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Taylor Thierry in blowouts

35 of 35 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
27 of these · baseline 8 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (1.0 pts) against in closer games (1.6), -0.7, t = -0.58, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.2). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.0
1.6
−0.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
1.1
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.5
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.4
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
2.1
3.3
−1.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.9
2.8
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.2
2.1
−0.9
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.2
1.6
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.2
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.1
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.8
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 173 (this player's own top tercile)
12 of these · baseline 23 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (1.7 pts) against other games (0.8), +0.8, t = 0.97, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.7).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
1.7
0.8
+0.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
0.8
+0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.0
0.2
−0.2
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
3.5
1.8
+1.7
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
3.0
1.7
+1.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.2
1.0
+1.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
1.8
1.0
+0.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.4
+0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.3
1.2
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.5
0.3
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.4
0.0
+0.4
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.6
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
0.7
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 156 (this player's own bottom tercile)
12 of these · baseline 23 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (0.9 pts) against other games (1.2), -0.3, t = -0.39, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.5).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
0.9
1.2
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
0.8
1.1
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.3
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.2
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
1.9
2.7
−0.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
1.7
2.3
−0.7
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
1.2
1.5
−0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
1.0
1.4
−0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.3
1.2
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.2
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.4
0.6
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 35 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.6
2026-09-23
DAL
HOME
12.1MIN
3POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
150.0
USG%
3.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
6
2026-09-20
LVA
AWAY
17.7MIN
6POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
61.5
USG%
11.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
9
2026-09-19
GSV
AWAY
31.2MIN
7POINTS
3 · 2 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
43.8
USG%
13.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
12
2026-09-17
LVA
HOME
26.8MIN
4POINTS
4 · 0 · 1-5
ABOVE
FG
1-5
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
34.0
USG%
9.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-21
PRA
8
2026-08-30
LAS
HOME
12.0MIN
0POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
3/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+15
PRA
4
2026-08-23
DAL
AWAY
2.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
1
2026-08-14
POR
HOME
2.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
35.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-08-10
CHI
HOME
21.8MIN
7POINTS
6 · 3 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
4/2
TS%
90.2
USG%
7.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+16
PRA
16
2026-07-06
LAS
AWAY
2.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-07-02
PHO
AWAY
2.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2026-06-27
ATL
HOME
6.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-06-25
NYL
HOME
2.7MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-06-20
PHO
AWAY
6.9MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2026-06-17
POR
AWAY
2.6MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
1
2026-06-06
MIN
AWAY
1.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2026-05-22
CON
HOME
4.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-05-20
CON
HOME
9.2MIN
6POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
19.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
-4
PRA
8
2025-09-16PLAYOFF R1 G2
IND
AWAY
1.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2025-08-17
GSV
AWAY
1.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
25.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
0
2025-08-07
CHI
AWAY
1.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
1
2025-08-03
WAS
HOME
0.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2025-08-01
PHO
HOME
6.4MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
25.8
USG%
37.7
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
4
2025-07-30
DAL
AWAY
3.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
1
2025-07-22
LVA
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2025-07-16
CHI
AWAY
7.6MIN
1POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
12.9
USG%
24.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
4
2025-07-11
IND
AWAY
1.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2025-07-07
GSV
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
0
2025-06-24
DAL
AWAY
0.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2025-06-22
CHI
HOME
0.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2025-06-15
WAS
AWAY
3.3MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
29.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2025-06-13
CHI
HOME
1.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
0
2025-06-10
IND
HOME
1.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2025-05-27
LAS
AWAY
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
50.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
0
2025-05-25
CON
HOME
2.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
0
2025-05-20
IND
AWAY
0.3MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
every game on file — nothing hidden