DIME
Get the picksJoin
points estimatesat home

Raven Johnson in blowouts

42 of 42 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
25 of these · baseline 17 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (3.7 pts) against in closer games (3.1), +0.6, t = 0.51, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.7
3.1
+0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.7
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.9
1.5
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.3
6.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.4
4.8
+0.6
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.6
4.5
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.6
3.2
−0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.4
+0.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.2
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.8
2.8
+1.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.6
1.3
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.5
0.9
+0.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 198 (this player's own top tercile)
15 of these · baseline 27 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (2.2 pts) against other games (4.1), -1.9, t = -1.84, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.2
4.1
−1.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.3
2.0
−0.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.3
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
MEASURED
turnovers
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.8
7.1
−2.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
3.5
6.1
−2.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
3.5
5.2
−1.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.6
3.0
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.0
1.4
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.3
4.0
−1.6
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.9
1.8
−0.9
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
free throw attempts
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.9
1.5
−0.6
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.9
1.4
−0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 176 (this player's own bottom tercile)
15 of these · baseline 27 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (3.7 pts) against other games (3.3), +0.5, t = 0.43, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.2).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.7
3.3
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.3
1.4
+0.8
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.6
0.9
+0.7
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.7
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.6
5.6
+2.0
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
6.0
4.7
+1.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.3
4.1
+1.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.9
2.3
+1.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.9
0.5
+0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.5
1.1
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.3
2.9
+1.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.6
1.4
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.7
1.0
+0.7
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.5
1.1
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 42 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.1
2026-10-01PLAYOFF R1 G3
LVA
AWAY
18.8MIN
2POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
20.0
USG%
11.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
6
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2
LVA
HOME
21.7MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
60.0
USG%
10.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+15
PRA
8
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
LVA
AWAY
21.6MIN
14POINTS
0 · 1 · 6-7
ABOVE
FG
6-7
3PT
1-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
94.1
USG%
19.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
15
2026-09-24
MIN
AWAY
22.9MIN
6POINTS
3 · 4 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
35.5
USG%
15.2
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+10
PRA
13
2026-09-22
MIN
HOME
7.5MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
6.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+8
PRA
4
2026-09-20
WAS
HOME
26.1MIN
6POINTS
4 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.0
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
10
2026-09-18
TOR
AWAY
7.2MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.8
USG%
13.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-08-28
CON
HOME
1.7MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
26.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
2
2026-08-23
CHI
AWAY
4.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
18.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2026-08-18
TOR
AWAY
2.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
0
2026-08-16
ATL
AWAY
3.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-8
PRA
0
2026-08-14
DAL
HOME
0.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
72.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2026-08-11
NYL
HOME
2.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-08-08
CHI
AWAY
8.6MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
10.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
4
2026-08-02
MIN
AWAY
3.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
26.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-9
PRA
2
2026-07-31
POR
AWAY
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-07-18
NYL
HOME
3.6MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
11.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-07-17
SEA
HOME
2.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
45.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
0
2026-07-15
GSV
HOME
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
51.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-07-12
LVA
AWAY
2.6MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
125.0
USG%
36.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+8
PRA
6
2026-07-09
PHO
AWAY
22.7MIN
6POINTS
6 · 2 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
42.9
USG%
20.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
14
2026-07-08
LAS
AWAY
12.5MIN
3POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-9
BELOW
FG
1-9
3PT
0-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
15.2
USG%
37.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
7
2026-07-05
LVA
AWAY
21.8MIN
6POINTS
6 · 2 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
33.3
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
14
2026-06-27
LAS
HOME
20.7MIN
2POINTS
3 · 4 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-1
PRA
9
2026-06-24
PHO
HOME
18.7MIN
2POINTS
5 · 7 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
50.0
USG%
4.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+7
PRA
14
2026-06-22
PHO
HOME
18.1MIN
4POINTS
5 · 3 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
33.3
USG%
14.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+3
PRA
12
2026-06-20
ATL
AWAY
21.3MIN
9POINTS
6 · 2 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/5
TS%
75.0
USG%
13.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
17
2026-06-18
ATL
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
40.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-06-16
TOR
HOME
13.7MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
60.0
USG%
17.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+15
PRA
7
2026-06-13
CON
AWAY
3.0MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
15.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
4
2026-06-11
CHI
HOME
13.3MIN
3POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
150.0
USG%
2.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
3
2026-06-08
WAS
AWAY
7.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-06-06
NYL
AWAY
17.3MIN
6POINTS
2 · 4 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
38.1
USG%
22.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
12
2026-06-04
ATL
HOME
23.2MIN
5POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
12.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+15
PRA
10
2026-05-30
POR
AWAY
9.6MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
30.7
USG%
27.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
6
+/−
-11
PRA
4
2026-05-28
GSV
AWAY
21.3MIN
16POINTS
4 · 2 · 7-10
ABOVE
FG
7-10
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
80.0
USG%
22.2
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
22
2026-05-22
GSV
HOME
14.6MIN
7POINTS
2 · 2 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
70.0
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+5
PRA
11
2026-05-20
POR
HOME
22.3MIN
9POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-12
ABOVE
FG
3-12
3PT
1-8
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
34.9
USG%
32.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-8
PRA
13
2026-05-17
SEA
HOME
17.0MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-05-15
WAS
HOME
4.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
2
2026-05-13
LAS
AWAY
5.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
3
2026-05-09
DAL
HOME
11.6MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
106.4
USG%
9.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
8
every game on file — nothing hidden