Sabrina Ionescu over 16.5 points
She has cleared 16.5 in 103 of 212 games — 48.6%. That rate needs +105 to break even and books have been paying -104.
01
Distribution
212 games · hover a bucket0–5 points · 7 games · 3.3% · under7
5–10 points · 30 games · 14.2% · under30
10–15 points · 52 games · 24.5% · under52
15–20 points · 49 games · 23.1% · under49
20–25 points · 37 games · 17.5% · over37
25–30 points · 19 games · 9.0% · over19
30–35 points · 15 games · 7.1% · over15
35–40 points · 3 games · 1.4% · over3
16.5
UNDER · 109OVER · 103 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
points · line 16.5 · hover a bar2026-06-28 · GSV · 9 points · −7.5 vs line
2026-06-30 · LVA · 26 points · +9.5 vs line
2026-07-03 · MIN · 17 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-07-07 · DAL · 14 points · −2.5 vs line
2026-07-11 · MIN · 25 points · +8.5 vs line
2026-07-12 · TOR · 28 points · +11.5 vs line
2026-07-18 · IND · 12 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-07-20 · DAL · 21 points · +4.5 vs line
2026-07-22 · CHI · 29 points · +12.5 vs line
2026-07-28 · LAS · 27 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-07-30 · LVA · 15 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-08-01 · PHO · 27 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-08-03 · SEA · 18 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-08-05 · SEA · 15 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-08-09 · LVA · 5 points · −11.5 vs line
2026-08-11 · IND · 19 points · +2.5 vs line
2026-08-13 · LAS · 20 points · +3.5 vs line
2026-08-18 · CHI · 18 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-08-22 · IND · 12 points · −4.5 vs line
2026-08-27 · GSV · 7 points · −9.5 vs line
2026-08-29 · CHI · 2 points · −14.5 vs line
2026-09-18 · MIN · 17 points · +0.5 vs line
2026-09-20 · TOR · 6 points · −10.5 vs line
2026-09-21 · ATL · 15 points · −1.5 vs line
2026-09-23 · ATL · 7 points · −9.5 vs line
2026-09-27 · MIN · 13 points · −3.5 vs line
2026-09-29 · MIN · 18 points · +1.5 vs line
2026-10-04 · ATL · 27 points · +10.5 vs line
2026-10-07 · ATL · 10 points · −6.5 vs line
2026-10-09 · ATL · 12 points · −4.5 vs line
16.5
2026-06-28— 5-game mean2026-10-09 · newest
03
Recent form
30.0%3/10 · last 10
2026-08-29 · 2 points · UNDER
2
2026-09-18 · 17 points · OVER
17
2026-09-20 · 6 points · UNDER
6
2026-09-21 · 15 points · UNDER
15
2026-09-23 · 7 points · UNDER
7
2026-09-27 · 13 points · UNDER
13
2026-09-29 · 18 points · OVER
18
2026-10-04 · 27 points · OVER
27
2026-10-07 · 10 points · UNDER
10
2026-10-09 · 12 points · UNDER
12
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 32 postings16.5-104
best offered16.5+123
worst offered16.5-128
our break-even16.5+105
Median -104 across 32 postings over 17 games. Her rate has never been worth that price.
