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Maddy Westbeld in blowouts

36 of 36 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
25 of these · baseline 11 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.0 pts) against in closer games (3.1), +0.9, t = 0.37, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.6). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.0
3.1
+0.9
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
2.5
−0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.8
6.5
+0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.0
5.6
+0.4
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.7
4.0
+0.7
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.8
3.5
−0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.2
2.0
−0.8
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
4.0
3.3
+0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.4
1.0
+0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.7
2.0
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.6
1.5
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 171 (this player's own top tercile)
12 of these · baseline 24 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.2 pts) against other games (3.5), +0.7, t = 0.33, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.2).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.2
3.5
+0.7
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.8
2.4
−0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.7
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
0.5
+0.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
6.8
6.7
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.0
5.9
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.0
4.3
+0.8
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.7
3.2
−0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
1.7
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
3.4
4.0
−0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.5
1.2
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.0
1.7
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.4
1.7
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 152 (this player's own bottom tercile)
13 of these · baseline 23 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (2.8 pts) against other games (4.2), -1.3, t = -0.94, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.8
4.2
−1.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.2
2.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.9
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.5
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.9
7.2
−1.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.0
6.4
−1.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.8
4.9
−1.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.1
3.0
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.5
3.4
+1.1
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.1
1.4
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.1
2.2
−1.1
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
three-point attempts
1.6
1.6
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 36 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.1
2026-09-24
LVA
HOME
12.5MIN
7POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
70.0
USG%
20.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
10
2026-09-21
DAL
HOME
13.7MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
20.5
USG%
16.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-09-19
DAL
AWAY
8.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-09-17
POR
AWAY
9.4MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
29.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
2
2026-08-29
TOR
HOME
22.0MIN
12POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
2-3
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
68.5
USG%
17.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
17
2026-08-27
WAS
HOME
17.3MIN
2POINTS
3 · 2 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
20.0
USG%
20.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-20
PRA
7
2026-08-25
WAS
HOME
8.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2026-07-12
DAL
AWAY
7.8MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-06-22
CON
AWAY
10.8MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
37.5
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-13
PRA
4
2026-06-20
DAL
AWAY
9.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2025-09-11
NYL
HOME
27.7MIN
25POINTS
7 · 3 · 8-12
ABOVE
FG
8-12
3PT
5-6
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/6
TS%
90.8
USG%
24.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+12
PRA
35
2025-09-09
LVA
AWAY
28.0MIN
7POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
1-4
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
51.8
USG%
12.3
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-23
PRA
11
2025-09-07
LVA
AWAY
18.9MIN
2POINTS
3 · 2 · 1-7
BELOW
FG
1-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
14.3
USG%
19.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
7
2025-09-05
IND
AWAY
15.2MIN
7POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
70.0
USG%
18.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-11
PRA
12
2025-09-03
CON
HOME
8.6MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
51.5
USG%
26.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
6
2025-08-15
GSV
HOME
7.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
18.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
3
2025-08-13
CON
AWAY
11.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
3
2025-08-09
IND
AWAY
21.8MIN
10POINTS
6 · 1 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
62.5
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
-4
PRA
17
2025-08-07
ATL
HOME
15.2MIN
6POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
60.0
USG%
16.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
10
2025-08-05
WAS
HOME
12.9MIN
2POINTS
4 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
18.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
7
2025-08-03
PHO
HOME
21.5MIN
9POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
2-5
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
65.4
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-15
PRA
11
2025-08-01
GSV
HOME
13.8MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
7.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2025-07-29
WAS
AWAY
6.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-12
PRA
0
2025-07-27
IND
HOME
23.4MIN
4POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
15.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
7
2025-07-24
SEA
HOME
24.6MIN
3POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-9
BELOW
FG
1-9
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
16.7
USG%
20.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-14
PRA
7
2025-07-22
MIN
AWAY
12.5MIN
9POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
92.2
USG%
17.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
10
2025-07-16
ATL
HOME
25.2MIN
2POINTS
7 · 1 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
4/3
TS%
12.5
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-16
PRA
10
2025-07-09
DAL
HOME
3.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
2
2025-07-08
WAS
AWAY
12.0MIN
3POINTS
6 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
75.0
USG%
11.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
9
2025-07-06
MIN
AWAY
4.6MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
27.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2025-06-21
PHO
HOME
14.8MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
9.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
5
2025-06-13
ATL
AWAY
3.9MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2025-06-10
NYL
AWAY
6.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
38.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
3
2025-06-07
IND
HOME
6.2MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
86.8
USG%
22.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
6
2025-05-22
NYL
HOME
3.2MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
12.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2025-05-17
IND
AWAY
4.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
26.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
1
every game on file — nothing hidden