Every eligible priced signal from the same CORE formula that feeds Tonight's Board, normalized to a flat 1-unit benchmark. The Board posts this same population, capped per game, with the model stake shown where the model certifies one.
CORE FORMULA BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization
One book. One source of truth.
The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.
EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days
THE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark
Wins and losses, row by row.
THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · all time
Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.
Slip size
W–L–void
Claimed hit
Realized hit
Units
ROI
3-leg
3–8–0
23%
27%
+4.80u
+44%
3-leg (disciplined)
3–5–0
23%
38%
+8.11u
+101%
2-leg
5–6–0
38%
45%
+3.11u
+28%
2-leg (disciplined)
5–3–0
37%
63%
+7.12u
+89%
Date
Legs
Odds
Claimed
EV
Result
11-02
Miles McBride U1.5 thr + Norman Powell U3.5 reb + Jalen Brunson U3.5 reb
+336
26%
+14%
LOSS
11-02
Norman Powell U3.5 reb + Scoot Henderson U3.5 ass + De'Aaron Fox O5.5 ass
Draymond Green U5.5 reb + Stephen Curry U3.5 reb + Cooper Flagg O5.5 reb
+425
22%
+17%
WIN
10-26
Cooper Flagg O5.5 reb + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 ass + Jaden McDaniels O4.5 reb
+463
20%
+15%
WIN
10-26
Draymond Green U5.5 reb + Stephen Curry U3.5 reb
+194
37%
+10%
WIN
10-26
Cooper Flagg O5.5 reb + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 ass
+207
35%
+9%
WIN
10-25
Jalen Williams U4.5 ass + LeBron James U7.5 ass + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O3.5 reb
+516
19%
+15%
LOSS
10-25
Jalen Williams U1.5 thr + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr + Derrick Jones U1.5 thr
+331
26%
+13%
LOSS
10-25
Jalen Williams U4.5 ass + LeBron James U7.5 ass
+239
33%
+12%
LOSS
10-25
Jalen Williams U1.5 thr + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr
+152
43%
+9%
LOSS
10-24
Caleb Wilson O5.5 reb + Dennis Schroder U6.5 ass + Devin Booker O3.5 reb
+435
21%
+13%
WIN
10-24
Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 thr + Jarrett Allen U8.5 reb + Dillon Brooks O1.5 thr
+405
24%
+22%
LOSS
10-24
Caleb Wilson O5.5 reb + Dennis Schroder U6.5 ass
+199
36%
+9%
WIN
10-24
Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 thr + Julius Randle O6.5 reb
+194
37%
+8%
LOSS
10-23
Paul George O2.5 ass + Ausar Thompson O3.5 ass + Josh Hart O3.5 ass
+384
24%
+16%
LOSS
10-23
Damian Lillard U3.5 thr + Dylan Harper O4.5 reb + Ja Morant O5.5 ass
+438
21%
+15%
PENDING
10-23
Paul George O2.5 ass + Ausar Thompson O3.5 ass
+181
38%
+8%
LOSS
10-23
Damian Lillard U3.5 thr + Dylan Harper O4.5 reb
+199
37%
+10%
PENDING
10-22
Ajay Mitchell U11.5 poi + Jared McCain O9.5 poi + Jarrett Allen U13.5 poi
+537
19%
+20%
LOSS
10-22
Ajay Mitchell U11.5 poi + Jared McCain O9.5 poi
+228
33%
+9%
LOSS
NBA · 96 settled signals in the served CORE benchmark
CORE-signal benchmark P&L · flat 1u · JUN 5–NOV 2
+5.4u
JUN 5OCT 25OCT 28NOV 2
THE SHEET · served CORE benchmark · 96 settled signals
0–0
Record
+0.0u
Flat-1u P&L
0.0%
ROI
0.0¢
Avg CLV
Flat-1u formula benchmark—the same population the Board posts, capped per game. Same population everywhere on this page: NBA disciplined at 1.70+ · settled through Nov 2, 2026. Lower-paying prices and unpriced rows are excluded.