05
Game log
25 of 212 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 16.5
2026-10-09PLAYOFF R2 G3ATLHOME35.7MIN12POINTS4 · 3 · 4-12UNDER
- FG
- 4-12
- 3PT
- 4-11
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 20.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 19
2026-10-07PLAYOFF R2 G2ATLAWAY38.4MIN10POINTS4 · 7 · 3-8UNDER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 2-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 47.0
- USG%
- 16.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +8
- PRA
- 21
2026-10-04PLAYOFF R2 G1ATLAWAY34.0MIN27POINTS4 · 1 · 10-20OVER
- FG
- 10-20
- 3PT
- 3-8
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 62.0
- USG%
- 34.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 32
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2MINHOME32.9MIN18POINTS4 · 7 · 7-15OVER
- FG
- 7-15
- 3PT
- 4-10
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 60.0
- USG%
- 24.1
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +15
- PRA
- 29
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1MINAWAY28.2MIN13POINTS0 · 6 · 4-14UNDER
- FG
- 4-14
- 3PT
- 3-8
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 43.7
- USG%
- 27.3
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +12
- PRA
- 19
2026-09-23ATLHOME23.4MIN7POINTS4 · 1 · 2-7UNDER
- FG
- 2-7
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 44.4
- USG%
- 24.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -15
- PRA
- 12
2026-09-21ATLHOME28.8MIN15POINTS0 · 2 · 3-12UNDER
- FG
- 3-12
- 3PT
- 2-7
- FT
- 7-7
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 49.7
- USG%
- 25.8
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 17
2026-09-20TORAWAY22.2MIN6POINTS3 · 9 · 1-8UNDER
- FG
- 1-8
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 3-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 30.7
- USG%
- 25.0
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +19
- PRA
- 18
2026-09-18MINAWAY29.8MIN17POINTS3 · 6 · 6-15OVER
- FG
- 6-15
- 3PT
- 3-9
- FT
- 2-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 52.1
- USG%
- 28.4
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +15
- PRA
- 26
2026-08-29CHIHOME23.1MIN2POINTS5 · 4 · 0-10UNDER
- FG
- 0-10
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/5
- TS%
- 9.2
- USG%
- 22.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +9
- PRA
- 11
2026-08-27GSVHOME28.9MIN7POINTS2 · 4 · 2-12UNDER
- FG
- 2-12
- 3PT
- 1-9
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 27.2
- USG%
- 25.6
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -17
- PRA
- 13
2026-08-22INDHOME32.0MIN12POINTS3 · 4 · 5-11UNDER
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 50.5
- USG%
- 23.2
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 19
2026-08-18CHIAWAY33.7MIN18POINTS7 · 12 · 7-17OVER
- FG
- 7-17
- 3PT
- 2-10
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 50.3
- USG%
- 28.0
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 37
2026-08-13LASHOME32.6MIN20POINTS3 · 4 · 6-17OVER
- FG
- 6-17
- 3PT
- 1-9
- FT
- 7-9
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 47.7
- USG%
- 31.9
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -1
- PRA
- 27
2026-08-11INDAWAY27.7MIN19POINTS4 · 5 · 7-11OVER
- FG
- 7-11
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 74.5
- USG%
- 27.1
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 28
2026-08-09LVAHOME20.6MIN5POINTS3 · 2 · 2-10UNDER
- FG
- 2-10
- 3PT
- 1-6
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 25.0
- USG%
- 23.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +16
- PRA
- 10
2026-08-05SEAHOME31.2MIN15POINTS5 · 6 · 4-14UNDER
- FG
- 4-14
- 3PT
- 1-6
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 2/3
- TS%
- 45.1
- USG%
- 22.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +5
- PRA
- 26
2026-08-03SEAHOME29.4MIN18POINTS2 · 5 · 7-10OVER
- FG
- 7-10
- 3PT
- 4-6
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 90.0
- USG%
- 23.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +4
- PRA
- 25
2026-08-01PHOAWAY35.1MIN27POINTS7 · 10 · 9-19OVER
- FG
- 9-19
- 3PT
- 4-10
- FT
- 5-5
- OREB/DREB
- 2/5
- TS%
- 63.7
- USG%
- 30.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +6
- PRA
- 44
2026-07-30LVAAWAY29.1MIN15POINTS4 · 5 · 4-7UNDER
- FG
- 4-7
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 6-7
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 74.4
- USG%
- 19.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -12
- PRA
- 24
2026-07-28LASAWAY35.5MIN27POINTS7 · 6 · 9-16OVER
- FG
- 9-16
- 3PT
- 5-9
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/6
- TS%
- 76.0
- USG%
- 29.7
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 7
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 40
2026-07-22CHIHOME35.1MIN29POINTS4 · 4 · 8-11OVER
- FG
- 8-11
- 3PT
- 5-7
- FT
- 8-8
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 99.9
- USG%
- 21.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +5
- PRA
- 37
2026-07-20DALAWAY35.8MIN21POINTS4 · 2 · 8-25OVER
- FG
- 8-25
- 3PT
- 2-10
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 39.9
- USG%
- 34.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +7
- PRA
- 27
2026-07-18INDAWAY33.5MIN12POINTS1 · 4 · 4-9UNDER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 2-4
- FT
- 2-4
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 55.8
- USG%
- 15.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -14
- PRA
- 17
2026-07-12TORAWAY33.1MIN28POINTS4 · 8 · 9-18OVER
- FG
- 9-18
- 3PT
- 3-7
- FT
- 7-8
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 65.1
- USG%
- 26.5
- STL
- 4
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 40
showing 25 of 212 — every rate above is computed over all 212