DIME
Get the picksJoin
points estimatesat home

Raquel Carrera in blowouts

26 of 26 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
15 of these · baseline 11 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (2.1 pts) against in closer games (1.0), +1.1, t = 1.06, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.1
1.0
+1.1
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.1
1.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.3
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.7
2.4
+1.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.2
2.1
+1.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.6
1.3
+1.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.7
1.4
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.7
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.1
0.5
+0.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.7
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.7
1.0
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 186 (this player's own top tercile)
9 of these · baseline 17 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (1.6 pts) against other games (1.6), -0.1, t = -0.08, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.6
1.6
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.8
1.3
−0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.2
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.1
0.6
−0.5
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
2.6
3.5
−0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.3
2.9
−0.6
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.8
2.2
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.0
1.8
−0.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 3.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
MEASURED
defensive rebounds
0.4
0.9
−0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.6
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.6
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 167 (this player's own bottom tercile)
9 of these · baseline 17 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (1.4 pts) against other games (1.7), -0.3, t = -0.22, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.4
1.7
−0.3
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.2
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.7
0.3
+0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.1
+0.4
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.3
3.1
+0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
2.7
2.8
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.1
2.0
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.9
1.4
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.4
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.4
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.4
1.0
−0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.2
0.4
−0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 26 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
MIN
AWAY
2.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
18.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-09-23
ATL
HOME
28.4MIN
9POINTS
5 · 4 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
116.0
USG%
10.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-25
PRA
18
2026-09-20
TOR
AWAY
6.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+15
PRA
0
2026-08-29
CHI
HOME
3.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-08-27
GSV
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-08-18
CHI
AWAY
5.9MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
1
2026-08-11
IND
AWAY
3.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-08-09
LVA
HOME
16.7MIN
4POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
12.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+19
PRA
10
2026-08-01
PHO
AWAY
1.9MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
23.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
2
2026-07-28
LAS
AWAY
2.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-07-22
CHI
HOME
3.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
1
2026-07-20
DAL
AWAY
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-07-18
IND
AWAY
7.9MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
106.4
USG%
10.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2026-07-12
TOR
AWAY
6.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
1
2026-07-11
MIN
AWAY
2.8MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
2
2026-07-07
DAL
HOME
4.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-07-03
MIN
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-06-30
LVA
HOME
6.0MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
21.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
2
2026-06-28
GSV
AWAY
7.6MIN
0POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-06-25
SEA
AWAY
16.8MIN
7POINTS
5 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
71.7
USG%
15.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
12
2026-06-21
LAS
AWAY
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
0
2026-06-14
WAS
HOME
1.8MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
106.4
USG%
49.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-06-11
ATL
AWAY
8.1MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+10
PRA
3
2026-06-08
CON
AWAY
13.2MIN
7POINTS
5 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
73.5
USG%
22.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+1
PRA
13
2026-05-27
PHO
HOME
1.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-05-24
DAL
HOME
1.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
every game on file — nothing hidden