Lauren Betts in blowouts

44 of 44 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10

19 of these · baseline 25NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (6.5 pts) against in closer games (6.4), +0.2, t = 0.18, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT

BLOWOUTS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

6.5

6.4

+0.2

t +0.18 · resolves ±1.8

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

4.5

4.7

−0.2

t −0.22 · resolves ±1.4

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

1.1

1.2

−0.1

t −0.32 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.6

0.5

+0.1

t +0.47 · resolves ±0.5

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.8

0.0

t +0.01 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

0.7

1.0

−0.3

t −1.08 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

12.2

−0.1

t −0.06 · resolves ±2.7

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

11.1

11.0

0.0

t +0.01 · resolves ±2.4

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

7.6

+0.1

t +0.07 · resolves ±2.0

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

5.6

5.9

−0.2

t −0.30 · resolves ±1.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

1.5

1.4

+0.1

t +0.28 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

high-scoring games

combined score >= 175 (this player's own top tercile)

15 of these · baseline 29NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (6.5 pts) against other games (6.4), +0.2, t = 0.16, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.9).

STAT

HIGH TOTAL

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

6.5

6.4

+0.2

t +0.16 · resolves ±1.9

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

4.3

4.8

−0.4

t −0.49 · resolves ±1.7

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

1.3

1.1

+0.2

t +0.54 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.3

0.7

−0.4

t −1.76 · resolves ±0.4

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.7

0.9

−0.2

t −0.50 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

0.7

1.0

−0.4

t −1.36 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

12.1

12.2

−0.1

t −0.07 · resolves ±3.2

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

10.9

11.1

−0.3

t −0.18 · resolves ±2.9

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

7.8

7.5

+0.3

t +0.28 · resolves ±2.2

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

5.6

5.9

−0.3

t −0.26 · resolves ±2.0

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

1.1

1.6

−0.5

t −1.38 · resolves ±0.7

DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games

combined score <= 156 (this player's own bottom tercile)

15 of these · baseline 29DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (5.4 pts) against other games (7.0), -1.6, t = -1.81, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7).

STAT

LOW TOTALS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

5.4

7.0

−1.6

t −1.81 · resolves ±1.7

DIRECTIONAL

rebounds

5.5

4.2

+1.3

t +1.90 · resolves ±1.3

DIRECTIONAL

assists

1.1

1.2

0.0

t −0.14 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.5

0.6

−0.2

t −0.69 · resolves ±0.4

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

1.1

0.7

+0.3

t +0.96 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

0.8

1.0

−0.2

t −0.53 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

12.0

12.3

−0.3

t −0.24 · resolves ±2.5

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

10.9

11.1

−0.3

t −0.24 · resolves ±2.2

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

6.5

8.1

−1.6

t −1.66 · resolves ±1.9

DIRECTIONAL

reb+ast

6.6

5.3

+1.3

t +1.50 · resolves ±1.6

DIRECTIONAL

steals+blocks

1.5

1.3

+0.2

t +0.43 · resolves ±0.9

NOT MEASURABLE

Game log

all 44 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 6.4

2026-09-24

CHI

HOME

21.5MIN

8POINTS

8 · 3 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-3
OREB/DREB: 3/5
TS%: 42.9
USG%: 21.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 19

2026-09-22

CON

HOME

25.1MIN

7POINTS

7 · 2 · 3-14

ABOVE

FG: 3-14
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 6/1
TS%: 23.5
USG%: 27.0
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 16

2026-09-20

IND

AWAY

23.7MIN

5POINTS

3 · 2 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 86.8
USG%: 9.4
STL: 3
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 10

2026-09-17

CHI

AWAY

23.5MIN

9POINTS

8 · 2 · 2-6

ABOVE

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 5-7
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 49.6
USG%: 18.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 19

2026-08-28

LAS

AWAY

17.6MIN

6POINTS

4 · 2 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 56.4
USG%: 14.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +5
PRA: 12

2026-08-27

PHO

AWAY

19.3MIN

6POINTS

6 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 16.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +7
PRA: 13

2026-08-25

PHO

AWAY

24.1MIN

10POINTS

8 · 1 · 4-7

ABOVE

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 60.1
USG%: 15.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +17
PRA: 19

2026-08-23

POR

AWAY

16.9MIN

5POINTS

8 · 2 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/8
TS%: 56.3
USG%: 11.2
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +22
PRA: 15

2026-08-21

MIN

HOME

12.6MIN

3POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 9.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 5

2026-08-19

TOR

HOME

21.7MIN

7POINTS

3 · 3 · 3-5

ABOVE

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 64.3
USG%: 12.6
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 13

