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Nyadiew Puoch in blowouts

42 of 42 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
23 of these · baseline 19NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.2 pts) against in closer games (4.4), -0.2, t = -0.15, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.7). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.2
4.4
−0.2
t −0.15 · resolves ±2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.9
2.5
−0.6
t −1.28 · resolves ±0.9
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.9
0.6
+0.2
t +0.91 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.6
−0.2
t −0.70 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.7
0.7
+0.1
t +0.21 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.0
+0.3
t +2.31 · resolves ±0.2
MEASURED
turnovers
0.8
0.4
+0.4
t +1.58 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
7.0
7.5
−0.5
t −0.31 · resolves ±3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.1
6.9
−0.8
t −0.48 · resolves ±3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.1
5.1
0.0
t +0.02 · resolves ±2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.8
3.1
−0.3
t −0.56 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.0
0.7
+0.3
t +1.08 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 184 (this player's own top tercile)
15 of these · baseline 27DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (5.4 pts) against other games (3.7), +1.7, t = 1.08, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.4
3.7
+1.7
t +1.08 · resolves ±3.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.1
2.2
−0.2
t −0.36 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.9
−0.4
t −1.46 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.7
0.4
+0.2
t +0.70 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.8
−0.3
t −1.05 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.1
0.2
−0.1
t −1.04 · resolves ±0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.6
0.7
−0.1
t −0.25 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.0
6.8
+1.2
t +0.66 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.5
5.9
+1.5
t +0.90 · resolves ±3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.9
4.6
+1.3
t +0.82 · resolves ±3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.6
3.1
−0.5
t −0.96 · resolves ±1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
1.0
−0.4
t −1.34 · resolves ±0.6
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 168 (this player's own bottom tercile)
15 of these · baseline 27NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.0 pts) against other games (4.5), -0.5, t = -0.37, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.5).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.0
4.5
−0.5
t −0.37 · resolves ±2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.4
2.0
+0.4
t +0.66 · resolves ±1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.7
+0.1
t +0.20 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.6
−0.2
t −0.74 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.8
−0.2
t −0.69 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
t −0.12 · resolves ±0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
0.6
+0.2
t +0.75 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.2
7.3
−0.1
t −0.03 · resolves ±3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.4
6.5
−0.1
t −0.07 · resolves ±3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.8
5.2
−0.4
t −0.29 · resolves ±2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.2
2.8
+0.4
t +0.57 · resolves ±1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.7
0.9
−0.2
t −0.70 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 42 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 4.4
2026-09-20
LAS
AWAY
26.2MIN
7POINTS
3 · 2 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
43.8
USG%
14.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
12
2026-09-18
GSV
AWAY
31.1MIN
11POINTS
8 · 2 · 4-11
ABOVE
FG
4-11
3PT
1-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
46.3
USG%
23.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-3
PRA
21
2026-09-17
PHO
HOME
29.0MIN
9POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-2
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
66.6
USG%
11.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-11
PRA
12
2026-08-30
GSV
HOME
22.4MIN
6POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
13.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
11
2026-08-28
ATL
AWAY
25.0MIN
7POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-2
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
60.8
USG%
13.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+12
PRA
9
2026-08-25
DAL
AWAY
18.0MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-20
PRA
3
2026-08-23
WAS
HOME
17.6MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+2
PRA
3
2026-08-21
TOR
AWAY
19.9MIN
8POINTS
4 · 3 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
18.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
15
2026-08-16
PHO
AWAY
16.6MIN
3POINTS
4 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
8
2026-08-14
SEA
AWAY
14.8MIN
2POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
11.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-13
PRA
6
2026-08-12
MIN
HOME
23.0MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
1-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
29.1
USG%
13.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-08-08
SEA
HOME
25.3MIN
19POINTS
2 · 1 · 6-9
ABOVE
FG
6-9
3PT
4-7
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
88.3
USG%
20.1
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
22
2026-08-06
TOR
HOME
16.9MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
15.5
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
8
2026-08-02
LAS
HOME
20.5MIN
7POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
126.8
USG%
5.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
11
2026-07-31
IND
HOME
18.2MIN
10POINTS
2 · 0 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
62.5
USG%
23.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-8
PRA
12
2026-07-28
LVA
AWAY
20.1MIN
3POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
38.7
USG%
10.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
6
2026-07-22
DAL
HOME
15.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
1
2026-07-18
MIN
AWAY
7.6MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
4
2026-07-16
WAS
AWAY
14.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
3.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
2
2026-07-14
CON
AWAY
8.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
1
2026-07-11
ATL
AWAY
24.9MIN
9POINTS
0 · 0 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.3
USG%
15.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+14
PRA
9
2026-07-09
LVA
HOME
13.4MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
58.1
USG%
15.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
7
2026-07-04
SEA
AWAY
14.9MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
13.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2026-06-28
WAS
AWAY
19.1MIN
9POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
2-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
65.4
USG%
16.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+10
PRA
12
2026-06-26
CHI
AWAY
14.0MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
22.5
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
4
2026-06-24
CHI
AWAY
13.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-6
BELOW
FG
0-6
3PT
0-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.3
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-13
PRA
2
2026-06-17
SEA
HOME
10.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.8
USG%
15.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
4
2026-06-15
MIN
AWAY
20.8MIN
3POINTS
3 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
6.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-10
PRA
8
2026-06-11
LVA
HOME
7.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
1
2026-06-07
LAS
AWAY
13.9MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
66.7
USG%
8.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
5
2026-06-05
PHO
HOME
13.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2026-06-02
GSV
AWAY
13.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
2
2026-05-30
IND
HOME
16.1MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
8.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-05-29
ATL
HOME
17.0MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
16.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
4
2026-05-27
CON
HOME
17.8MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
21.0
USG%
18.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
2
2026-05-25
NYL
AWAY
20.0MIN
5POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
33.6
USG%
16.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
10
2026-05-23
TOR
AWAY
23.9MIN
5POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-8
ABOVE
FG
2-8
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
31.3
USG%
17.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+9
PRA
9
2026-05-20
IND
AWAY
20.2MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-21
PRA
1
2026-05-18
CON
HOME
21.2MIN
10POINTS
4 · 0 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
56.3
USG%
21.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
14
2026-05-14
NYL
HOME
30.6MIN
13POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
2-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
68.9
USG%
14.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-5
PRA
17
2026-05-12
NYL
HOME
22.5MIN
0POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+2
PRA
3
2026-05-09
CHI
HOME
16.8MIN
5POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
83.3
USG%
8.1
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
8
every game on file — nothing hidden