DIME
WNBANBAEuroLeagueEuro
points estimatesat home

Madison Scott in blowouts

11 of 11 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
8 of these · baseline 3 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (1.8 pts) against in closer games (1.3), +0.4, t = 0.47, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.8
1.3
+0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.3
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.0
2.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.8
1.7
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.0
1.7
+0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.3
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.3
1.0
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
0.3
+0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.7
−0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
0.7
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 172 (this player's own top tercile)
4 of these · baseline 7 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (2.0 pts) against other games (1.4), +0.6, t = 0.57, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.0
1.4
+0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.1
+0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.8
1.6
+1.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.3
1.4
+0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.5
1.6
+0.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.8
0.1
+0.6
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.0
+0.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.5
1.0
+0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 149 (this player's own bottom tercile)
4 of these · baseline 7 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.5 pts) against other games (1.7), -0.2, t = -0.20, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.5
1.7
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
1.5
2.3
−0.8
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.5
1.9
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.5
2.1
−0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.0
0.6
−0.6
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
0.8
1.4
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 11 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.3
2026-09-23
ATL
HOME
1.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-09-20
TOR
AWAY
3.9MIN
4POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
82.0
USG%
27.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+12
PRA
5
2025-09-09
NYL
AWAY
2.2MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
21.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
2
2025-09-07
IND
HOME
3.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2025-08-30
GSV
AWAY
10.0MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
2
2025-08-28
NYL
AWAY
3.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
3
2025-08-23
LVA
HOME
3.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
ABOVE
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
53.2
USG%
25.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2025-08-21
CON
AWAY
1.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2025-08-19
CON
HOME
6.6MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
66.7
USG%
22.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
4
2025-08-17
LAS
HOME
9.8MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
15.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
3
2025-08-15
IND
AWAY
6.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
1
every game on file — nothing hidden