Rayah Marshall in blowouts
21 of 21 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.
WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE
margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.
01
games decided by 10+
|final margin| >= 1021 of these · baseline 0 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE
21 game(s) in the bucket against 0 outside — too few on one side to compare
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT
A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.
served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season
project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED
A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.
served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season
project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.
02
high-scoring games
combined score >= 165 (this player's own top tercile)7 of these · baseline 14 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE
high-scoring games (2.1 pts) against other games (1.4), +0.7, t = 0.71, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.0).
STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.1
1.4
+0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
1.9
−0.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.1
0.5
−0.4
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.1
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.4
−0.4
gap is 2.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.6
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.6
3.8
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.4
3.3
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.3
1.9
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.4
2.4
−0.9
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.1
0.4
−0.3
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.7
1.3
−0.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.4
1.8
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.1
0.7
+0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.7
0.4
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.3
1.0
−0.7
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
03
low-scoring games
combined score <= 152 (this player's own bottom tercile)8 of these · baseline 13 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE
low-scoring games (1.5 pts) against other games (1.8), -0.3, t = -0.31, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7).
STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.5
1.8
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.8
1.0
+1.8
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
MEASURED
assists
0.9
0.1
+0.8
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
steals
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.1
2.8
+2.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
4.3
2.8
+1.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
2.4
1.8
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.6
1.1
+2.5
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.9
0.6
+1.3
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
MEASURED
field goal attempts
2.3
1.3
+0.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
1.1
−0.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.3
0.7
−0.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.4
+0.5
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.1
0.5
+0.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
04
Game log
all 21 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 0.0
2026-09-24TORHOME0.4MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -2
- PRA
- 0
2026-09-22WASAWAY7.5MIN2POINTS3 · 3 · 1-1ABOVE
- FG
- 1-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 100.0
- USG%
- 5.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 8
2026-08-26GSVHOME10.1MIN2POINTS1 · 0 · 1-2ABOVE
- FG
- 1-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 8.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -1
- PRA
- 3
2026-08-20LVAAWAY7.3MIN5POINTS3 · 1 · 1-1ABOVE
- FG
- 1-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 3-4
- OREB/DREB
- 2/1
- TS%
- 90.6
- USG%
- 16.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 9
2026-08-13ATLHOME6.2MIN1POINTS1 · 0 · 0-3ABOVE
- FG
- 0-3
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/0
- TS%
- 12.9
- USG%
- 34.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 2
2026-08-02DALAWAY3.6MIN0POINTS1 · 0 · 0-2BELOW
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 51.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -7
- PRA
- 1
2025-09-10ATLHOME4.3MIN2POINTS1 · 0 · 0-1ABOVE
- FG
- 0-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/0
- TS%
- 53.2
- USG%
- 29.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 3
2025-09-08ATLAWAY5.5MIN0POINTS1 · 0 · 0-1BELOW
- FG
- 0-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 8.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -2
- PRA
- 1
2025-09-03CHIAWAY11.5MIN4POINTS4 · 1 · 2-5ABOVE
- FG
- 2-5
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-1
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 36.8
- USG%
- 26.0
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 9
2025-09-01ATLHOME3.5MIN0POINTS1 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 1
2025-08-30MINHOME1.7MIN1POINTS0 · 0 · 0-1ABOVE
- FG
- 0-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 26.6
- USG%
- 47.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 1
2025-07-28SEAHOME4.7MIN5POINTS0 · 0 · 2-3ABOVE
- FG
- 2-3
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 72.7
- USG%
- 32.0
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 5
2025-07-27GSVHOME9.6MIN2POINTS2 · 0 · 1-2ABOVE
- FG
- 1-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 9.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 4
2025-07-06LVAHOME2.0MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 0
2025-06-29MINAWAY6.8MIN4POINTS1 · 0 · 2-3ABOVE
- FG
- 2-3
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 58.1
- USG%
- 29.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -6
- PRA
- 5
2025-06-22GSVAWAY11.0MIN5POINTS3 · 0 · 2-4ABOVE
- FG
- 2-4
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 56.3
- USG%
- 26.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +6
- PRA
- 8
2025-06-17INDAWAY0.8MIN1POINTS0 · 0 · 0-1ABOVE
- FG
- 0-1
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 26.6
- USG%
- 110.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 1
2025-06-01NYLAWAY8.3MIN1POINTS4 · 2 · 0-2ABOVE
- FG
- 0-2
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 2/2
- TS%
- 17.4
- USG%
- 16.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +9
- PRA
- 7
2025-05-27DALHOME7.8MIN0POINTS3 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 11.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 3
2025-05-25ATLAWAY2.4MIN0POINTS0 · 0 · 0-0BELOW
- FG
- 0-0
- 3PT
- 0-0
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 0.0
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 0
2025-05-20LVAHOME10.4MIN0POINTS6 · 1 · 0-3BELOW
- FG
- 0-3
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/5
- TS%
- 0.0
- USG%
- 13.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 7
every game on file — nothing hidden