DIME
Get the picksJoin
points estimatesat home

Noemie Brochant in blowouts

43 of 43 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
16 of these · baseline 27DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (7.9 pts) against in closer games (5.4), +2.5, t = 1.70, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.9
5.4
+2.5
t +1.70 · resolves ±2.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.8
2.3
−0.5
t −1.28 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.7
2.0
−0.3
t −0.38 · resolves ±1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.6
0.7
+1.0
t +2.65 · resolves ±0.7
MEASURED
steals
1.1
1.0
0.0
t +0.06 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.2
t −1.92 · resolves ±0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.8
1.1
−0.3
t −1.17 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
11.4
9.6
+1.7
t +0.84 · resolves ±4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.7
7.7
+2.0
t +1.27 · resolves ±3.1
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
9.6
7.4
+2.3
t +1.15 · resolves ±3.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
3.4
4.2
−0.8
t −0.89 · resolves ±1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.1
1.3
−0.2
t −0.51 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 179 (this player's own top tercile)
15 of these · baseline 28NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (7.4 pts) against other games (5.8), +1.6, t = 0.89, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.6).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.4
5.8
+1.6
t +0.89 · resolves ±3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.1
2.1
0.0
t −0.01 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
2.1
1.7
+0.4
t +0.57 · resolves ±1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.3
0.9
+0.5
t +1.29 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals
1.1
1.0
+0.1
t +0.30 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
t +0.59 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.3
0.9
+0.5
t +1.40 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
11.6
9.6
+2.0
t +0.82 · resolves ±4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.5
7.9
+1.6
t +0.81 · resolves ±3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
9.5
7.5
+2.0
t +0.90 · resolves ±4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.2
3.8
+0.4
t +0.40 · resolves ±2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.4
1.2
+0.2
t +0.51 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
15 of these · baseline 28NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (5.7 pts) against other games (6.7), -1.0, t = -0.72, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.7
6.7
−1.0
t −0.72 · resolves ±2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.2
2.0
+0.2
t +0.44 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.7
1.9
−0.2
t −0.26 · resolves ±1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.7
1.2
−0.4
t −1.21 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals
1.2
1.0
+0.2
t +0.67 · resolves ±0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
t +0.52 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.9
1.1
−0.1
t −0.46 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.6
10.6
−1.0
t −0.49 · resolves ±4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.9
8.7
−0.8
t −0.54 · resolves ±3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.4
8.6
−1.2
t −0.62 · resolves ±3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.9
3.9
0.0
t +0.01 · resolves ±1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.5
1.1
+0.3
t +0.80 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 43 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 5.4
2026-09-24
LVA
HOME
29.6MIN
9POINTS
3 · 3 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
1-4
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
53.3
USG%
16.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
15
2026-09-21
DAL
HOME
22.3MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
5
2026-09-19
DAL
AWAY
32.5MIN
7POINTS
6 · 2 · 3-12
ABOVE
FG
3-12
3PT
1-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
29.2
USG%
17.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+2
PRA
15
2026-09-17
POR
AWAY
33.5MIN
14POINTS
3 · 6 · 5-10
ABOVE
FG
5-10
3PT
2-5
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
64.3
USG%
19.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+17
PRA
23
2026-08-29
TOR
HOME
24.6MIN
15POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
1-3
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
76.8
USG%
19.5
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+36
PRA
19
2026-08-27
WAS
HOME
28.4MIN
4POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
28.6
USG%
14.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
5
2026-08-25
WAS
HOME
24.6MIN
7POINTS
1 · 2 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
58.3
USG%
13.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+8
PRA
10
2026-08-22
ATL
HOME
27.4MIN
9POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.3
USG%
14.8
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
10
2026-08-16
POR
HOME
27.2MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-08-11
LAS
AWAY
30.1MIN
24POINTS
3 · 3 · 10-13
ABOVE
FG
10-13
3PT
3-6
FT
1-3
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
83.8
USG%
23.9
STL
5
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
30
2026-08-09
WAS
AWAY
21.0MIN
13POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
3-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
92.9
USG%
15.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
16
2026-08-07
CON
AWAY
22.1MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
7
2026-08-05
ATL
AWAY
28.1MIN
7POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
58.3
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
11
2026-08-03
CHI
AWAY
18.7MIN
2POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
20.0
USG%
13.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
6
2026-08-01
NYL
HOME
25.7MIN
5POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
62.5
USG%
9.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
6
2026-07-29
GSV
HOME
18.9MIN
4POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
69.4
USG%
7.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-16
PRA
5
2026-07-22
LAS
AWAY
22.9MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
20.0
USG%
9.5
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+5
PRA
4
2026-07-19
CON
HOME
23.2MIN
4POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
66.7
USG%
9.9
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
9
2026-07-17
CON
HOME
23.1MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
7.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-07-13
MIN
AWAY
17.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
33.3
USG%
10.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
6
2026-07-11
LVA
AWAY
19.7MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
11.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
8
2026-07-09
IND
HOME
19.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+12
PRA
2
2026-07-07
CHI
HOME
17.4MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
3
2026-06-27
TOR
AWAY
27.8MIN
3POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
37.5
USG%
6.5
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-06-24
IND
AWAY
33.1MIN
12POINTS
5 · 9 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
2-4
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
60.7
USG%
14.5
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
26
2026-06-22
IND
AWAY
26.1MIN
7POINTS
2 · 3 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
38.9
USG%
15.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
12
2026-06-20
SEA
HOME
31.7MIN
16POINTS
2 · 10 · 6-7
ABOVE
FG
6-7
3PT
4-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
114.3
USG%
11.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+8
PRA
28
2026-06-17
LVA
HOME
18.8MIN
4POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
10.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-11
PRA
8
2026-06-13
LAS
HOME
22.9MIN
8POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
80.0
USG%
15.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
12
2026-06-11
DAL
AWAY
22.2MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
16.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-22
PRA
7
2026-06-09
GSV
AWAY
28.7MIN
10POINTS
2 · 6 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
83.3
USG%
13.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
18
2026-06-05
POR
AWAY
28.2MIN
11POINTS
2 · 2 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
2-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
79.9
USG%
13.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+9
PRA
15
2026-06-03
SEA
AWAY
23.6MIN
4POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
28.6
USG%
17.2
STL
2
BLK
2
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
9
2026-06-01
MIN
HOME
24.5MIN
11POINTS
2 · 0 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
68.8
USG%
16.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-22
PRA
13
2026-05-29
NYL
AWAY
21.2MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-4
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
20.5
USG%
11.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
3
2026-05-27
NYL
AWAY
19.4MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
37.5
USG%
9.7
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
6
2026-05-24
ATL
AWAY
30.7MIN
6POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
42.9
USG%
11.7
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
13
2026-05-21
LAS
HOME
14.7MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
4
2026-05-19
TOR
HOME
25.4MIN
5POINTS
4 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
62.5
USG%
6.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
9
2026-05-15
CHI
HOME
10.9MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
3.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-05-12
MIN
HOME
12.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-05-10
GSV
AWAY
15.7MIN
9POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
90.0
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
10
2026-05-09
LVA
AWAY
18.5MIN
8POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
62.1
USG%
15.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+9
PRA
11
every game on file — nothing hidden