Valeriane Ayayi in blowouts

35 of 35 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10

13 of these · baseline 22NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (6.5 pts) against in closer games (6.1), +0.4, t = 0.19, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 4.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT

BLOWOUTS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

6.5

6.1

+0.4

t +0.19 · resolves ±4.1

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

3.0

2.6

+0.4

t +0.41 · resolves ±1.7

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

1.3

1.2

+0.1

t +0.19 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

0.6

0.5

+0.1

t +0.36 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.2

0.6

−0.4

t −2.06 · resolves ±0.4

MEASURED

blocks

0.3

0.2

+0.1

t +0.65 · resolves ±0.4

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

1.5

1.2

+0.2

t +0.57 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb+ast

10.8

10.0

+0.8

t +0.31 · resolves ±5.3

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

9.5

8.8

+0.8

t +0.29 · resolves ±5.2

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

7.8

7.4

+0.5

t +0.22 · resolves ±4.3

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

4.3

3.9

+0.4

t +0.50 · resolves ±1.8

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.5

0.8

−0.3

t −1.16 · resolves ±0.5

DIRECTIONAL

THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

high-scoring games

combined score >= 180 (this player's own top tercile)

12 of these · baseline 23NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (6.4 pts) against other games (6.2), +0.2, t = 0.10, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.9).

STAT

HIGH TOTAL

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

6.4

6.2

+0.2

t +0.10 · resolves ±3.9

NOT MEASURABLE

rebounds

2.6

2.9

−0.3

t −0.41 · resolves ±1.4

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

1.6

1.1

+0.5

t +1.29 · resolves ±0.8

DIRECTIONAL

threes

0.6

0.5

+0.1

t +0.21 · resolves ±0.6

NOT MEASURABLE

steals

0.4

0.5

−0.1

t −0.44 · resolves ±0.5

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.3

0.2

+0.2

t +0.78 · resolves ±0.4

NOT MEASURABLE

turnovers

0.8

1.6

−0.7

t −1.91 · resolves ±0.8

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

10.6

10.2

+0.4

t +0.17 · resolves ±4.8

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+reb

9.0

9.1

−0.1

t −0.04 · resolves ±4.7

NOT MEASURABLE

pts+ast

8.0

7.3

+0.7

t +0.33 · resolves ±4.1

NOT MEASURABLE

reb+ast

4.2

4.0

+0.2

t +0.28 · resolves ±1.4

NOT MEASURABLE

steals+blocks

0.8

0.7

+0.1

t +0.21 · resolves ±0.5

NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games

combined score <= 164 (this player's own bottom tercile)

12 of these · baseline 23DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (4.3 pts) against other games (7.3), -3.0, t = -1.50, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 3.9).

STAT

LOW TOTALS

OTHER

DIFF

← below baseline · above →

VERDICT

points

4.3

7.3

−3.0

t −1.50 · resolves ±3.9

DIRECTIONAL

rebounds

2.3

3.0

−0.7

t −0.86 · resolves ±1.5

NOT MEASURABLE

assists

1.1

1.3

−0.3

t −0.68 · resolves ±0.8

NOT MEASURABLE

threes

0.3

0.7

−0.3

t −1.03 · resolves ±0.6

DIRECTIONAL

steals

0.6

0.4

+0.1

t +0.57 · resolves ±0.5

NOT MEASURABLE

blocks

0.1

0.3

−0.2

t −1.54 · resolves ±0.3

DIRECTIONAL

turnovers

1.7

1.1

+0.5

t +1.20 · resolves ±0.9

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb+ast

7.8

11.7

−3.9

t −1.54 · resolves ±5.0

DIRECTIONAL

pts+reb

6.7

10.3

−3.6

t −1.51 · resolves ±4.7

DIRECTIONAL

pts+ast

5.4

8.7

−3.2

t −1.51 · resolves ±4.2

DIRECTIONAL

reb+ast

3.4

4.3

−0.9

t −1.11 · resolves ±1.6

DIRECTIONAL

steals+blocks

0.7

−0.1

t −0.27 · resolves ±0.5

NOT MEASURABLE

Game log

all 35 · click a row for the box score

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS 6.1

2026-09-24

LVA

HOME

10.5MIN

3POINTS

3 · 2 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 31.5
USG%: 19.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -13
PRA: 8

2026-09-19

DAL

AWAY

14.1MIN

8POINTS

5 · 0 · 2-7

ABOVE

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-4
FT: 4-7
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 39.7
USG%: 34.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -6
PRA: 13

2026-08-27

WAS

HOME

11.8MIN

0POINTS

1 · 2 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 11.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 3

2026-08-25

WAS

HOME

23.0MIN

7POINTS

3 · 3 · 0-0

ABOVE

FG: 0-0
3PT: 0-0
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 99.4
USG%: 7.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -13
PRA: 13

