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Teonni Key in blowouts

39 of 39 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
28 of these · baseline 11 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (2.1 pts) against in closer games (2.4), -0.3, t = -0.39, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.5). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.1
2.4
−0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.3
1.6
+0.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
assists
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.3
0.6
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.4
0.5
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.9
4.5
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.4
4.0
+0.4
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.6
2.9
−0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.8
2.2
+0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
1.2
−0.4
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.3
0.9
+0.4
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
2.2
2.5
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.9
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.0
0.7
+0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
1.5
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.4
0.9
−0.5
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 188 (this player's own top tercile)
13 of these · baseline 26 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (2.1 pts) against other games (2.2), -0.1, t = -0.16, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.4).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.1
2.2
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.8
2.2
−0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.2
0.7
−0.5
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
threes
0.2
0.0
+0.2
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.5
0.7
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
4.1
5.1
−1.0
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
3.9
4.4
−0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
2.2
2.9
−0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.0
2.9
−0.9
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.8
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.1
1.3
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
1.9
2.5
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
0.8
0.9
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.4
0.7
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.8
1.2
+0.6
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 172 (this player's own bottom tercile)
14 of these · baseline 25 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (2.3 pts) against other games (2.1), +0.2, t = 0.31, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 1.3).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
2.3
2.1
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
2.4
2.0
+0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.7
0.4
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.3
+0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.8
0.3
+0.5
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
MEASURED
turnovers
0.6
0.6
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
5.4
4.4
+0.9
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
4.6
4.0
+0.6
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
3.0
2.5
+0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
3.1
2.4
+0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.4
0.6
+0.8
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.1
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
2.8
2.0
+0.8
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.9
0.4
+0.5
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.5
1.3
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.5
0.6
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 39 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.4
2026-09-24
CON
AWAY
21.0MIN
2POINTS
5 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
9.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
8
2026-09-22
CHI
AWAY
20.6MIN
6POINTS
5 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
61.5
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-15
PRA
12
2026-09-20
NYL
HOME
20.8MIN
5POINTS
5 · 1 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
4/1
TS%
31.7
USG%
16.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-19
PRA
11
2026-09-18
IND
HOME
20.5MIN
2POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
69.4
USG%
5.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
5
2026-08-29
PHO
AWAY
19.5MIN
5POINTS
8 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
86.8
USG%
6.7
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-8
PRA
13
2026-08-28
LVA
AWAY
23.8MIN
3POINTS
6 · 3 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
3/3
TS%
31.5
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-7
PRA
12
2026-08-26
SEA
AWAY
17.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
16.7
USG%
16.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-15
PRA
3
2026-08-23
LVA
HOME
23.6MIN
2POINTS
3 · 3 · 1-6
BELOW
FG
1-6
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
16.7
USG%
13.8
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
8
2026-08-21
POR
HOME
12.7MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-8
ABOVE
FG
2-8
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
28.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
5
2026-08-19
WAS
AWAY
17.1MIN
8POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
58.1
USG%
22.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
11
2026-08-06
POR
AWAY
1.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-04
GSV
AWAY
0.4MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-08-02
GSV
AWAY
1.1MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
87.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-2
PRA
1
2026-07-30
MIN
HOME
12.5MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
1
2026-07-28
MIN
AWAY
15.7MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.7
STL
2
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-07-20
LVA
HOME
3.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
14.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
3
2026-07-17
ATL
HOME
0.9MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
2026-07-14
WAS
HOME
0.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
1
2026-07-10
DAL
HOME
7.1MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
0
2026-07-08
GSV
HOME
11.2MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
72.7
USG%
19.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
6
2026-07-05
DAL
HOME
10.5MIN
2POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
8.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
2
2026-06-25
LAS
HOME
1.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-5
PRA
0
2026-06-22
ATL
AWAY
2.4MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+6
PRA
2
2026-06-19
CON
AWAY
3.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
0.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
0
2026-06-16
IND
AWAY
11.0MIN
2POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
33.3
USG%
15.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-11
PRA
4
2026-06-14
ATL
HOME
5.7MIN
0POINTS
2 · 2 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
8.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
4
2026-06-12
WAS
AWAY
14.7MIN
2POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
6.1
STL
3
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-9
PRA
5
2026-06-10
CON
HOME
8.9MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
4
2026-06-07
CHI
HOME
12.1MIN
1POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
56.8
USG%
6.4
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-06-03
NYL
AWAY
9.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2026-05-30
SEA
HOME
9.3MIN
0POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
1
2026-05-27
CHI
AWAY
10.0MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
17.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
4
2026-05-23
POR
HOME
11.2MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
11.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-05-21
MIN
AWAY
15.8MIN
4POINTS
3 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
40.0
USG%
16.9
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
7
2026-05-19
PHO
AWAY
10.6MIN
3POINTS
2 · 0 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.0
USG%
20.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+5
PRA
5
2026-05-17
LAS
AWAY
19.9MIN
6POINTS
7 · 0 · 2-6
ABOVE
FG
2-6
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
43.6
USG%
15.1
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
0
PRA
13
2026-05-15
LAS
AWAY
8.9MIN
5POINTS
2 · 1 · 1-1
ABOVE
FG
1-1
3PT
1-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
133.0
USG%
9.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-1
PRA
8
2026-05-13
SEA
HOME
8.1MIN
2POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
5.5
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
3
2026-05-08
WAS
HOME
9.3MIN
0POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
4
every game on file — nothing hidden