DIME
Get the picksJoin
points estimatesat home

Mackenzie Holmes in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
31 of these · baseline 9 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (1.9 pts) against in closer games (3.6), -1.7, t = -0.86, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.9
3.6
−1.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.3
2.4
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.7
0.2
+0.5
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
blocks
0.1
0.6
−0.5
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
turnovers
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
4.6
6.7
−2.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.2
6.0
−1.8
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.3
4.2
−1.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.7
3.1
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.5
1.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.3
2.4
−1.1
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.8
1.3
−0.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.0
1.9
−0.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.2
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 171 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (1.9 pts) against other games (2.5), -0.6, t = -0.67, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.8).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.9
2.5
−0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.4
2.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
pts+reb+ast
4.6
5.3
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.2
4.8
−0.6
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.2
3.0
−0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.7
2.9
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.9
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.5
1.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.4
1.7
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.1
0.6
−0.4
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.1
0.4
−0.4
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.7
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.4
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 156 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.9 pts) against other games (2.4), -0.5, t = -0.50, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.9
2.4
−0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.6
2.2
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.1
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.2
+0.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
5.4
4.9
+0.4
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.6
4.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.7
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.4
2.5
+0.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.7
1.5
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.6
1.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.1
1.2
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.4
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.6
2026-09-23
DAL
HOME
6.7MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2026-09-20
LVA
AWAY
16.4MIN
4POINTS
5 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
7.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
9
2026-09-19
GSV
AWAY
14.0MIN
6POINTS
4 · 2 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
23.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
12
2026-09-17
LVA
HOME
10.1MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
8.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-14
PRA
6
2026-08-30
LAS
HOME
3.2MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
52.1
USG%
45.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
5
2026-08-23
DAL
AWAY
2.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
31.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-08-16
CHI
HOME
2.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-07-28
IND
HOME
5.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-8
PRA
2
2026-07-12
WAS
AWAY
2.9MIN
2POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
5
2026-07-06
LAS
AWAY
2.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-07-02
PHO
AWAY
2.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-06-27
ATL
HOME
1.3MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.8
USG%
29.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-06-20
PHO
AWAY
4.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
1
2026-06-17
POR
AWAY
4.3MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-06-12
GSV
HOME
3.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
1
2026-06-10
LAS
HOME
6.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
1
2026-06-08
LVA
AWAY
11.7MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
150.0
USG%
3.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
5
2026-06-06
MIN
AWAY
14.4MIN
1POINTS
4 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
26.6
USG%
8.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
7
2026-06-03
PHO
HOME
18.8MIN
4POINTS
6 · 1 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
40.0
USG%
11.9
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
11
2026-06-01
DAL
AWAY
13.5MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
5
2026-05-30
TOR
AWAY
15.5MIN
6POINTS
7 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
77.3
USG%
13.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
14
2026-05-27
WAS
HOME
19.7MIN
8POINTS
10 · 1 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
4/6
TS%
100.0
USG%
19.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
+6
PRA
19
2026-05-24
WAS
HOME
14.5MIN
2POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
6.3
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
6
2026-05-22
CON
HOME
18.5MIN
2POINTS
6 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
26.6
USG%
12.5
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
9
2026-05-20
CON
HOME
26.0MIN
18POINTS
6 · 1 · 6-8
ABOVE
FG
6-8
3PT
1-1
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
88.2
USG%
17.8
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
25
2026-05-17
IND
AWAY
9.7MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
18.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
5
2026-05-13
TOR
AWAY
5.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
1
2026-05-10
CON
AWAY
22.6MIN
5POINTS
6 · 2 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
41.7
USG%
13.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-4
PRA
13
2026-05-08
GSV
HOME
11.2MIN
2POINTS
6 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
100.0
USG%
4.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
8
2025-09-14PLAYOFF R1 G1
LVA
AWAY
5.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
1
2025-08-30
CHI
HOME
12.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2025-08-26
IND
AWAY
6.3MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.8
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
5
2025-08-22
DAL
AWAY
5.0MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
9.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
3
2025-07-28
CON
AWAY
6.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
1
2025-07-24
CHI
AWAY
5.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2025-07-22
DAL
HOME
3.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2025-07-06
NYL
AWAY
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
0
2025-06-29
GSV
AWAY
4.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
9.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2025-06-27
CON
HOME
7.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
6.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-14
PRA
4
2025-06-17
LAS
AWAY
4.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
1
every game on file — nothing hidden