Market
Result
Grade
96 signals shown
Date
Lg
Pick
Mkt
Bet / Close
Grade
Result
Re-grade
Units
Running total
NOV 2
NBA
Isaiah Jackson Under 7.5 REB
Prop
−122 / —
B
L
? → C
−1.00
+5.44
NOV 2
NBA
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 31.5 PTS
Prop
−120 / —
C
W
? → A
+0.83
+6.44
NOV 2
NBA
Damian Lillard Under 20.5 PTS
Prop
+105 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.05
+5.61
NOV 2
NBA
Donovan Clingan Under 10.5 REB
Prop
−121 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
+4.56
NOV 2
NBA
Scoot Henderson Under 3.5 AST
Prop
−135 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.74
+5.56
NOV 2
NBA
De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 AST
Prop
−125 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
+4.82
NOV 2
NBA
Alperen Sengun Over 17.5 PTS
Prop
+102 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+1.02
+5.82
NOV 2
NBA
Saddiq Bey Over 1.5 3PM
Prop
+111 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+1.11
+4.80
NOV 2
NBA
Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 3PM
Prop
−138 / —
A
W
? → A+
+0.72
+3.69
NOV 2
NBA
Cedric Coward Over 1.5 3PM
Prop
+102 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+1.02
+2.96
NOV 2
NBA
LeBron James Over 17.5 PTS
Prop
+111 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+1.94
NOV 2
NBA
Tre Jones Over 8.5 PTS
Prop
+100 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+2.94
NOV 2
NBA
Franz Wagner Under 23.5 PTS
Prop
+110 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+3.94
NOV 2
NBA
C.J. McCollum Under 3.5 AST
Prop
+128 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+4.94
NOV 2
NBA
Onyeka Okongwu Under 8.5 REB
Prop
+122 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+5.94
NOV 2
NBA
Dyson Daniels Under 6.5 REB
Prop
−102 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+6.94
NOV 2
NBA
Dyson Daniels Under 5.5 AST
Prop
+114 / —
B
W
? → A+
+1.14
+7.94
NOV 2
NBA
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 3.5 AST
Prop
+130 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+6.80
NOV 2
NBA
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 3.5 REB
Prop
−115 / —
B
L
? → C
−1.00
+7.80
NOV 2
NBA
Ausar Thompson Under 10.5 PTS
Prop
−118 / —
C
L
? → D
−1.00
+8.80
NOV 2
NBA
Dennis Schroder Over 4.5 AST
Prop
−125 / —
B
V
excused
0.00
+9.80
NOV 2
NBA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 PTS
Prop
+140 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+9.80
NOV 1
NBA
Keaton Wagler Over 3.5 REB
Prop
−138 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.72
+10.80
NOV 1
NBA
Darius Garland Under 23.5 PTS
Prop
−115 / —
C
W
? → A+
+0.87
+10.08
NOV 1
NBA
Nolan Traore Under 4.5 AST
Prop
−104 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+9.21
NOV 1
NBA
Andrew Nembhard Under 3.5 REB
Prop
−135 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.74
+10.21
NOV 1
NBA
Tristan da Silva Under 3.5 REB
Prop
+130 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+9.47
OCT 31
NBA
Marcus Smart Over 8.5 PTS
Prop
−106 / —
C
W
? → A+
+0.94
+10.47
OCT 31
NBA
Jabari Smith Jr Over 15.5 PTS
Prop
+113 / —
<52%
V
excused
0.00
+9.53
OCT 31
NBA
Ayo Dosunmu Under 14.5 PTS
Prop
+111 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+9.53
OCT 31
NBA
Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 AST
Prop
−127 / —
B
V
excused
0.00
+10.53
OCT 31
NBA
Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 REB
Prop
−122 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.82
+10.53
OCT 31
NBA
Adem Bona Under 6.5 PTS
Prop
+100 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+1.00
+9.71
OCT 29
NBA
Luguentz Dort Under 1.5 3PM
Prop
−135 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.74
+8.71
OCT 28
NBA
Josh Hart Under 11.5 PTS
Prop
+101 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+1.01
+7.96
OCT 28
NBA
Kobe Sanders Under 11.5 PTS
Prop
−112 / —
C
W
? → A
+0.89
+6.95
OCT 28
NBA
Austin Reaves Under 4.5 REB
Prop
−130 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
+6.06
OCT 28
NBA
Austin Reaves Under 7.5 AST
Prop
−125 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.80
+7.06
OCT 28
NBA
Isaiah Jackson Under 7.5 REB
Prop
−120 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.83
+6.26
OCT 28
NBA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 4.5 REB
Prop
−120 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
+5.43
OCT 28
NBA
Ace Bailey Over 12.5 PTS
Prop
−117 / —
C
W
? → A+
+0.85
+6.43
OCT 28
NBA
Dylan Harper Under 4.5 AST
Prop
−122 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
+5.57
OCT 28
NBA
Stephon Castle Under 6.5 AST
Prop
−115 / —
B
L
? → C
−1.00
+6.57
OCT 28
NBA
Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 AST
Prop
−132 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.76
+7.57
OCT 28
NBA
Aaron Gordon Under 15.5 PTS
Prop
+110 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.10
