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Lauren Betts in blowouts

46 of 46 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
21 of these · baseline 25 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (6.0 pts) against in closer games (6.4), -0.4, t = -0.37, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.9). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.0
6.4
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
4.5
4.7
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.0
1.2
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.9
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
11.5
12.2
−0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
10.5
11.0
−0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.0
7.6
−0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
5.5
5.9
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.5
1.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
3.4
3.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.9
4.6
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.4
2.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.7
2.1
−0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.1
1.5
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.0
1.4
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
1.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 172 (this player's own top tercile)
16 of these · baseline 30 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (6.4 pts) against other games (6.1), +0.3, t = 0.28, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.4
6.1
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
4.2
4.8
−0.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.2
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.9
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
1.1
−0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
11.8
12.0
−0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
10.6
10.9
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.6
7.2
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
5.4
5.9
−0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.3
1.5
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
3.2
3.5
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.6
4.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.2
2.6
−0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
2.8
1.4
+1.4
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
MEASURED
free throws made
2.0
1.0
+1.0
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
1.0
1.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.4
1.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 157 (this player's own bottom tercile)
16 of these · baseline 30 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (5.3 pts) against other games (6.7), -1.4, t = -1.56, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.3
6.7
−1.4
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
5.4
4.2
+1.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.1
1.1
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
11.8
12.0
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
10.7
10.8
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.4
7.8
−1.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
6.5
5.3
+1.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
1.4
1.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
3.7
3.2
+0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.7
4.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.3
2.5
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.3
2.3
−1.0
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.7
1.7
−1.0
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
offensive rebounds
1.7
1.0
+0.7
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.7
1.2
+0.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 46 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 6.4
2026-09-30PLAYOFF R1 G2
ATL
HOME
11.0MIN
0POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
4
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
ATL
AWAY
22.7MIN
2POINTS
4 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
25.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
3
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
7
2026-09-24
CHI
HOME
21.5MIN
8POINTS
8 · 3 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-0
FT
0-3
OREB/DREB
3/5
TS%
42.9
USG%
21.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
0
PRA
19
2026-09-22
CON
HOME
25.1MIN
7POINTS
7 · 2 · 3-14
ABOVE
FG
3-14
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
6/1
TS%
23.5
USG%
27.0
STL
0
BLK
4
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+13
PRA
16
2026-09-20
IND
AWAY
23.7MIN
5POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-2
BELOW
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
86.8
USG%
9.4
STL
3
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
10
2026-09-17
CHI
AWAY
23.5MIN
9POINTS
8 · 2 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-0
FT
5-7
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
49.6
USG%
18.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
19
2026-08-28
LAS
AWAY
17.6MIN
6POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
56.4
USG%
14.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
12
2026-08-27
PHO
AWAY
19.3MIN
6POINTS
6 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
61.5
USG%
16.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
13
2026-08-25
PHO
AWAY
24.1MIN
10POINTS
8 · 1 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
0-0
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
2/6
TS%
60.1
USG%
15.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+17
PRA
19
2026-08-23
POR
AWAY
16.9MIN
5POINTS
8 · 2 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/8
TS%
56.3
USG%
11.2
STL
1
BLK
3
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+22
PRA
15
2026-08-21
MIN
HOME
12.6MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
54.3
USG%
9.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-08-19
TOR
HOME
21.7MIN
7POINTS
3 · 3 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
64.3
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
13
2026-08-15
LAS
HOME
21.5MIN
8POINTS
5 · 1 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
16.7
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+15
PRA
14
2026-08-13
LVA
AWAY
19.4MIN
4POINTS
6 · 1 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
58.1
USG%
13.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
11
2026-08-11
LVA
AWAY
14.2MIN
4POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-2
BELOW
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
100.0
USG%
6.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-15
PRA
9
2026-08-09
PHO
HOME
17.8MIN
6POINTS
6 · 1 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
60.0
USG%
15.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
13
2026-08-07
ATL
HOME
21.1MIN
5POINTS
11 · 2 · 2-2
BELOW
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
2/9
TS%
66.5
USG%
9.6
STL
1
BLK
3
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
18
2026-08-05
DAL
HOME
18.9MIN
6POINTS
7 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/6
TS%
61.5
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
14
2026-07-31
DAL
HOME
17.1MIN
3POINTS
7 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
38.7
USG%
9.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-07-28
CON
HOME
14.5MIN
8POINTS
8 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
70.9
USG%
19.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
17
2026-07-22
LVA
HOME
19.9MIN
13POINTS
3 · 2 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
0-0
FT
5-6
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
75.2
USG%
17.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
18
2026-07-20
GSV
AWAY
14.0MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
19.9
STL
0
BLK
4
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-13
PRA
6
2026-07-18
GSV
AWAY
20.5MIN
6POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
60.0
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
11
2026-07-16
POR
HOME
12.3MIN
6POINTS
4 · 0 · 3-6
BELOW
FG
3-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
20.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
10
2026-07-14
TOR
AWAY
19.6MIN
6POINTS
6 · 0 · 3-4
BELOW
FG
3-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
75.0
USG%
10.9
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
12
2026-07-12
SEA
HOME
16.4MIN
11POINTS
2 · 3 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
59.0
USG%
26.0
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+9
PRA
16
2026-07-06
GSV
HOME
16.3MIN
7POINTS
5 · 3 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
47.0
USG%
28.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
15
2026-07-02
ATL
HOME
12.3MIN
4POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-2
BELOW
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
100.0
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
9
2026-06-28
POR
HOME
12.9MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
29.1
USG%
24.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
7
2026-06-26
CON
AWAY
17.3MIN
5POINTS
6 · 2 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
37.0
USG%
20.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+10
PRA
13
2026-06-24
MIN
HOME
16.4MIN
4POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
66.7
USG%
16.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
9
2026-06-21
MIN
AWAY
17.6MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
7.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+11
PRA
4
2026-06-19
NYL
AWAY
17.4MIN
8POINTS
5 · 0 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
62.1
USG%
19.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
13
2026-06-17
CON
AWAY
32.2MIN
13POINTS
7 · 3 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
0-0
FT
9-10
OREB/DREB
1/6
TS%
57.0
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+12
PRA
23
2026-06-14
NYL
AWAY
24.4MIN
4POINTS
6 · 1 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
58.1
USG%
6.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-17
PRA
11
2026-06-12
TOR
HOME
20.7MIN
18POINTS
4 · 1 · 8-9
ABOVE
FG
8-9
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
91.1
USG%
25.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
23
2026-06-08
IND
HOME
12.2MIN
8POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
80.0
USG%
19.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
12
2026-06-06
ATL
AWAY
15.7MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
61.5
USG%
17.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
8
2026-06-02
CHI
HOME
15.0MIN
8POINTS
4 · 0 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
20.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
12
2026-05-29
LAS
HOME
10.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
13.0
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-05-27
SEA
AWAY
11.3MIN
6POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
79.8
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
9
2026-05-24
SEA
AWAY
13.2MIN
6POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
52.1
USG%
26.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
9
2026-05-18
DAL
AWAY
14.6MIN
11POINTS
3 · 0 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
73.9
USG%
26.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
14
2026-05-15
IND
AWAY
13.9MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
69.4
USG%
12.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-5
PRA
6
2026-05-10
NYL
HOME
18.4MIN
7POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
44.4
USG%
18.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
10
2026-05-08
TOR
AWAY
12.0MIN
0POINTS
5 · 1 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
6
every game on file — nothing hidden