME
30.8MIN
18POINTS
4 · 3 · 7-8
ABOVE
FG
7-8
3PT
2-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
101.4
USG%
19.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
6
PF
5
+/−
+12
PRA
25
2026-07-10
DAL
HOME
36.4MIN
25POINTS
3 · 3 · 10-16
ABOVE
FG
10-16
3PT
3-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
74.1
USG%
22.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
31
2026-07-08
GSV
HOME
18.3MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
86.8
USG%
15.7
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
5
+/−
+7
PRA
6
2026-07-05
DAL
HOME
23.9MIN
8POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-7
BELOW
FG
3-7
3PT
1-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
50.8
USG%
16.3
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
14
2026-06-27
PHO
HOME
10.5MIN
0POINTS
4 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
5
2026-06-25
LAS
HOME
20.1MIN
10POINTS
12 · 2 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
6/6
TS%
38.5
USG%
25.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+14
PRA
24
2026-06-22
ATL
AWAY
22.0MIN
8POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
61.3
USG%
17.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+9
PRA
12
2026-06-19
CON
AWAY
29.3MIN
4POINTS
7 · 4 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
28.6
USG%
15.8
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
5
+/−
+7
PRA
15
2026-06-16
IND
AWAY
24.6MIN
19POINTS
2 · 4 · 8-11
ABOVE
FG
8-11
3PT
2-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
80.0
USG%
23.7
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-8
PRA
25
2026-06-14
ATL
HOME
25.9MIN
5POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.6
USG%
18.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-16
PRA
10
2026-06-12
WAS
AWAY
22.8MIN
8POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-3
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
51.5
USG%
17.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-9
PRA
8
2026-06-10
CON
HOME
36.7MIN
19POINTS
6 · 2 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
1-1
FT
8-8
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
90.3
USG%
13.1
STL
4
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+16
PRA
27
2026-06-07
CHI
HOME
22.5MIN
10POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-10
BELOW
FG
2-10
3PT
0-3
FT
6-7
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
38.2
USG%
23.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+7
PRA
15
2026-06-03
NYL
AWAY
19.9MIN
8POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
40.5
USG%
23.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
-21
PRA
15
2026-05-30
SEA
HOME
25.1MIN
14POINTS
5 · 1 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
4-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
87.5
USG%
16.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+25
PRA
20
2026-05-27
CHI
AWAY
21.9MIN
7POINTS
2 · 2 · 3-4
BELOW
FG
3-4
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
87.5
USG%
9.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+8
PRA
11
2026-05-23
POR
HOME
19.9MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
43.6
USG%
9.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
6
2026-05-21
MIN
AWAY
26.5MIN
7POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
44.4
USG%
18.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
5
+/−
-22
PRA
12
2026-05-19
PHO
AWAY
23.4MIN
10POINTS
5 · 0 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
2-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
85.0
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+9
PRA
15
2026-05-17
LAS
AWAY
20.7MIN
7POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
59.5
USG%
16.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+1
PRA
13
2026-05-15
LAS
AWAY
25.1MIN
16POINTS
3 · 4 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
2-4
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
71.4
USG%
21.0
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+19
PRA
23
2026-05-13
SEA
HOME
7.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
1
2026-05-08
WAS
HOME
15.1MIN
7POINTS
6 · 0 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
59.5
USG%
22.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+1
PRA
13
every game on file — nothing hidden