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Madina Okot in blowouts

42 of 42 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
25 of these · baseline 17NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (5.1 pts) against in closer games (5.8), -0.7, t = -0.42, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.4). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.1
5.8
−0.7
t −0.42 · resolves ±3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
3.2
3.6
−0.4
t −0.51 · resolves ±1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.3
0.2
0.0
t +0.29 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.0
0.0
t +1.00 · resolves ±0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.2
+0.2
t +1.05 · resolves ±0.3
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.4
−0.2
t −1.11 · resolves ±0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.3
1.0
+0.3
t +1.02 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
8.5
9.6
−1.1
t −0.47 · resolves ±4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
8.2
9.4
−1.2
t −0.50 · resolves ±4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.4
6.1
−0.7
t −0.39 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.4
3.8
−0.4
t −0.42 · resolves ±1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.6
0.0
t −0.19 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 186 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 28NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (5.8 pts) against other games (5.2), +0.6, t = 0.34, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.8
5.2
+0.6
t +0.34 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
4.1
2.9
+1.2
t +1.54 · resolves ±1.5
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.4
0.2
+0.2
t +1.33 · resolves ±0.4
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.0
0.0
0.0
t −1.00 · resolves ±0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.3
+0.3
t +1.30 · resolves ±0.4
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
t 0.00 · resolves ±0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.2
1.2
0.0
t +0.11 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
10.4
8.3
+2.1
t +0.84 · resolves ±4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.9
8.1
+1.8
t +0.76 · resolves ±4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.2
5.4
+0.9
t +0.46 · resolves ±3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.6
3.1
+1.5
t +1.72 · resolves ±1.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.8
0.5
+0.3
t +0.87 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
15 of these · baseline 27DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (3.9 pts) against other games (6.2), -2.3, t = -1.38, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.2).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.9
6.2
−2.3
t −1.38 · resolves ±3.2
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.4
3.9
−1.5
t −2.10 · resolves ±1.4
MEASURED
assists
0.2
0.3
−0.1
t −0.64 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.0
+0.1
t +1.00 · resolves ±0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.4
−0.1
t −0.65 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.4
0.2
+0.2
t +0.93 · resolves ±0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.3
1.1
+0.1
t +0.35 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.5
10.3
−3.8
t −1.81 · resolves ±4.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.3
10.0
−3.7
t −1.82 · resolves ±4.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
4.1
6.5
−2.3
t −1.37 · resolves ±3.4
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.6
4.1
−1.5
t −2.11 · resolves ±1.4
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.7
0.6
+0.1
t +0.31 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 42 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 5.8
2026-09-23
NYL
AWAY
3.1MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2026-09-19
CHI
HOME
5.9MIN
4POINTS
5 · 0 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
40.0
USG%
35.5
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
9
2026-09-17
CON
HOME
15.0MIN
10POINTS
3 · 1 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
71.4
USG%
23.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+13
PRA
14
2026-08-30
MIN
HOME
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-28
POR
HOME
6.7MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
17.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
3
2026-08-24
LAS
AWAY
8.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2026-08-22
PHO
AWAY
10.2MIN
4POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
34.0
USG%
29.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
0
PRA
8
2026-08-20
LAS
AWAY
16.5MIN
12POINTS
6 · 2 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
68.5
USG%
29.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
20
2026-08-18
LVA
AWAY
8.0MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
77.3
USG%
36.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
7
2026-08-16
IND
HOME
18.4MIN
8POINTS
7 · 1 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
82.0
USG%
13.4
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+14
PRA
16
2026-08-13
CON
AWAY
16.5MIN
4POINTS
7 · 0 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
40.0
USG%
18.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+10
PRA
11
2026-08-10
TOR
HOME
1.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
112.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
1
2026-08-07
WAS
AWAY
5.3MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
69.4
USG%
27.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
4
2026-08-05
PHO
HOME
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-03
LVA
HOME
6.7MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
3
2026-07-29
DAL
AWAY
2.9MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
1
2026-07-19
CHI
HOME
10.7MIN
14POINTS
4 · 0 · 6-8
ABOVE
FG
6-8
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
78.8
USG%
38.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
18
2026-07-17
TOR
AWAY
3.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
22.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
3
2026-07-13
LAS
HOME
9.6MIN
9POINTS
6 · 1 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
78.1
USG%
28.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+9
PRA
16
2026-07-11
POR
HOME
22.4MIN
19POINTS
8 · 0 · 7-14
ABOVE
FG
7-14
3PT
0-1
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
4/4
TS%
58.6
USG%
33.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-13
PRA
27
2026-07-09
SEA
HOME
9.1MIN
5POINTS
6 · 0 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
4/2
TS%
42.5
USG%
35.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
11
2026-07-04
GSV
HOME
9.6MIN
11POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-4
ABOVE
FG
4-4
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
103.4
USG%
27.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
13
2026-07-02
WAS
AWAY
7.5MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
26.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
7
2026-06-27
SEA
AWAY
11.5MIN
6POINTS
5 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
61.5
USG%
25.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-16
PRA
11
2026-06-26
GSV
AWAY
10.8MIN
7POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
59.5
USG%
31.4
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
9
2026-06-24
GSV
AWAY
19.0MIN
16POINTS
5 · 1 · 7-9
ABOVE
FG
7-9
3PT
1-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
84.7
USG%
28.5
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
22
2026-06-22
TOR
HOME
17.8MIN
18POINTS
7 · 0 · 7-9
ABOVE
FG
7-9
3PT
0-0
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
80.4
USG%
25.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
25
2026-06-20
IND
HOME
3.8MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
85.2
USG%
18.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
5
2026-06-18
IND
AWAY
4.9MIN
0POINTS
4 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
5
2026-06-14
TOR
AWAY
5.6MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
3
2026-06-11
NYL
HOME
6.7MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
79.8
USG%
12.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
5
2026-06-09
CHI
AWAY
4.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
28.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
2
2026-06-06
WAS
HOME
18.3MIN
11POINTS
5 · 0 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
55.7
USG%
29.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+9
PRA
16
2026-06-04
IND
AWAY
9.4MIN
7POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
59.5
USG%
28.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
10
2026-06-02
CON
HOME
9.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-05-29
POR
AWAY
6.8MIN
7POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
101.7
USG%
34.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
8
2026-05-27
MIN
AWAY
4.8MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
72.5
USG%
35.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
5
2026-05-24
PHO
HOME
7.1MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
37.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-05-22
DAL
HOME
8.1MIN
0POINTS
5 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
5
2026-05-17
LVA
HOME
15.8MIN
14POINTS
11 · 1 · 7-12
ABOVE
FG
7-12
3PT
0-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
2/9
TS%
56.3
USG%
33.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+18
PRA
26
2026-05-12
DAL
AWAY
9.2MIN
0POINTS
5 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
5
2026-05-09
MIN
AWAY
9.8MIN
8POINTS
4 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
58.1
USG%
30.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
12
every game on file — nothing hidden