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Teja Oblak in blowouts

29 of 29 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
15 of these · baseline 14 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (5.5 pts) against in closer games (5.6), -0.0, t = -0.03, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.5
5.6
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.7
1.5
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.5
2.9
+0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.7
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.5
2.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
10.7
9.9
+0.7
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.2
7.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
9.0
8.4
+0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
5.1
4.4
+0.8
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.9
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.1
1.0
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
5.5
4.9
+0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.2
2.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.7
1.4
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.1
2.0
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 183 (this player's own top tercile)
10 of these · baseline 19 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (5.3 pts) against other games (5.7), -0.4, t = -0.26, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.3
5.7
−0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.5
1.6
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
2.6
3.5
−0.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.6
0.8
−0.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.1
2.7
−0.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
9.4
10.8
−1.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.8
7.3
−0.5
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.9
9.2
−1.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.1
5.1
−1.0
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.6
5.5
−0.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.1
2.2
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.3
1.6
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.8
2.2
−0.4
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 166 (this player's own bottom tercile)
10 of these · baseline 19 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (6.0 pts) against other games (5.3), +0.7, t = 0.44, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.0).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.0
5.3
+0.7
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.0
1.4
+0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
4.2
2.6
+1.6
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
DIRECTIONAL
threes
0.8
0.7
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.8
0.6
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
2.8
2.3
+0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
12.2
9.3
+2.9
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
8.0
6.7
+1.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
10.2
7.9
+2.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
6.2
4.0
+2.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.9
0.6
+0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.2
1.0
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
6.3
4.6
+1.7
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.4
2.1
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.6
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
0.4
+0.4
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
1.8
1.4
+0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.5
1.8
+0.7
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 29 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 5.6
2026-08-30
GSV
HOME
21.9MIN
5POINTS
4 · 7 · 2-8
BELOW
FG
2-8
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
31.3
USG%
24.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
-17
PRA
16
2026-08-25
DAL
AWAY
10.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
24.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+2
PRA
2
2026-08-21
TOR
AWAY
8.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 5 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
16.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
7
2026-08-14
SEA
AWAY
12.6MIN
0POINTS
1 · 3 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2026-08-12
MIN
HOME
21.5MIN
11POINTS
6 · 9 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
2-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
55.7
USG%
24.0
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
26
2026-08-02
LAS
HOME
13.4MIN
12POINTS
2 · 3 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
1-2
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
76.1
USG%
32.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-7
PRA
17
2026-07-31
IND
HOME
9.4MIN
3POINTS
2 · 3 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
36.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
0
+/−
-6
PRA
8
2026-07-28
LVA
AWAY
15.2MIN
6POINTS
0 · 2 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
51.0
USG%
28.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
4
+/−
-6
PRA
8
2026-07-22
DAL
HOME
8.8MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
16.7
USG%
38.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
4
2026-07-18
MIN
AWAY
9.9MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
16.7
USG%
31.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
3
2026-07-16
WAS
AWAY
17.0MIN
9POINTS
1 · 2 · 4-12
ABOVE
FG
4-12
3PT
1-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
37.5
USG%
43.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
5
+/−
+1
PRA
12
2026-07-14
CON
AWAY
7.3MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
53.2
USG%
38.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
2
2026-07-11
ATL
AWAY
14.3MIN
10POINTS
1 · 7 · 4-4
ABOVE
FG
4-4
3PT
1-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
102.5
USG%
22.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
18
2026-07-09
LVA
HOME
16.9MIN
11POINTS
1 · 2 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
3-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
68.8
USG%
27.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-19
PRA
14
2026-07-04
SEA
AWAY
15.7MIN
5POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
35.7
USG%
26.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
8
2026-06-28
WAS
AWAY
9.4MIN
2POINTS
3 · 3 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
24.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
8
2026-06-26
CHI
AWAY
10.1MIN
5POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
35.7
USG%
35.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-20
PRA
7
2026-06-24
CHI
AWAY
7.7MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
37.5
USG%
35.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
4
2026-06-17
SEA
HOME
11.0MIN
5POINTS
0 · 2 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
83.3
USG%
19.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-06-15
MIN
AWAY
16.6MIN
9POINTS
6 · 5 · 4-7
ABOVE
FG
4-7
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/4
TS%
64.3
USG%
25.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-8
PRA
20
2026-06-13
DAL
HOME
12.7MIN
3POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
14.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
6
2026-06-11
LVA
HOME
11.5MIN
9POINTS
3 · 6 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
71.2
USG%
26.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
18
2026-06-07
LAS
AWAY
16.5MIN
2POINTS
2 · 5 · 1-7
BELOW
FG
1-7
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
14.3
USG%
22.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
9
2026-06-05
PHO
HOME
15.8MIN
11POINTS
1 · 4 · 4-4
ABOVE
FG
4-4
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
112.7
USG%
26.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
+13
PRA
16
2026-06-02
GSV
AWAY
11.8MIN
11POINTS
1 · 2 · 5-6
ABOVE
FG
5-6
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
91.7
USG%
36.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
0
+/−
-12
PRA
14
2026-05-30
IND
HOME
10.3MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
21.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
4
2026-05-27
CON
HOME
17.3MIN
5POINTS
0 · 2 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
57.9
USG%
20.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
+11
PRA
7
2026-05-25
NYL
AWAY
18.0MIN
10POINTS
3 · 4 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
62.5
USG%
28.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-2
PRA
17
2026-05-23
TOR
AWAY
16.7MIN
3POINTS
1 · 9 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
37.5
USG%
15.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
13
every game on file — nothing hidden