Pauline Astier in blowouts

44 of 44 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10

21 of these · baseline 23NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (8.9 pts) against in closer games (10.1), -1.3, t = -0.80, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT

BLOWOUTS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

8.9

10.1

−1.3

t −0.80 · resolves ±3.1

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

3.0

2.6

+0.3

t +0.54 · resolves ±1.3

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

3.2

3.4

−0.2

t −0.40 · resolves ±1.0

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

0.6

0.3

+0.3

t +1.42 · resolves ±0.4

DIRECTIONAL

steals

0.6

1.0

−0.4

t −1.59 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.1

0.0

t +0.10 · resolves ±0.2

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

1.2

2.2

−0.9

t −2.63 · resolves ±0.7

MEASURED

pts+reb+ast

15.0

16.2

−1.1

t −0.52 · resolves ±4.2

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

11.8

12.7

−0.9

t −0.48 · resolves ±3.8

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

12.1

13.6

−1.5

t −0.81 · resolves ±3.6

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

6.2

6.0

+0.1

t +0.17 · resolves ±1.7

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.7

1.1

−0.4

t −1.50 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

high-scoring games

combined score >= 185 (this player's own top tercile)

15 of these · baseline 29DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (11.1 pts) against other games (8.7), +2.3, t = 1.25, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.7).

STAT

HIGH TOTAL

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

11.1

8.7

+2.3

t +1.25 · resolves ±3.7

DIRECTIONAL

rebounds

2.9

2.7

+0.2

t +0.36 · resolves ±1.3

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

3.9

3.0

+0.9

t +1.72 · resolves ±1.0

DIRECTIONAL

threes

0.3

0.5

−0.2

t −0.85 · resolves ±0.4

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

1.1

0.6

+0.5

t +1.66 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.1

0.2

−0.1

t −0.97 · resolves ±0.2

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

1.8

1.7

+0.1

t +0.27 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

17.9

14.4

+3.5

t +1.39 · resolves ±4.9

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

14.0

11.4

+2.6

t +1.14 · resolves ±4.4

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

15.0

11.8

+3.2

t +1.53 · resolves ±4.2

DIRECTIONAL

reb+ast

6.9

5.7

+1.1

t +1.21 · resolves ±1.8

DIRECTIONAL

steals+blocks

1.2

0.8

+0.4

t +1.28 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games

combined score <= 167 (this player's own bottom tercile)

15 of these · baseline 29MEASURED

low-scoring games (7.1 pts) against other games (10.8), -3.7, t = -2.75, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 2.7).

STAT

LOW TOTALS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

7.1

10.8

−3.7

t −2.75 · resolves ±2.7

MEASURED

rebounds

2.5

2.9

−0.5

t −0.75 · resolves ±1.2

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

3.3

3.4

−0.1

t −0.22 · resolves ±1.0

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

0.3

0.6

−0.3

t −1.47 · resolves ±0.4

DIRECTIONAL

steals

0.5

0.9

−0.4

t −1.60 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

blocks

0.3

0.1

+0.2

t +1.23 · resolves ±0.3

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

1.6

1.8

−0.2

t −0.52 · resolves ±0.7

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

12.8

17.1

−4.3

t −2.20 · resolves ±3.8

MEASURED

pts+reb

9.5

13.7

−4.2

t −2.45 · resolves ±3.4

MEASURED

pts+ast

10.3

14.2

−3.8

t −2.37 · resolves ±3.2

MEASURED

reb+ast

5.7

6.3

−0.6

t −0.67 · resolves ±1.7

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.8

1.0

−0.2

t −0.73 · resolves ±0.5

NOT MEASURABLE

Game log

all 44 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 10.1

2026-09-23

ATL

HOME

15.6MIN

4POINTS

3 · 2 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 28.6
USG%: 31.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -15
PRA: 9

2026-09-21

ATL

HOME

29.5MIN

15POINTS

4 · 4 · 6-9

ABOVE

FG: 6-9
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 75.9
USG%: 14.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 6
+/−: -7
PRA: 23

2026-09-20

TOR

AWAY

22.0MIN

10POINTS

9 · 3 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 72.7
USG%: 17.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +20
PRA: 22

2026-09-18

MIN

AWAY

27.3MIN

14POINTS

5 · 3 · 6-8

ABOVE

FG: 6-8
3PT: 2-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 87.5
USG%: 13.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: +8
PRA: 22

2026-08-29

CHI

HOME

25.0MIN

8POINTS

3 · 3 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 50.8
USG%: 19.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 14

2026-08-27

GSV

HOME

24.2MIN

4POINTS

3 · 3 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 16.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -17
PRA: 10

2026-08-22

IND

HOME

24.5MIN

8POINTS

3 · 2 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 55.6
USG%: 16.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +5
PRA: 13

2026-08-18

CHI

AWAY

19.2MIN

8POINTS

3 · 1 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 24.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -8
PRA: 12

2026-08-15

CON

AWAY

25.8MIN

8POINTS

0 · 4 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 17.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 12

2026-08-13

LAS

HOME

17.3MIN

7POINTS

2 · 5 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 64.3
USG%: 17.9
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +8
PRA: 14

