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Rori Harmon in blowouts

15 of 15 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
12 of these · baseline 3 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (0.7 pts) against in closer games (1.3), -0.7, t = -0.72, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.8). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.7
1.3
−0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.2
2.0
−1.8
gap is 3.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
2.3
−1.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.0
1.7
−1.7
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.3
3.0
−2.8
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
1.4
5.7
−4.3
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
0.8
3.3
−2.5
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.3
3.7
−2.4
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
0.8
4.3
−3.6
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.0
1.7
−1.7
gap is 2.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.2
2.0
−1.8
gap is 3.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
0.5
1.7
−1.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.3
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.2
0.7
−0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.5
2.0
−1.5
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.2
1.0
−0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 182 (this player's own top tercile)
5 of these · baseline 10 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (1.2 pts) against other games (0.6), +0.6, t = 0.91, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.3).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.2
0.6
+0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
0.3
+0.7
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.6
0.6
+1.0
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.4
0.5
+0.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
3.8
1.5
+2.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
2.2
0.9
+1.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
2.8
1.2
+1.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
2.6
0.9
+1.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.0
0.3
+0.7
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.2
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.8
0.1
+0.7
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 161 (this player's own bottom tercile)
6 of these · baseline 9 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (0.7 pts) against other games (0.9), -0.2, t = -0.39, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.0
2.4
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.2
1.4
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.5
1.9
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.3
1.6
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
0.8
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.2
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.3
0.1
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.2
0.6
+0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.2
0.4
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 15 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.3
2026-09-22
CON
HOME
1.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-09-20
IND
AWAY
0.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-09-17
CHI
AWAY
3.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 3 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
3
2026-08-25
PHO
AWAY
1.6MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
28.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-08-19
TOR
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-07-16
POR
HOME
2.6MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
16.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
2
2026-07-14
TOR
AWAY
0.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-14
NYL
AWAY
2.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
1
2026-06-06
ATL
AWAY
1.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-02
CHI
HOME
1.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
25.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
1
2026-05-24
SEA
AWAY
2.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
47.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-05-18
DAL
AWAY
5.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 0-2
ABOVE
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
34.7
USG%
38.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-05-15
IND
AWAY
9.2MIN
1POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
56.8
USG%
9.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-05-10
NYL
HOME
21.7MIN
3POINTS
3 · 4 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
15.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
10
2026-05-08
TOR
AWAY
19.6MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.1
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-13
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden