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Marta Suarez in blowouts

19 of 19 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
7 of these · baseline 12 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (5.0 pts) against in closer games (2.6), +2.4, t = 1.27, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.7). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.0
2.6
+2.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.6
1.4
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.4
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.0
0.5
+0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
7.0
4.3
+2.8
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.6
4.0
+2.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
5.4
2.8
+2.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.0
1.7
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.2
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.9
1.1
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.6
2.3
+1.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.7
1.0
+0.7
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.6
0.4
+1.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.1
0.3
+0.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.7
0.3
+0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
2.5
−1.2
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.1
1.0
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 181 (this player's own top tercile)
7 of these · baseline 12 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.3 pts) against other games (3.0), +1.3, t = 0.71, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.3
3.0
+1.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.9
0.1
+0.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.0
4.8
+1.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.7
4.5
+1.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.6
3.3
+1.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.7
1.8
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
0.9
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.9
2.8
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.7
1.0
+0.7
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.1
1.3
−1.1
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
free throws made
0.0
0.9
−0.9
gap is 2.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
3.1
1.4
+1.7
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
MEASURED
three-point attempts
1.7
0.7
+1.0
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 169 (this player's own bottom tercile)
7 of these · baseline 12 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (2.1 pts) against other games (4.3), -2.1, t = -1.32, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.1
4.3
−2.1
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.0
1.8
−0.8
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.6
−0.6
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.4
6.3
−2.9
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
3.1
6.0
−2.9
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
2.4
4.6
−2.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.3
2.1
−0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
0.6
1.3
−0.7
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
2.4
3.0
−0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.9
1.5
−0.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.6
1.0
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.3
2.5
−1.2
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.4
1.4
−1.0
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
04

Game log

all 19 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.6
2026-09-24
LVA
HOME
14.6MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
100.0
USG%
14.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
8
2026-09-21
DAL
HOME
10.4MIN
2POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
17.0
USG%
26.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
6
2026-09-19
DAL
AWAY
3.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-6
PRA
0
2026-09-17
POR
AWAY
13.5MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
3.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
3
2026-08-29
TOR
HOME
16.7MIN
13POINTS
3 · 0 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
1-2
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
69.7
USG%
30.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
16
2026-08-16
POR
HOME
2.6MIN
1POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
56.8
USG%
32.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-08-11
LAS
AWAY
6.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
1
2026-08-09
WAS
AWAY
5.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-07-17
CON
HOME
7.0MIN
5POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
66.5
USG%
24.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-07-13
MIN
AWAY
5.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2026-07-11
LVA
AWAY
11.5MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
51.2
USG%
19.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
6
2026-07-09
IND
HOME
10.7MIN
10POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
83.3
USG%
26.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
12
2026-07-07
CHI
HOME
5.9MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
32.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-8
PRA
1
2026-07-02
SEA
HOME
8.2MIN
6POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/0
TS%
61.5
USG%
31.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
9
2026-06-27
TOR
AWAY
15.2MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
40.0
USG%
15.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+11
PRA
4
2026-06-24
IND
AWAY
9.6MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
67.6
USG%
24.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-7
PRA
8
2026-06-05
POR
AWAY
10.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-05-24
ATL
AWAY
10.3MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-05-21
LAS
HOME
8.9MIN
6POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
19.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
6
+/−
-13
PRA
7
every game on file — nothing hidden