Olivia Miles in blowouts

40 of 40 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10

19 of these · baseline 21DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (18.3 pts) against in closer games (21.0), -2.7, t = -1.40, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT

BLOWOUTS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

18.3

21.0

−2.7

t −1.40 · resolves ±3.8

DIRECTIONAL

rebounds

4.6

4.7

0.0

t −0.06 · resolves ±1.1

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

6.1

5.9

+0.2

t +0.25 · resolves ±1.6

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

1.1

2.1

−1.0

t −1.93 · resolves ±1.1

DIRECTIONAL

steals

1.6

1.0

+0.5

t +1.62 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.3

1.0

−0.7

t −2.36 · resolves ±0.6

MEASURED

turnovers

3.1

0.0

t −0.08 · resolves ±1.0

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

29.0

31.6

−2.6

t −1.16 · resolves ±4.4

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

22.9

25.7

−2.8

t −1.37 · resolves ±4.0

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

24.4

26.9

−2.5

t −1.15 · resolves ±4.3

DIRECTIONAL

reb+ast

10.7

10.5

+0.2

t +0.19 · resolves ±1.7

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

1.8

2.0

−0.2

t −0.37 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

high-scoring games

combined score >= 181 (this player's own top tercile)

15 of these · baseline 25MEASURED

high-scoring games (22.8 pts) against other games (17.9), +4.9, t = 2.37, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 4.0).

STAT

HIGH TOTAL

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

22.8

17.9

+4.9

t +2.37 · resolves ±4.0

MEASURED

rebounds

4.1

5.0

−0.9

t −1.77 · resolves ±1.0

DIRECTIONAL

assists

6.9

5.4

+1.5

t +1.73 · resolves ±1.7

DIRECTIONAL

threes

2.1

1.3

+0.7

t +1.31 · resolves ±1.1

DIRECTIONAL

steals

1.3

−0.1

t −0.15 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.5

0.7

−0.3

t −0.73 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

3.1

0.0

t −0.02 · resolves ±1.1

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

33.7

28.3

+5.4

t +2.39 · resolves ±4.4

MEASURED

pts+reb

26.9

22.9

+3.9

t +1.79 · resolves ±4.3

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

29.7

23.3

+6.3

t +2.94 · resolves ±4.2

MEASURED

reb+ast

10.9

10.4

+0.5

t +0.59 · resolves ±1.8

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

1.7

2.0

−0.3

t −0.69 · resolves ±0.9

NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games

combined score <= 171 (this player's own bottom tercile)

15 of these · baseline 25MEASURED

low-scoring games (17.3 pts) against other games (21.2), -3.9, t = -1.98, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 3.8).

STAT

LOW TOTALS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

17.3

21.2

−3.9

t −1.98 · resolves ±3.8

MEASURED

rebounds

5.2

4.3

+0.9

t +1.62 · resolves ±1.1

DIRECTIONAL

assists

5.3

6.4

−1.1

t −1.45 · resolves ±1.5

DIRECTIONAL

threes

1.5

1.7

−0.2

t −0.34 · resolves ±1.2

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

1.4

1.2

+0.2

t +0.44 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.9

0.4

+0.5

t +1.46 · resolves ±0.7

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

3.3

3.0

+0.3

t +0.56 · resolves ±1.1

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

27.8

31.9

−4.1

t −1.84 · resolves ±4.4

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

22.5

25.5

−3.0

t −1.46 · resolves ±4.0

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

22.6

27.6

−5.0

t −2.28 · resolves ±4.3

MEASURED

reb+ast

10.5

10.7

−0.2

t −0.25 · resolves ±1.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

2.3

1.7

+0.7

t +1.38 · resolves ±0.9

DIRECTIONAL

Game log

all 40 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 21.0

2026-09-20

CON

AWAY

30.3MIN

21POINTS

3 · 6 · 7-10

BELOW

FG: 7-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 83.1
USG%: 19.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 30

