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Nell Angloma in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 20 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.7 pts) against in closer games (4.1), +0.6, t = 0.47, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.5). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.7
4.1
+0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
1.8
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.3
0.5
+0.8
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
threes
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.4
−0.2
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.9
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.0
6.4
+1.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.7
5.9
+0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.9
4.6
+1.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.3
2.3
+1.0
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.2
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.6
3.2
+1.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.6
1.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.7
1.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.2
1.6
+0.7
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.4
0.4
+1.0
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 173 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.1 pts) against other games (4.5), -0.4, t = -0.30, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.1
4.5
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
1.8
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.1
0.8
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.3
7.1
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.2
6.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.1
5.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.2
2.6
+0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.2
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.4
3.6
+0.8
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.6
1.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.9
2.1
−1.2
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
free throws made
0.6
1.3
−0.7
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.0
1.8
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.9
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 160 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.4 pts) against other games (4.3), +0.0, t = 0.01, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.4
4.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.8
2.0
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.9
7.3
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.1
6.3
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.1
5.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.6
2.9
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.1
0.6
+0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.0
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.8
4.0
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.6
1.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.6
1.8
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.0
1.2
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.9
1.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.1
0.8
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 4.1
2026-09-24
TOR
HOME
26.9MIN
8POINTS
5 · 1 · 4-12
ABOVE
FG
4-12
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
33.3
USG%
20.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
6
+/−
+19
PRA
14
2026-09-22
WAS
AWAY
14.7MIN
7POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
44.4
USG%
25.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-09-20
MIN
HOME
21.8MIN
3POINTS
4 · 1 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
25.5
USG%
12.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-7
PRA
8
2026-09-17
ATL
AWAY
22.4MIN
6POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-8
ABOVE
FG
2-8
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
33.8
USG%
18.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
9
2026-08-30
DAL
AWAY
21.0MIN
2POINTS
6 · 4 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
4/2
TS%
26.6
USG%
10.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-6
PRA
12
2026-08-28
IND
AWAY
27.4MIN
17POINTS
7 · 4 · 7-13
ABOVE
FG
7-13
3PT
1-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
61.2
USG%
22.2
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-21
PRA
28
2026-08-26
GSV
HOME
23.1MIN
11POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
1-4
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
59.8
USG%
19.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-17
PRA
13
2026-08-25
CHI
HOME
6.5MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
106.4
USG%
13.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-08-22
LAS
AWAY
11.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.3
USG%
14.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-08-20
LVA
AWAY
14.9MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.3
USG%
26.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
7
2026-08-18
LAS
HOME
11.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
15.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
3
2026-08-15
NYL
HOME
13.0MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
38.7
USG%
13.8
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
6
2026-08-13
ATL
HOME
17.5MIN
6POINTS
4 · 2 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
4/0
TS%
44.4
USG%
19.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
12
2026-08-07
PHO
HOME
11.1MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.3
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-08-02
DAL
AWAY
9.8MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
23.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
6
2026-07-30
CHI
AWAY
2.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2026-07-28
WAS
AWAY
4.0MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
32.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
3
2026-07-22
IND
AWAY
10.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
25.8
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
5
2026-07-19
PHO
AWAY
12.2MIN
8POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-3
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
75.2
USG%
27.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
11
2026-07-17
PHO
AWAY
3.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-07-14
POR
HOME
11.0MIN
4POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-2
BELOW
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
12.1
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+7
PRA
7
2026-07-10
GSV
HOME
16.0MIN
6POINTS
1 · 4 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
37.5
USG%
29.2
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
11
2026-07-08
MIN
HOME
15.3MIN
10POINTS
7 · 0 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
4/3
TS%
64.4
USG%
26.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
17
2026-07-06
MIN
AWAY
0.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-06-26
WAS
HOME
4.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
22.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-06-22
CHI
HOME
7.8MIN
1POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
56.8
USG%
10.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-06-19
TOR
HOME
3.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-06-17
WAS
HOME
13.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
29.6
USG%
23.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
7
2026-06-13
IND
HOME
8.6MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
26.6
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
1
2026-06-10
TOR
AWAY
11.2MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
36.8
USG%
20.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-06-08
NYL
HOME
12.1MIN
7POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
3-7
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
57.6
USG%
29.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
11
2026-06-05
CHI
AWAY
16.5MIN
6POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
61.5
USG%
15.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+9
PRA
7
2026-06-02
ATL
AWAY
9.6MIN
6POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
77.3
USG%
24.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-05-30
LAS
HOME
11.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
34.7
USG%
14.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
2
2026-05-27
POR
AWAY
3.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-05-25
GSV
AWAY
14.5MIN
6POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
61.5
USG%
21.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-05-22
SEA
AWAY
14.4MIN
2POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
53.2
USG%
6.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
6
2026-05-20
SEA
AWAY
28.8MIN
15POINTS
7 · 0 · 7-12
ABOVE
FG
7-12
3PT
0-0
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
1/6
TS%
54.5
USG%
22.7
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+8
PRA
22
2026-05-18
POR
AWAY
3.1MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.8
USG%
12.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-05-15
LVA
HOME
13.5MIN
7POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.9
USG%
23.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
9
every game on file — nothing hidden