Nyara Sabally over 10.5 points
She has cleared 10.5 in 19 of 114 games — 16.7%. That rate needs +500 to break even and books have been paying -125.
—
Tonight
THU · SEP 24TOR @ CON7:00 PM ETbench · 7 projected minutes
OutAneesah MorrowLeft Knee
OutBrittney SykesLeft Foot
OutMarina MabreyRight Adductor
OutTemi FagbenlePersonal Reasons
QuestionableMaria CondeBack
AT 10+ MINUTES · 202623 games · 24.6 min · 12.7 points · 14/23 over 10.5 (61%)
Tonight's projection is 7 minutes. This is her season at that workload.
WITHOUT MORROW20 games · 23.6 min · 11.9 points · 11/20 over 10.5with her (n=4): 25.4 min · 14.0 points · 75%with her →
WITHOUT SYKES14 games · 22.4 min · 12.2 points · 9/14 over 10.5with her (n=10): 26.0 min · 12.4 points · 50%with her →
WITHOUT MABREY2 games · 25.5 min · 16.5 points · 2/2 over 10.5with her (n=22): 23.7 min · 11.9 points · 55%with her →
2 games without her is a hint, not a finding — a sample that small cannot carry a conclusion.
Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.
01
Distribution
114 games · hover a bucket0–2.5 points · 46 games · 40.4% · under46
2.5–5 points · 14 games · 12.3% · under14
5–7.5 points · 21 games · 18.4% · under21
7.5–10 points · 12 games · 10.5% · under12
10–12.5 points · 5 games · 4.4% · under5
12.5–15 points · 8 games · 7.0% · over8
15–17.5 points · 5 games · 4.4% · over5
17.5–20 points · 1 game · 0.9% · over1
20–22.5 points · 1 game · 0.9% · over1
27.5–30 points · 1 game · 0.9% · over1
10.5
UNDER · 95OVER · 19 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 10.5 · hover a bar2025-07-08 · LVA · 4 points · −6.5 vs line
2025-07-13 · ATL · 7 points · −3.5 vs line
2025-07-16 · IND · 2 points · −8.5 vs line
2025-09-09 · WAS · 0 points · −10.5 vs line
2025-09-11 · CHI · 4 points · −6.5 vs line
2025-09-17 · PHO · 1 points · −9.5 vs line
2026-05-08 · WAS · 8 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-05-13 · SEA · 8 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-05-15 · LAS · 14 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-05-17 · LAS · 7 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-05-23 · POR · 9 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-05-27 · CHI · 29 points · +18.5 vs line
2026-05-30 · SEA · 8 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-06-03 · NYL · 11 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-06-07 · CHI · 15 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-06-10 · CON · 15 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-06-22 · ATL · 9 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-06-25 · LAS · 5 points · −5.5 vs line
2026-06-27 · PHO · 14 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-07-05 · DAL · 14 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-07-08 · GSV · 2 points · −8.5 vs line
2026-07-12 · NYL · 13 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-07-14 · WAS · 13 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-07-17 · ATL · 16 points · +5.5 vs line
2026-07-30 · MIN · 10 points · −0.5 vs line
2026-08-02 · GSV · 19 points · +8.5 vs line
2026-08-04 · GSV · 21 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-08-06 · POR · 17 points · +6.5 vs line
2026-08-10 · ATL · 12 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-08-12 · DAL · 6 points · −4.5 vs line
10.5
2025-07-08— 5-game mean2026-08-12 · newest
03
Recent form
70.0%7/10 · last 10
2026-07-08 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-07-12 · 13 points · OVER
13
2026-07-14 · 13 points · OVER
13
2026-07-17 · 16 points · OVER
16
2026-07-30 · 10 points · UNDER
10
2026-08-02 · 19 points · OVER
19
2026-08-04 · 21 points · OVER
21
2026-08-06 · 17 points · OVER
17
2026-08-10 · 12 points · OVER
12
2026-08-12 · 6 points · UNDER
6
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 18 postings10.5-125
best offered10.5-112
worst offered10.5-135
our break-even10.5+500
Median -125 across 18 postings over 5 games. Her rate has never been worth that price.
