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Ornella Bankole in blowouts

14 of 14 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
10 of these · baseline 4 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (3.8 pts) against in closer games (2.3), +1.5, t = 1.00, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.8
2.3
+1.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.8
1.0
+1.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.4
0.3
+1.2
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.4
0.8
−0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.0
3.5
+4.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.6
3.3
+3.4
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.2
2.5
+2.7
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.2
1.3
+3.0
gap is 2.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.1
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.6
0.5
+1.1
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.0
1.8
+1.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.4
0.8
+0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.0
+0.7
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
0.0
+0.6
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.2
0.5
+0.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
3.2
2.8
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.1
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 182 (this player's own top tercile)
5 of these · baseline 9 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (2.2 pts) against other games (4.0), -1.8, t = -1.41, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.5).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.2
4.0
−1.8
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.6
2.1
+0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
1.2
−0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.2
+0.4
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.6
7.3
−1.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.8
6.1
−1.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.0
5.2
−2.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
3.4
3.3
+0.1
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.2
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.8
3.1
−1.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.6
1.6
−1.0
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.2
0.9
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.6
3.3
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.2
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 168 (this player's own bottom tercile)
5 of these · baseline 9 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (4.4 pts) against other games (2.8), +1.6, t = 1.38, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.3).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.4
2.8
+1.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.8
2.0
+0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.2
0.4
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.4
5.8
+2.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
7.2
4.8
+2.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
5.6
3.8
+1.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.0
3.0
+1.0
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.8
1.0
+0.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.6
2.1
+1.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.6
1.0
+0.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
0.3
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
3.4
2.9
+0.5
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.2
1.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 14 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.3
2026-09-24
CON
AWAY
18.6MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
8.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-23
PRA
5
2026-09-22
CHI
AWAY
20.3MIN
6POINTS
7 · 1 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
50.0
USG%
12.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
14
2026-09-20
NYL
HOME
13.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
3.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
-20
PRA
3
2026-09-18
IND
HOME
19.5MIN
2POINTS
3 · 3 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
113.6
USG%
6.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
-7
PRA
8
2026-08-29
PHO
AWAY
21.0MIN
5POINTS
1 · 3 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
56.3
USG%
9.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-23
PRA
9
2026-08-28
LVA
AWAY
20.7MIN
7POINTS
5 · 2 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
58.3
USG%
13.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-13
PRA
14
2026-08-26
SEA
AWAY
13.1MIN
3POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
38.7
USG%
12.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-18
PRA
7
2026-08-23
LVA
HOME
19.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
9.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+2
PRA
9
2026-08-21
POR
HOME
15.5MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
14.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+17
PRA
8
2026-08-19
WAS
AWAY
15.3MIN
5POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
125.0
USG%
6.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-2
PRA
7
2026-08-18
IND
HOME
14.3MIN
3POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
5.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-9
PRA
6
2026-08-12
DAL
AWAY
4.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
0
2026-07-12
NYL
HOME
2.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-07-05
DAL
HOME
8.0MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
53.2
USG%
10.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden