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Marine Fauthoux in blowouts

22 of 22 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
11 of these · baseline 11 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.0 pts) against in closer games (4.5), -0.5, t = -0.28, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.0
4.5
−0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
2.5
−1.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
assists
2.5
1.1
+1.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.4
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.1
1.2
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.8
8.2
−0.4
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.3
7.1
−1.8
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.5
5.6
+0.9
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.8
3.6
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.2
2.1
−0.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
3.0
3.3
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.3
1.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.8
1.5
+0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.1
1.3
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.5
1.3
−0.8
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
three-point attempts
1.4
2.3
−0.9
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 186 (this player's own top tercile)
8 of these · baseline 14 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (5.6 pts) against other games (3.5), +2.1, t = 1.07, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.6
3.5
+2.1
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.4
1.6
+0.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.9
1.8
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.9
0.4
+0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
turnovers
1.6
0.9
+0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
9.9
6.9
+2.9
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
8.0
5.1
+2.9
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.5
5.3
+2.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.3
3.4
+0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
defensive rebounds
2.0
1.4
+0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.9
2.7
+1.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.8
1.0
+0.8
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.5
1.7
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.3
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
0.6
+0.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
2.5
1.4
+1.1
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 169 (this player's own bottom tercile)
8 of these · baseline 14 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (3.6 pts) against other games (4.6), -1.0, t = -0.49, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.6
4.6
−1.0
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
2.3
−1.0
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.9
2.4
−1.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.7
−0.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
1.3
−0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.8
9.3
−3.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
4.9
6.9
−2.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.5
7.0
−2.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.1
4.6
−2.5
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
1.9
−0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
2.5
3.5
−1.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
1.6
−0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
2.5
1.1
+1.4
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.9
0.8
+1.1
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.1
0.4
−0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.4
2.1
−0.7
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 22 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 4.5
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
MIN
AWAY
2.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
53.2
USG%
52.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
2
2026-09-23
ATL
HOME
17.2MIN
14POINTS
3 · 4 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-3
FT
8-9
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
70.3
USG%
33.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
21
2026-09-20
TOR
AWAY
7.5MIN
9POINTS
2 · 1 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
90.0
USG%
29.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+13
PRA
12
2026-09-18
MIN
AWAY
0.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-29
CHI
HOME
4.9MIN
4POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
69.4
USG%
26.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
6
2026-08-27
GSV
HOME
3.2MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
12.9
USG%
60.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-08-18
CHI
AWAY
8.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
3
2026-08-15
CON
AWAY
11.4MIN
8POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
1-2
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
48.8
USG%
39.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
11
2026-08-13
LAS
HOME
9.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
2
2026-08-11
IND
AWAY
16.4MIN
5POINTS
1 · 3 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
41.7
USG%
25.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
9
2026-08-09
LVA
HOME
21.5MIN
2POINTS
3 · 9 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
34.7
USG%
9.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+21
PRA
14
2026-08-05
SEA
HOME
15.6MIN
6POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
1-4
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
46.6
USG%
23.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
10
2026-08-03
SEA
HOME
14.4MIN
3POINTS
4 · 5 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
33.8
USG%
17.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
12
2026-08-01
PHO
AWAY
12.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
53.2
USG%
17.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2026-07-30
LVA
AWAY
18.4MIN
9POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
76.5
USG%
16.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
14
2026-07-28
LAS
AWAY
22.3MIN
13POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
3-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
94.5
USG%
17.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+7
PRA
17
2026-07-22
CHI
HOME
18.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
9.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-07-20
DAL
AWAY
27.1MIN
10POINTS
10 · 2 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
2-5
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/9
TS%
74.0
USG%
12.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
22
2026-07-18
IND
AWAY
15.1MIN
4POINTS
0 · 4 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
41.0
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-8
PRA
8
2026-06-11
ATL
AWAY
5.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
1
2026-06-08
CON
AWAY
6.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-06-06
IND
HOME
4.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
2
every game on file — nothing hidden