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Tonie Morgan in blowouts

12 of 12 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
6 of these · baseline 6 (in closer games)MEASURED

in blowouts (7.7 pts) against in closer games (3.7), +4.0, t = 2.18, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 3.6). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
7.7
3.7
+4.0
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
MEASURED
rebounds
1.2
1.3
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.8
1.5
+2.3
gap is 2.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
MEASURED
threes
0.5
0.2
+0.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.3
0.5
+0.8
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
2.2
1.2
+1.0
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
12.7
6.5
+6.2
gap is 4.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
MEASURED
pts+reb
8.8
5.0
+3.8
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
MEASURED
pts+ast
11.5
5.2
+6.3
gap is 4.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
MEASURED
reb+ast
5.0
2.8
+2.2
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
1.7
0.5
+1.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.5
3.3
+1.2
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.3
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
3.0
1.5
+1.5
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.7
1.0
+0.7
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.2
0.5
+0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.3
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.3
1.2
+1.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
1.2
0.7
+0.5
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 174 (this player's own top tercile)
4 of these · baseline 8 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (6.3 pts) against other games (5.4), +0.9, t = 0.46, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.7).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
6.3
5.4
+0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.3
1.3
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
3.0
2.5
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.5
0.3
+0.3
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.5
0.6
+0.9
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.1
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
2.3
1.4
+0.9
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
10.5
9.1
+1.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.5
6.6
+0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
9.3
7.9
+1.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.3
3.8
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.8
0.8
+1.0
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.8
1.1
−0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.5
3.6
+0.9
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
2.5
2.1
+0.4
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.3
1.4
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.8
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.1
+0.4
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.8
1.8
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
1.3
0.8
+0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 162 (this player's own bottom tercile)
5 of these · baseline 7 (other games)DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (4.2 pts) against other games (6.7), -2.5, t = -1.22, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.2
6.7
−2.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.1
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.2
1.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
2.8
2.6
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.0
0.6
−0.6
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.0
0.3
−0.3
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.4
1.9
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.2
10.6
−2.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
5.4
8.0
−2.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
7.0
9.3
−2.3
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.8
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.0
3.9
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
1.4
−0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.6
4.1
−0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.8
2.6
−0.8
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.0
1.6
−0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.6
1.0
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.8
1.7
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.4
1.3
−0.9
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 12 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.7
2026-09-24
GSV
HOME
20.6MIN
4POINTS
2 · 4 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
51.5
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
10
2026-09-22
LVA
AWAY
18.3MIN
14POINTS
1 · 2 · 6-7
ABOVE
FG
6-7
3PT
2-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
100.0
USG%
23.3
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
17
2026-09-20
POR
HOME
21.0MIN
7POINTS
3 · 4 · 3-3
ABOVE
FG
3-3
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
116.7
USG%
12.6
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
14
2026-09-17
DAL
AWAY
19.7MIN
7POINTS
0 · 4 · 2-8
ABOVE
FG
2-8
3PT
0-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
35.9
USG%
24.1
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-12
PRA
11
2026-08-30
SEA
AWAY
17.5MIN
3POINTS
2 · 4 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
52.1
USG%
11.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
9
2026-08-28
WAS
HOME
10.9MIN
5POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.5
USG%
17.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
6
2026-08-24
ATL
HOME
15.0MIN
0POINTS
1 · 3 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
4
2026-08-22
CON
HOME
14.7MIN
2POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
33.3
USG%
12.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
6
2026-08-20
ATL
HOME
16.9MIN
8POINTS
1 · 3 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
73.5
USG%
19.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-19
PRA
12
2026-08-18
CON
AWAY
20.0MIN
8POINTS
0 · 0 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
80.0
USG%
17.8
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-14
PRA
8
2026-08-15
WAS
AWAY
16.7MIN
7POINTS
0 · 6 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
105.4
USG%
15.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-11
PRA
13
2026-08-11
PHO
HOME
6.4MIN
3POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
24.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
5
every game on file — nothing hidden