2026-08-15

LAS

HOME

21.5MIN

8POINTS

5 · 1 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 16.7
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +15
PRA: 14

2026-08-13

LVA

AWAY

19.4MIN

4POINTS

6 · 1 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 58.1
USG%: 13.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 11

2026-08-11

LVA

AWAY

14.2MIN

4POINTS

4 · 1 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 6.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -15
PRA: 9

2026-08-09

PHO

HOME

17.8MIN

6POINTS

6 · 1 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 15.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +7
PRA: 13

2026-08-07

ATL

HOME

21.1MIN

5POINTS

11 · 2 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-4
OREB/DREB: 2/9
TS%: 66.5
USG%: 9.6
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 18

2026-08-05

DAL

HOME

18.9MIN

6POINTS

7 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 14.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 14

2026-07-31

DAL

HOME

17.1MIN

3POINTS

7 · 1 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 38.7
USG%: 9.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 11

2026-07-28

CON

HOME

14.5MIN

8POINTS

8 · 1 · 1-3

ABOVE

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 70.9
USG%: 19.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -2
PRA: 17

2026-07-22

LVA

HOME

19.9MIN

13POINTS

3 · 2 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 75.2
USG%: 17.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -5
PRA: 18

2026-07-20

GSV

AWAY

14.0MIN

4POINTS

2 · 0 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 19.9
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -13
PRA: 6

2026-07-18

GSV

AWAY

20.5MIN

6POINTS

4 · 1 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 12.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 11

2026-07-16

POR

HOME

12.3MIN

6POINTS

4 · 0 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 20.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 10

2026-07-14

TOR

AWAY

19.6MIN

6POINTS

6 · 0 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 10.9
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 12

2026-07-12

SEA

HOME

16.4MIN

11POINTS

2 · 3 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 59.0
USG%: 26.0
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +9
PRA: 16

2026-07-06

GSV

HOME

16.3MIN

7POINTS

5 · 3 · 3-7

ABOVE

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 47.0
USG%: 28.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 15

2026-07-02

ATL

HOME

12.3MIN

4POINTS

4 · 1 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 17.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +6
PRA: 9

2026-06-28

POR

HOME

12.9MIN

4POINTS

2 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 29.1
USG%: 24.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 7

2026-06-26

CON

AWAY

17.3MIN

5POINTS

6 · 2 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-4
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 37.0
USG%: 20.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +10
PRA: 13

2026-06-24

MIN

HOME

16.4MIN

4POINTS

4 · 1 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 16.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 9

2026-06-21

MIN

AWAY

17.6MIN

2POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 7.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 4

2026-06-19

NYL

AWAY

17.4MIN

8POINTS

5 · 0 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 62.1
USG%: 19.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 13

2026-06-17

CON

AWAY

32.2MIN

13POINTS

7 · 3 · 2-7

ABOVE

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 57.0
USG%: 20.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +12
PRA: 23

2026-06-14

NYL

AWAY

24.4MIN

4POINTS

6 · 1 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 58.1
USG%: 6.0
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -17
PRA: 11

2026-06-12

TOR

HOME

20.7MIN

18POINTS

4 · 1 · 8-9

ABOVE

FG: 8-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 91.1
USG%: 25.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: +3
PRA: 23

2026-06-08

IND

HOME

12.2MIN

8POINTS

3 · 1 · 4-5

ABOVE

FG: 4-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 80.0
USG%: 19.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 12

2026-06-06

ATL

AWAY

15.7MIN

6POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 17.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 8

2026-06-02

CHI

HOME

15.0MIN

8POINTS

4 · 0 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 20.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 12

2026-05-29

LAS

HOME

10.4MIN

2POINTS

1 · 0 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 13.0
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -2
PRA: 3

2026-05-27

SEA

AWAY

11.3MIN

6POINTS

3 · 0 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 79.8
USG%: 15.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 9

2026-05-24

SEA

AWAY

13.2MIN

6POINTS

3 · 0 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 26.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -7
PRA: 9

2026-05-18

DAL

AWAY

14.6MIN

11POINTS

3 · 0 · 5-7

ABOVE

FG: 5-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 73.9
USG%: 26.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -7
PRA: 14

2026-05-15

IND

AWAY

13.9MIN

4POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 69.4
USG%: 12.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -5
PRA: 6

2026-05-10

NYL

HOME

18.4MIN

7POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-7

ABOVE

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 44.4
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -7
PRA: 10

2026-05-08

TOR

AWAY

12.0MIN

0POINTS

5 · 1 · 0-4

BELOW

FG: 0-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 14.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 6

every game on file — nothing hidden