2026-08-22

ATL

HOME

13.3MIN

5POINTS

2 · 1 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 1-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 133.0
USG%: 13.1
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -5
PRA: 8

2026-08-16

POR

HOME

9.4MIN

4POINTS

1 · 0 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 34.7
USG%: 32.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 5

2026-08-11

LAS

AWAY

19.8MIN

7POINTS

4 · 1 · 1-4

ABOVE

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-3
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 60.8
USG%: 18.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -12
PRA: 12

2026-08-09

WAS

AWAY

9.0MIN

1POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-0

BELOW

FG: 0-0
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 56.8
USG%: 14.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 3

2026-08-07

CON

AWAY

11.9MIN

0POINTS

1 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 3.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 1

2026-08-05

ATL

AWAY

12.8MIN

3POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 38.7
USG%: 14.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -8
PRA: 5

2026-08-03

CHI

AWAY

22.4MIN

11POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 2-4
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 85.4
USG%: 12.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +11
PRA: 14

2026-08-01

NYL

HOME

21.2MIN

5POINTS

1 · 2 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-1
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 53.9
USG%: 10.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -3
PRA: 8

2026-07-29

GSV

HOME

22.8MIN

10POINTS

7 · 1 · 1-2

ABOVE

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-1
FT: 8-10
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 78.1
USG%: 15.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +17
PRA: 18

2026-07-22

LAS

AWAY

12.8MIN

3POINTS

3 · 1 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 37.5
USG%: 20.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: +5
PRA: 7

2026-07-19

CON

HOME

14.4MIN

5POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-4
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 33.6
USG%: 36.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 7

2026-07-17

CON

HOME

18.3MIN

13POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-3

ABOVE

FG: 2-3
3PT: 1-1
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 99.7
USG%: 21.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -11
PRA: 15

2026-07-13

MIN

AWAY

17.5MIN

4POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 42.0
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -2
PRA: 6

2026-07-11

LVA

AWAY

30.7MIN

5POINTS

7 · 1 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 39.6
USG%: 12.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -33
PRA: 13

2026-07-09

IND

HOME

30.4MIN

10POINTS

2 · 3 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 59.2
USG%: 15.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 15

2026-07-07

CHI

HOME

27.6MIN

9POINTS

6 · 0 · 3-6

ABOVE

FG: 3-6
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 18.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 15

2026-07-02

SEA

HOME

27.4MIN

18POINTS

2 · 3 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 3-7
FT: 5-7
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 63.9
USG%: 25.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +16
PRA: 23

2026-06-27

TOR

AWAY

27.1MIN

20POINTS

6 · 2 · 7-14

ABOVE

FG: 7-14
3PT: 2-5
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 63.5
USG%: 31.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +8
PRA: 28

2026-06-24

IND

AWAY

28.1MIN

19POINTS

3 · 2 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 1-4
FT: 8-9
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 79.4
USG%: 20.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +9
PRA: 24

2026-06-22

IND

AWAY

20.2MIN

9POINTS

3 · 3 · 1-5

ABOVE

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-4
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 55.7
USG%: 22.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 15

2026-06-20

SEA

HOME

21.9MIN

18POINTS

10 · 0 · 4-7

ABOVE

FG: 4-7
3PT: 2-4
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 1/9
TS%: 85.6
USG%: 25.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +22
PRA: 28

2026-06-17

LVA

HOME

11.3MIN

0POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 17.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +3
PRA: 2

2026-06-05

POR

AWAY

3.7MIN

2POINTS

2 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/0
TS%: 53.2
USG%: 50.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 4

2026-06-03

SEA

AWAY

3.5MIN

1POINTS

3 · 1 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 3/0
TS%: 17.4
USG%: 37.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +2
PRA: 5

2026-06-01

MIN

HOME

11.5MIN

0POINTS

1 · 4 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 11.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 5

2026-05-29

NYL

AWAY

3.0MIN

0POINTS

1 · 1 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 33.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +3
PRA: 2

2026-05-27

NYL

AWAY

9.1MIN

3POINTS

0 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 19.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -7
PRA: 3

2026-05-21

LAS

HOME

6.0MIN

0POINTS

2 · 0 · 0-2

BELOW

FG: 0-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 14.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 2

2026-05-19

TOR

HOME

12.0MIN

3POINTS

3 · 1 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-6
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 41.2
USG%: 13.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -1
PRA: 7

2026-05-15

CHI

HOME

12.2MIN

8POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-6

ABOVE

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 54.6
USG%: 28.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -8
PRA: 11

2026-05-12

MIN

HOME

17.4MIN

6POINTS

4 · 3 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 14.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 13

every game on file — nothing hidden