2026-08-11

IND

AWAY

17.8MIN

3POINTS

3 · 3 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 31.5
USG%: 13.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -5
PRA: 9

2026-08-09

LVA

HOME

16.0MIN

6POINTS

2 · 1 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 104.2
USG%: 7.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +13
PRA: 9

2026-08-05

SEA

HOME

28.2MIN

11POINTS

3 · 5 · 4-4

ABOVE

FG: 4-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 103.4
USG%: 11.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +20
PRA: 19

2026-08-03

SEA

HOME

22.8MIN

12POINTS

0 · 2 · 4-5

ABOVE

FG: 4-5
3PT: 1-1
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 94.9
USG%: 14.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +10
PRA: 14

2026-08-01

PHO

AWAY

21.3MIN

6POINTS

0 · 2 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 42.9
USG%: 18.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +5
PRA: 8

2026-07-30

LVA

AWAY

21.5MIN

19POINTS

1 · 4 · 8-12

ABOVE

FG: 8-12
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 73.8
USG%: 30.5
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 24

2026-07-28

LAS

AWAY

15.9MIN

4POINTS

2 · 2 · 2-2

BELOW

FG: 2-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 8.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -6
PRA: 8

2026-07-22

CHI

HOME

21.8MIN

9POINTS

1 · 5 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 17.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 15

2026-07-20

DAL

AWAY

25.0MIN

7POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 35.0
USG%: 19.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 10

2026-07-18

IND

AWAY

22.6MIN

9POINTS

2 · 5 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 13.9
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -7
PRA: 16

2026-07-12

TOR

AWAY

24.7MIN

14POINTS

3 · 2 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 0-1
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 71.7
USG%: 21.7
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: +14
PRA: 19

2026-07-11

MIN

AWAY

23.4MIN

4POINTS

0 · 2 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 16.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 6

2026-07-07

DAL

HOME

23.4MIN

4POINTS

2 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 11.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -5
PRA: 7

2026-07-03

MIN

HOME

30.2MIN

14POINTS

2 · 6 · 5-6

ABOVE

FG: 5-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 90.2
USG%: 16.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +14
PRA: 22

2026-06-30

LVA

HOME

31.1MIN

15POINTS

5 · 4 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 1-1
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 76.8
USG%: 16.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +10
PRA: 24

2026-06-28

GSV

AWAY

22.7MIN

5POINTS

0 · 4 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 41.7
USG%: 14.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -12
PRA: 9

2026-06-25

SEA

AWAY

25.3MIN

3POINTS

1 · 5 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 27.6
USG%: 12.7
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 9

2026-06-23

LVA

AWAY

19.9MIN

7POINTS

2 · 2 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 15.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: +5
PRA: 11

2026-06-21

LAS

AWAY

21.5MIN

17POINTS

4 · 5 · 4-5

ABOVE

FG: 4-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 9-9
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 94.9
USG%: 23.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 26

2026-06-19

WAS

HOME

9.7MIN

2POINTS

1 · 1 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 18.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 4

2026-06-17

CHI

AWAY

23.2MIN

9POINTS

5 · 4 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 74.0
USG%: 11.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +8
PRA: 18

2026-06-14

WAS

HOME

20.0MIN

6POINTS

1 · 6 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 61.5
USG%: 14.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 13

2026-06-11

ATL

AWAY

26.2MIN

16POINTS

8 · 5 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 1-2
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 65.6
USG%: 22.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 29

2026-06-08

CON

AWAY

26.0MIN

6POINTS

3 · 4 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 33.8
USG%: 21.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +9
PRA: 13

2026-06-06

IND

HOME

24.1MIN

12POINTS

3 · 3 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 77.3
USG%: 15.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +8
PRA: 18

2026-06-03

TOR

HOME

28.1MIN

10POINTS

0 · 5 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 53.0
USG%: 15.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +20
PRA: 15

2026-05-29

PHO

HOME

30.9MIN

16POINTS

6 · 6 · 6-8

ABOVE

FG: 6-8
3PT: 1-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 82.0
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +10
PRA: 28

2026-05-27

PHO

HOME

22.8MIN

7POINTS

4 · 4 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 47.0
USG%: 19.7
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 15

2026-05-25

POR

HOME

31.8MIN

4POINTS

3 · 3 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 10.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -14
PRA: 10

2026-05-24

DAL

HOME

18.4MIN

7POINTS

0 · 1 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 90.2
USG%: 14.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -11
PRA: 8

2026-05-21

GSV

HOME

24.9MIN

7POINTS

5 · 2 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 70.0
USG%: 9.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -12
PRA: 14

2026-05-14

POR

AWAY

22.5MIN

20POINTS

3 · 2 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 72.7
USG%: 27.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +16
PRA: 25

2026-05-12

POR

AWAY

29.6MIN

24POINTS

5 · 3 · 10-14

ABOVE

FG: 10-14
3PT: 2-3
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 78.3
USG%: 31.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: -2
PRA: 32

2026-05-10

WAS

AWAY

35.0MIN

18POINTS

5 · 7 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 68.8
USG%: 20.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -1
PRA: 30

every game on file — nothing hidden