2026-09-18

NYL

HOME

34.2MIN

20POINTS

8 · 5 · 5-18

BELOW

FG: 5-18
3PT: 0-3
FT: 10-12
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 43.0
USG%: 32.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 33

2026-08-30

ATL

AWAY

29.8MIN

21POINTS

5 · 0 · 7-14

BELOW

FG: 7-14
3PT: 1-3
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 28.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -19
PRA: 26

2026-08-24

GSV

HOME

27.8MIN

8POINTS

4 · 5 · 3-12

BELOW

FG: 3-12
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 31.1
USG%: 28.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: -12
PRA: 17

2026-08-21

WAS

AWAY

29.2MIN

24POINTS

3 · 7 · 10-22

ABOVE

FG: 10-22
3PT: 2-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 52.4
USG%: 42.3
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +15
PRA: 34

2026-08-19

GSV

AWAY

30.2MIN

20POINTS

5 · 7 · 8-10

BELOW

FG: 8-10
3PT: 3-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 91.9
USG%: 22.1
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +9
PRA: 32

2026-08-15

LVA

AWAY

34.2MIN

23POINTS

4 · 8 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 3-8
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 68.6
USG%: 29.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 35

2026-08-12

POR

AWAY

34.6MIN

13POINTS

5 · 7 · 3-13

BELOW

FG: 3-13
3PT: 1-3
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 40.4
USG%: 24.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +6
PRA: 25

2026-08-09

DAL

HOME

33.8MIN

20POINTS

1 · 13 · 7-12

BELOW

FG: 7-12
3PT: 5-8
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 77.6
USG%: 23.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +15
PRA: 34

2026-08-08

LVA

HOME

35.2MIN

26POINTS

4 · 7 · 11-23

ABOVE

FG: 11-23
3PT: 3-7
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 55.5
USG%: 34.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 37

2026-08-06

LAS

HOME

33.7MIN

23POINTS

8 · 5 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 3-6
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 64.8
USG%: 29.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 36

2026-08-02

IND

HOME

31.5MIN

28POINTS

4 · 6 · 11-14

ABOVE

FG: 11-14
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 91.4
USG%: 26.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -1
PRA: 38

2026-07-30

TOR

AWAY

22.8MIN

16POINTS

3 · 0 · 6-15

BELOW

FG: 6-15
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 46.5
USG%: 30.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +14
PRA: 19

2026-07-28

TOR

HOME

31.6MIN

24POINTS

6 · 8 · 9-17

ABOVE

FG: 9-17
3PT: 4-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 67.1
USG%: 29.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +7
PRA: 38

2026-07-22

SEA

AWAY

30.9MIN

13POINTS

3 · 6 · 5-15

BELOW

FG: 5-15
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 38.8
USG%: 26.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +9
PRA: 22

2026-07-20

SEA

AWAY

35.9MIN

32POINTS

8 · 8 · 13-24

ABOVE

FG: 13-24
3PT: 1-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 61.1
USG%: 32.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +10
PRA: 48

2026-07-18

POR

HOME

33.8MIN

14POINTS

4 · 10 · 5-14

BELOW

FG: 5-14
3PT: 2-3
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 45.7
USG%: 22.6
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +2
PRA: 28

2026-07-15

LAS

HOME

26.3MIN

18POINTS

4 · 5 · 7-14

BELOW

FG: 7-14
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 26.8
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -1
PRA: 27

2026-07-13

PHO

HOME

30.7MIN

33POINTS

3 · 8 · 10-16

ABOVE

FG: 10-16
3PT: 5-8
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 82.7
USG%: 38.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 5
+/−: +10
PRA: 44

2026-07-11

NYL

HOME

31.9MIN

23POINTS

5 · 4 · 6-16

ABOVE

FG: 6-16
3PT: 4-7
FT: 7-10
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 56.4
USG%: 30.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 32

2026-07-03

NYL

AWAY

26.2MIN

14POINTS

5 · 5 · 5-16

BELOW

FG: 5-16
3PT: 0-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 4/1
TS%: 39.4
USG%: 29.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 24

