Leila Lacan in blowouts

55 of 55 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
29 of these · baseline 26MEASURED

in blowouts (9.4 pts) against in closer games (12.5), -3.1, t = -2.16, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
9.4
12.5
−3.1
t −2.16 · resolves ±2.8
MEASURED
rebounds
2.1
2.1
0.0
t +0.06 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.6
4.7
−1.1
t −1.67 · resolves ±1.3
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.7
1.1
−0.5
t −1.97 · resolves ±0.5
MEASURED
steals
2.0
1.7
+0.3
t +0.66 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
0.0
t +0.29 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.2
2.1
+0.1
t +0.21 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
15.1
19.3
−4.1
t −2.47 · resolves ±3.3
MEASURED
pts+reb
11.6
14.6
−3.0
t −1.94 · resolves ±3.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
13.0
17.2
−4.2
t −2.73 · resolves ±3.0
MEASURED
reb+ast
5.7
6.8
−1.1
t −1.32 · resolves ±1.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
2.3
2.0
+0.3
t +0.82 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 176 (this player's own top tercile)
20 of these · baseline 35NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (11.8 pts) against other games (10.4), +1.4, t = 0.87, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.2).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
11.8
10.4
+1.4
t +0.87 · resolves ±3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.2
2.1
+0.1
t +0.22 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
4.9
3.7
+1.2
t +1.66 · resolves ±1.4
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.2
0.7
+0.4
t +1.60 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals
2.0
1.8
+0.2
t +0.51 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
t +0.44 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.6
2.5
−0.9
t −2.37 · resolves ±0.7
MEASURED
pts+reb+ast
18.8
16.1
+2.7
t +1.39 · resolves ±3.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
14.0
12.4
+1.5
t +0.86 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
16.7
14.1
+2.6
t +1.44 · resolves ±3.5
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
7.0
5.7
+1.3
t +1.42 · resolves ±1.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
2.3
2.0
+0.3
t +0.74 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 159 (this player's own bottom tercile)
19 of these · baseline 36DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (9.5 pts) against other games (11.6), -2.2, t = -1.69, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.5).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
9.5
11.6
−2.2
t −1.69 · resolves ±2.5
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.3
2.0
+0.3
t +0.70 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.3
4.6
−1.3
t −2.14 · resolves ±1.2
MEASURED
threes
0.6
1.0
−0.4
t −2.10 · resolves ±0.4
MEASURED
steals
1.9
1.9
0.0
t +0.06 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
t −1.05 · resolves ±0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
2.4
2.0
+0.4
t +0.68 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
15.1
18.2
−3.1
t −1.98 · resolves ±3.1
MEASURED
pts+reb
11.8
13.6
−1.8
t −1.24 · resolves ±2.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
12.7
16.2
−3.5
t −2.48 · resolves ±2.7
MEASURED
reb+ast
5.6
6.5
−0.9
t −1.23 · resolves ±1.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
2.1
2.2
−0.1
t −0.23 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 55 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 12.5
2026-09-24
TOR
HOME
15.0MIN
2POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
17.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
6
2026-09-22
WAS
AWAY
30.4MIN
11POINTS
2 · 3 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
1-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
39.6
USG%
27.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
6
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
16
2026-09-20
MIN
HOME
28.8MIN
15POINTS
2 · 4 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
3-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
21.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
21
2026-08-22
LAS
AWAY
28.9MIN
13POINTS
0 · 4 · 6-14
ABOVE
FG
6-14
3PT
1-6
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
45.0
USG%
21.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
17
2026-08-20
LVA
AWAY
23.5MIN
11POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
2-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
81.4
USG%
18.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-18
PRA
15
2026-08-18
LAS
HOME
28.5MIN
7POINTS
0 · 10 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
37.1
USG%
17.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
17
2026-08-15
NYL
HOME
30.7MIN
10POINTS
3 · 6 · 4-11
BELOW
FG
4-11
3PT
1-5
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