05
Game log
25 of 114 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 10.5
2026-08-12DALAWAY16.8MIN6POINTS7 · 1 · 3-7UNDER
- FG
- 3-7
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 4/3
- TS%
- 42.9
- USG%
- 23.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -6
- PRA
- 14
2026-08-10ATLAWAY29.1MIN12POINTS12 · 3 · 5-12OVER
- FG
- 5-12
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 3/9
- TS%
- 46.6
- USG%
- 27.5
- STL
- 4
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 27
2026-08-06PORAWAY23.9MIN17POINTS5 · 1 · 5-13OVER
- FG
- 5-13
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 6-7
- OREB/DREB
- 2/3
- TS%
- 52.9
- USG%
- 27.3
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -7
- PRA
- 23
2026-08-04GSVAWAY31.7MIN21POINTS6 · 3 · 8-12OVER
- FG
- 8-12
- 3PT
- 3-6
- FT
- 2-4
- OREB/DREB
- 2/4
- TS%
- 76.3
- USG%
- 26.3
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -14
- PRA
- 30
2026-08-02GSVAWAY24.8MIN19POINTS8 · 1 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 4-7
- OREB/DREB
- 2/6
- TS%
- 63.0
- USG%
- 33.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 28
2026-07-30MINHOME13.7MIN10POINTS2 · 0 · 4-6UNDER
- FG
- 4-6
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 1-3
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 68.3
- USG%
- 37.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -20
- PRA
- 12
2026-07-17ATLHOME21.0MIN16POINTS1 · 2 · 7-10OVER
- FG
- 7-10
- 3PT
- 2-2
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 80.0
- USG%
- 26.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 19
2026-07-14WASHOME26.4MIN13POINTS4 · 1 · 3-11OVER
- FG
- 3-11
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 47.7
- USG%
- 26.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -18
- PRA
- 18
2026-07-12NYLHOME26.2MIN13POINTS7 · 1 · 5-9OVER
- FG
- 5-9
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 3/4
- TS%
- 63.0
- USG%
- 19.4
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 21
2026-07-08GSVHOME6.9MIN2POINTS1 · 1 · 1-1UNDER
- FG
- 1-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 100.0
- USG%
- 14.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 4
2026-07-05DALHOME29.4MIN14POINTS7 · 5 · 6-10OVER
- FG
- 6-10
- 3PT
- 1-2
- FT
- 1-3
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 61.8
- USG%
- 19.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 26
2026-06-27PHOHOME26.2MIN14POINTS4 · 1 · 5-10OVER
- FG
- 5-10
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 2-5
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 57.4
- USG%
- 25.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -18
- PRA
- 19
2026-06-25LASHOME19.1MIN5POINTS4 · 0 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 42.5
- USG%
- 11.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- +18
- PRA
- 9
2026-06-22ATLAWAY17.9MIN9POINTS4 · 2 · 3-7UNDER
- FG
- 3-7
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 54.1
- USG%
- 22.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 4
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 15
2026-06-10CONHOME29.6MIN15POINTS5 · 3 · 3-5OVER
- FG
- 3-5
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 9-10
- OREB/DREB
- 2/3
- TS%
- 79.8
- USG%
- 14.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- +6
- PRA
- 23
2026-06-07CHIHOME25.1MIN15POINTS6 · 1 · 7-14OVER
- FG
- 7-14
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 3/3
- TS%
- 50.4
- USG%
- 25.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +16
- PRA
- 22
2026-06-03NYLAWAY29.2MIN11POINTS6 · 3 · 5-10OVER
- FG
- 5-10
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 2/4
- TS%
- 55.0
- USG%
- 17.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -24
- PRA
- 20
2026-05-30SEAHOME26.1MIN8POINTS4 · 0 · 2-5UNDER
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 59.2
- USG%
- 13.9
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +15
- PRA
- 12
2026-05-27CHIAWAY28.0MIN29POINTS6 · 2 · 11-14OVER
- FG
- 11-14
- 3PT
- 3-4
- FT
- 4-6
- OREB/DREB
- 2/4
- TS%
- 87.1
- USG%
- 28.9
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 37
2026-05-23PORHOME23.2MIN9POINTS3 · 0 · 4-6UNDER
- FG
- 4-6
- 3PT
- 1-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 75.0
- USG%
- 11.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 12
2026-05-17LASAWAY20.1MIN7POINTS4 · 4 · 3-4UNDER
- FG
- 3-4
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 78.8
- USG%
- 14.0
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +10
- PRA
- 15
2026-05-15LASAWAY27.5MIN14POINTS9 · 3 · 5-10OVER
- FG
- 5-10
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 5/4
- TS%
- 59.5
- USG%
- 18.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 26
2026-05-13SEAHOME25.6MIN8POINTS5 · 3 · 2-4UNDER
- FG
- 2-4
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 4-6
- OREB/DREB
- 2/3
- TS%
- 60.2
- USG%
- 15.2
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +8
- PRA
- 16
2026-05-08WASHOME25.5MIN8POINTS6 · 0 · 3-8UNDER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 0-2
- FT
- 2-4
- OREB/DREB
- 3/3
- TS%
- 41.0
- USG%
- 17.9
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -4
- PRA
- 14
2025-09-17PHOHOME7.3MIN1POINTS1 · 1 · 0-3UNDER
- FG
- 0-3
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 12.9
- USG%
- 23.9
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 3
showing 25 of 114 — every rate above is computed over all 114