2026-06-28

DAL

AWAY

34.1MIN

21POINTS

3 · 8 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 1-4
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 63.6
USG%: 28.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 32

2026-06-24

WAS

AWAY

35.0MIN

21POINTS

4 · 5 · 6-18

BELOW

FG: 6-18
3PT: 1-6
FT: 8-12
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 45.1
USG%: 29.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 30

2026-06-21

WAS

HOME

32.5MIN

22POINTS

5 · 6 · 9-18

ABOVE

FG: 9-18
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 56.9
USG%: 32.2
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: -10
PRA: 33

2026-06-19

GSV

AWAY

32.3MIN

7POINTS

5 · 4 · 1-10

BELOW

FG: 1-10
3PT: 0-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 28.7
USG%: 24.8
STL: 3
BLK: 3
TOV: 6
PF: 4
+/−: +2
PRA: 16

2026-06-17

LAS

AWAY

26.0MIN

31POINTS

4 · 4 · 12-15

ABOVE

FG: 12-15
3PT: 2-3
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 87.9
USG%: 35.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +12
PRA: 39

2026-06-15

POR

HOME

23.0MIN

12POINTS

4 · 5 · 6-8

BELOW

FG: 6-8
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 19.2
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +21
PRA: 21

2026-06-13

LVA

AWAY

33.9MIN

29POINTS

4 · 1 · 11-20

ABOVE

FG: 11-20
3PT: 3-6
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 66.6
USG%: 35.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 6
PF: 3
+/−: -3
PRA: 34

2026-06-09

DAL

HOME

31.1MIN

24POINTS

7 · 6 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 2-3
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 88.8
USG%: 24.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +18
PRA: 37

2026-06-06

SEA

HOME

33.0MIN

19POINTS

6 · 6 · 9-14

BELOW

FG: 9-14
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 65.8
USG%: 20.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +19
PRA: 31

2026-06-04

GSV

HOME

28.3MIN

28POINTS

4 · 7 · 9-16

ABOVE

FG: 9-16
3PT: 8-11
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 82.9
USG%: 27.1
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: +14
PRA: 39

2026-06-01

PHO

AWAY

28.0MIN

19POINTS

4 · 9 · 7-9

BELOW

FG: 7-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 84.8
USG%: 25.3
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: +23
PRA: 32

2026-05-29

CHI

AWAY

31.7MIN

17POINTS

6 · 6 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 0-4
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 59.0
USG%: 25.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +20
PRA: 29

2026-05-27

ATL

HOME

33.6MIN

16POINTS

5 · 8 · 6-10

BELOW

FG: 6-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 65.6
USG%: 21.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +21
PRA: 29

2026-05-23

CHI

AWAY

33.2MIN

14POINTS

9 · 5 · 4-14

BELOW

FG: 4-14
3PT: 0-2
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 41.0
USG%: 26.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: +8
PRA: 28

2026-05-21

TOR

HOME

23.2MIN

14POINTS

4 · 5 · 6-10

BELOW

FG: 6-10
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 64.3
USG%: 24.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +22
PRA: 23

2026-05-17

CHI

HOME

34.6MIN

13POINTS

6 · 2 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 1-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 55.3
USG%: 19.5
STL: 4
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: +1
PRA: 21

2026-05-14

DAL

AWAY

31.5MIN

15POINTS

2 · 6 · 7-12

BELOW

FG: 7-12
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 60.3
USG%: 23.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 23

2026-05-12

PHO

AWAY

25.9MIN

13POINTS

6 · 7 · 5-10

BELOW

FG: 5-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 55.3
USG%: 23.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +6
PRA: 26

2026-05-09

ATL

HOME

33.8MIN

21POINTS

3 · 8 · 6-14

BELOW

FG: 6-14
3PT: 1-2
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 59.9
USG%: 25.6
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 32

every game on file — nothing hidden