42.1
USG%
22.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
19
2026-08-13
ATL
HOME
20.2MIN
6POINTS
1 · 4 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
3
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
-22
PRA
11
2026-08-07
PHO
HOME
31.1MIN
9POINTS
3 · 4 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
0-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
41.8
USG%
21.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
0
PRA
16
2026-08-02
DAL
AWAY
25.0MIN
7POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-10
BELOW
FG
3-10
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
35.0
USG%
21.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-18
PRA
10
2026-07-30
CHI
AWAY
28.8MIN
12POINTS
5 · 6 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
1-2
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
68.5
USG%
15.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
23
2026-07-28
WAS
AWAY
32.4MIN
9POINTS
4 · 6 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
34.6
USG%
21.3
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-7
PRA
19
2026-07-22
IND
AWAY
17.0MIN
10POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-11
BELOW
FG
5-11
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
45.5
USG%
28.3
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-26
PRA
14
2026-07-19
PHO
AWAY
36.7MIN
7POINTS
1 · 4 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
35.4
USG%
23.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
9
PF
4
+/−
-10
PRA
12
2026-07-17
PHO
AWAY
28.0MIN
26POINTS
4 · 5 · 10-13
ABOVE
FG
10-13
3PT
1-3
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
85.5
USG%
25.4
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+15
PRA
35
2026-07-14
POR
HOME
29.9MIN
14POINTS
1 · 3 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
64.3
USG%
20.7
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
18
2026-07-10
GSV
HOME
32.0MIN
6POINTS
3 · 7 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
67.6
USG%
10.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-15
PRA
16
2026-07-08
MIN
HOME
28.6MIN
15POINTS
6 · 6 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
2-6
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
72.7
USG%
16.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+5
PRA
27
2026-07-06
MIN
AWAY
34.4MIN
13POINTS
2 · 3 · 5-13
ABOVE
FG
5-13
3PT
2-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
46.8
USG%
17.8
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
18
2026-07-02
DAL
HOME
31.7MIN
18POINTS
2 · 5 · 5-14
ABOVE
FG
5-14
3PT
2-4
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
54.1
USG%
25.2
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
25
2026-06-26
WAS
HOME
28.6MIN
12POINTS
0 · 5 · 4-10
BELOW
FG
4-10
3PT
0-1
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
51.0
USG%
23.6
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
17
2026-06-22
CHI
HOME
20.1MIN
12POINTS
1 · 2 · 5-6
BELOW
FG
5-6
3PT
0-1
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
82.0
USG%
17.6
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+10
PRA
15
2026-06-19
TOR
HOME
31.4MIN
16POINTS
1 · 3 · 5-16
ABOVE
FG
5-16
3PT
2-8
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
44.0
USG%
25.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
20
2026-06-17
WAS
HOME
28.5MIN
11POINTS
2 · 4 · 5-14
BELOW
FG
5-14
3PT
0-4
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
38.1
USG%
26.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
17
2026-06-13
IND
HOME
30.4MIN
11POINTS
1 · 7 · 5-9
BELOW
FG
5-9
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
61.1
USG%
15.0
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-6
PRA
19
2026-06-10
TOR
AWAY
31.7MIN
24POINTS
1 · 7 · 9-16
ABOVE
FG
9-16
3PT
4-8
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
67.6
USG%
25.9
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
6
+/−
-3
PRA
32
2026-06-08
NYL
HOME
25.5MIN
7POINTS
0 · 7 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-4
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
37.1
USG%
18.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-16
PRA
14
2026-06-05
CHI
AWAY
33.5MIN
3POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
0-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
16.9
USG%
14.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
6
+/−
-5
PRA
6
2026-06-02
ATL
AWAY
27.9MIN
11POINTS
2 · 5 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
1-6
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
37.3
USG%
32.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
18
2026-05-30
LAS
HOME
20.5MIN
12POINTS
2 · 3 · 5-14
BELOW
FG
5-14
3PT
1-6
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
38.1
USG%
33.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
17
2025-09-06
PHO
HOME
25.0MIN
14POINTS
1 · 0 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
