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Serah Williams in blowouts

39 of 39 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 19 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.8 pts) against in closer games (3.7), +1.1, t = 0.87, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.8
3.7
+1.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.5
2.9
−0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.8
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.8
7.1
+0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.3
6.7
+0.6
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.3
4.2
+1.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.0
3.4
−0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.8
1.8
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.5
2.8
+0.6
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.0
1.4
+0.6
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.2
1.5
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.8
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
1.1
−0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.7
2.2
−0.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 184 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 26 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (5.8 pts) against other games (3.5), +2.3, t = 1.73, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.7).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.8
3.5
+2.3
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.7
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.0
0.0
0.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.7
0.4
+0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.2
6.6
+2.5
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
8.5
6.2
+2.3
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
6.5
3.9
+2.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
3.3
3.1
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.2
0.7
+0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.5
2.0
−0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
4.3
2.6
+1.7
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
MEASURED
field goals made
2.6
1.3
+1.3
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
MEASURED
free throw attempts
1.1
1.5
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
0.9
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.2
0.8
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
2.0
1.9
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 168 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 25 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (3.9 pts) against other games (4.5), -0.7, t = -0.51, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
3.9
4.5
−0.7
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
3.3
2.4
+0.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.0
0.0
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.4
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
0.8
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
7.6
7.4
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.1
6.9
+0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.3
5.0
−0.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.7
2.9
+0.8
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
2.4
1.4
+1.0
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
field goal attempts
3.0
3.2
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.6
1.8
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.4
1.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.9
1.0
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.3
1.7
+0.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.1
0.0
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 39 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.7
2026-09-22
GSV
HOME
7.8MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
1
2026-09-20
LAS
AWAY
14.8MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
23.4
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
8
2026-09-18
GSV
AWAY
16.4MIN
0POINTS
5 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
5
2026-09-17
PHO
HOME
28.1MIN
10POINTS
7 · 0 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
4/3
TS%
51.2
USG%
15.2
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
0
PRA
17
2026-08-30
GSV
HOME
14.1MIN
8POINTS
5 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
75.2
USG%
18.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
13
2026-08-28
ATL
AWAY
13.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.3
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
2
2026-08-23
WAS
HOME
12.9MIN
2POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
25.0
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-21
PRA
6
2026-08-21
TOR
AWAY
19.1MIN
10POINTS
5 · 0 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
71.4
USG%
18.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-10
PRA
15
2026-08-16
PHO
AWAY
12.8MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
113.6
USG%
6.0
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
7
2026-08-14
SEA
AWAY
12.2MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.6
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
3
2026-08-12
MIN
HOME
16.5MIN
6POINTS
4 · 1 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
100.0
USG%
15.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
+2
PRA
11
2026-08-08
SEA
HOME
16.0MIN
3POINTS
0 · 2 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
79.8
USG%
11.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-08-06
TOR
HOME
12.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-08-02
LAS
HOME
10.9MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
11.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
4
2026-07-31
IND
HOME
14.6MIN
10POINTS
4 · 0 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
77.6
USG%
21.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
14
2026-07-28
LVA
AWAY
13.2MIN
4POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
51.5
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
7
2026-07-22
DAL
HOME
15.4MIN
8POINTS
4 · 0 · 4-4
ABOVE
FG
4-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
100.0
USG%
18.7
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
12
2026-07-18
MIN
AWAY
23.1MIN
8POINTS
2 · 1 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
17.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+5
PRA
11
2026-07-16
WAS
AWAY
24.7MIN
12POINTS
5 · 1 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
87.2
USG%
15.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+17
PRA
18
2026-07-14
CON
AWAY
8.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
113.6
USG%
4.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
4
2026-07-11
ATL
AWAY
13.4MIN
15POINTS
2 · 1 · 6-6
ABOVE
FG
6-6
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
102.5
USG%
26.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+9
PRA
18
2026-07-09
LVA
HOME
5.6MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
32.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
3
2026-07-04
SEA
AWAY
12.5MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
2
2026-06-28
WAS
AWAY
13.9MIN
4POINTS
7 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
4/3
TS%
51.5
USG%
12.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
11
2026-06-26
CHI
AWAY
11.2MIN
6POINTS
0 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
43.6
USG%
24.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
7
2026-06-24
CHI
AWAY
7.1MIN
6POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
100.0
USG%
25.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
9
2026-06-17
SEA
HOME
12.3MIN
1POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
26.6
USG%
13.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
5
2026-06-15
MIN
AWAY
12.8MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
13.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
5
2026-06-13
DAL
HOME
5.7MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
53.2
USG%
15.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
3
2026-06-11
LVA
HOME
5.3MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
9.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+10
PRA
4
2026-06-02
GSV
AWAY
8.8MIN
7POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
93.1
USG%
20.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
8
2026-05-29
ATL
HOME
20.0MIN
0POINTS
6 · 2 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
11.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+1
PRA
8
2026-05-27
CON
HOME
10.7MIN
1POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
56.8
USG%
8.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2026-05-25
NYL
AWAY
11.3MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
29.6
USG%
25.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
7
2026-05-23
TOR
AWAY
13.7MIN
8POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
58.1
USG%
21.5
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
11
2026-05-20
IND
AWAY
16.5MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
55.1
USG%
16.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+10
PRA
8
2026-05-18
CON
HOME
12.4MIN
3POINTS
5 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
54.3
USG%
10.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-14
PRA
8
2026-05-14
NYL
HOME
4.0MIN
1POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
56.8
USG%
9.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
4
2026-05-09
CHI
HOME
8.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
3
every game on file — nothing hidden