0-2
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
60.1
USG%
25.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
5
+/−
+1
PRA
15
2025-09-03
CHI
AWAY
22.1MIN
8POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-9
BELOW
FG
4-9
3PT
0-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
42.4
USG%
24.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-16
PRA
12
2025-09-01
ATL
HOME
31.2MIN
17POINTS
3 · 4 · 6-9
ABOVE
FG
6-9
3PT
1-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
79.0
USG%
23.9
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
5
+/−
-7
PRA
24
2025-08-30
MIN
HOME
25.4MIN
6POINTS
1 · 5 · 3-10
BELOW
FG
3-10
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
30.0
USG%
25.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
5
PF
2
+/−
-21
PRA
12
2025-08-27
DAL
AWAY
32.3MIN
22POINTS
3 · 6 · 9-14
ABOVE
FG
9-14
3PT
2-4
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
71.8
USG%
22.9
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
31
2025-08-25
NYL
AWAY
30.7MIN
22POINTS
3 · 3 · 9-15
ABOVE
FG
9-15
3PT
2-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
69.3
USG%
29.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
5
+/−
+3
PRA
28
2025-08-23
CHI
AWAY
19.6MIN
6POINTS
0 · 4 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
60.0
USG%
12.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+12
PRA
10
2025-08-21
WAS
HOME
37.5MIN
5POINTS
3 · 5 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
27.8
USG%
13.9
STL
5
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+11
PRA
13
2025-08-19
WAS
AWAY
34.6MIN
8POINTS
2 · 4 · 4-8
BELOW
FG
4-8
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
14.7
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+13
PRA
14
2025-08-17
IND
HOME
38.3MIN
7POINTS
4 · 14 · 3-6
BELOW
FG
3-6
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
58.3
USG%
7.4
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+1
PRA
25
2025-08-13
CHI
HOME
30.6MIN
17POINTS
4 · 5 · 6-13
ABOVE
FG
6-13
3PT
1-3
FT
4-6
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
54.3
USG%
26.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
26
2025-08-11
GSV
AWAY
33.3MIN
6POINTS
0 · 3 · 2-10
BELOW
FG
2-10
3PT
0-5
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
26.5
USG%
18.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
9
2025-08-10
LVA
AWAY
24.8MIN
13POINTS
0 · 5 · 6-12
ABOVE
FG
6-12
3PT
1-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
54.2
USG%
25.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
0
PRA
18
2025-08-07
LAS
AWAY
26.3MIN
10POINTS
2 · 7 · 5-9
BELOW
FG
5-9
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
55.6
USG%
15.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-7
PRA
19
2025-08-05
PHO
AWAY
22.3MIN
10POINTS
5 · 2 · 4-9
BELOW
FG
4-9
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
50.6
USG%
20.7
STL
6
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+3
PRA
17
2025-08-03
NYL
HOME
15.9MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
40.0
USG%
19.4
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-11
PRA
7
2025-08-01
NYL
HOME
23.1MIN
16POINTS
4 · 1 · 6-8
ABOVE
FG
6-8
3PT
2-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
90.1
USG%
15.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+15
PRA
21
2025-07-28
SEA
HOME
22.2MIN
9POINTS
2 · 4 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
1-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
58.0
USG%
19.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
15
2025-07-27
GSV
HOME
20.7MIN
8POINTS
2 · 2 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
57.1
USG%
15.4
STL
6
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+14
PRA
12
2025-07-24
LAS
HOME
19.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 6 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
12.7
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+3
PRA
9
2025-07-15
IND
HOME
24.2MIN
19POINTS
1 · 1 · 8-13
ABOVE
FG
8-13
3PT
1-3
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.3
USG%
29.2
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
21
2025-07-13
LAS
AWAY
30.7MIN
7POINTS
2 · 4 · 3-7
BELOW
FG
3-7
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
11.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+2
PRA
13
2025-07-11
SEA
AWAY
32.0MIN
10POINTS
7 · 1 · 4-13
BELOW
FG
4-13
3PT
0-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
4/3
TS%
36.0
USG%
27.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
5
+/−
-19
PRA
18
2025-07-09
SEA
HOME
19.3MIN
8POINTS
4 · 3 · 3-6
BELOW
FG
3-6
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
58.1
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+19
PRA
15
2025-07-06
LVA
HOME
23.9MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
86.8
USG%
9.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
6
every game on file — nothing hidden