+6.82
OCT 28
NBA
Jamal Murray Over 4.5 REB
Prop
+117 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+5.72
OCT 28
NBA
Brandin Podziemski Over 16.5 PTS
Prop
+122 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+6.72
OCT 28
NBA
Desmond Bane Under 3.5 AST
Prop
−108 / —
C
L
? → C
−1.00
+7.72
OCT 28
NBA
R.J. Barrett Over 20.5 PTS
Prop
−115 / —
C
W
? → A
+0.87
+8.72
OCT 28
NBA
Aaron Wiggins Over 1.5 3PM
Prop
−138 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.72
+7.85
OCT 27
NBA
Ja Morant Over 6.5 AST
Prop
+150 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+7.12
OCT 27
NBA
Donovan Clingan Under 10.5 REB
Prop
−141 / —
A
W
? → A
+0.71
+8.12
OCT 27
NBA
Josh Hart Over 7.5 REB
Prop
+122 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+7.41
OCT 27
NBA
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 3PM
Prop
−127 / —
B
L
? → C
−1.00
+8.41
OCT 27
NBA
Dylan Harper Over 4.5 REB
Prop
−108 / —
C
W
? → A+
+0.93
+9.41
OCT 27
NBA
Keldon Johnson Under 10.5 PTS
Prop
+100 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+8.49
OCT 27
NBA
Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 REB
Prop
−141 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.71
+9.49
OCT 26
NBA
Draymond Green Over 5.5 AST
Prop
−115 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.87
+8.78
OCT 26
NBA
Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTS
Prop
−104 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+7.91
OCT 26
NBA
Ace Bailey Over 11.5 PTS
Prop
−104 / —
C
W
? → A+
+0.96
+8.91
OCT 26
NBA
Amen Thompson Over 16.5 PTS
Prop
−106 / —
C
L
? → C
−1.00
+7.95
OCT 26
NBA
Amen Thompson Over 4.5 AST
Prop
+138 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+8.95
OCT 26
NBA
Kevin Durant Over 4.5 REB
Prop
−133 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.75
+9.95
OCT 26
NBA
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 3.5 AST
Prop
−133 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.75
+9.19
OCT 26
NBA
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 11.5 REB
Prop
−118 / —
C
L
? → D
−1.00
+8.44
OCT 26
NBA
Davion Mitchell Over 10.5 PTS
Prop
−119 / —
C
W
? → A+
+0.84
+9.44
OCT 26
NBA
Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 REB
Prop
−133 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.75
+8.60
OCT 26
NBA
Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 PTS
Prop
+104 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.04
+7.85
OCT 26
NBA
Josh Giddey Over 7.5 AST
Prop
−111 / —
C
L
? → D
−1.00
+6.81
OCT 26
NBA
Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 REB
Prop
−120 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.83
+7.81
OCT 25
NBA
Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 3PM
Prop
−112 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+0.89
+6.98
OCT 25
NBA
Cade Cunningham Under 5.5 REB
Prop
+100 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+6.08
OCT 25
NBA
LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 3PM
Prop
+125 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.25
+7.08
OCT 25
NBA
Scottie Barnes Over 19.5 PTS
Prop
+113 / —
<52%
L
? → D
−1.00
+5.83
OCT 25
NBA
R.J. Barrett Over 19.5 PTS
Prop
−108 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+0.93
+6.83
OCT 25
NBA
Kawhi Leonard Over 5.5 REB
Prop
−108 / —
C
V
excused
0.00
+5.91
OCT 25
NBA
Tristan da Silva Under 4.5 REB
Prop
−135 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.74
+5.91
OCT 25
NBA
Franz Wagner Under 21.5 PTS
Prop
+115 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+5.17
OCT 25
NBA
Derrick Jones Under 1.5 3PM
Prop
−141 / —
A
V
excused
0.00
+6.17
OCT 25
NBA
Isaiah Jackson Under 6.5 REB
Prop
−111 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.90
+6.17
OCT 25
NBA
Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTS
Prop
+105 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.05
+5.27
OCT 24
NBA
Dillon Brooks Over 1.5 3PM
Prop
−140 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
+4.22
OCT 24
NBA
Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 AST
Prop
−103 / —
C
W
? → A
+0.97
+5.22
OCT 24
NBA
Amen Thompson Over 16.5 PTS
Prop
−105 / —
C
W
? → A
+0.95
+4.25
OCT 24
NBA
Victor Wembanyama Under 11.5 REB
Prop
+102 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+1.02
+3.29
OCT 24
NBA
Jarrett Allen Under 8.5 REB
Prop
−122 / —
B
W
? → A
+0.82
+2.27
OCT 24
NBA
Julius Randle Over 6.5 REB
Prop
−122 / —
B
L
? → C
−1.00
+1.45
OCT 24
NBA
Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 AST
Prop
+116 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.16
+2.45
OCT 23
NBA
Ja Morant Over 5.5 AST
Prop
−125 / —
B
W
? → A+
+0.80
+1.29
OCT 23
NBA
Donovan Clingan Under 11.5 REB
Prop
−122 / —
C
W
? → A
+0.82
+0.49
OCT 23
NBA
Jaren Jackson Jr Over 17.5 PTS
Prop
−107 / —
<52%
W
? → A+
+0.93
−0.33
OCT 23
NBA
Zaccharie Risacher Under 9.5 PTS
Prop
−134 / —
B
L
? → C
−1.00
−1.26
OCT 23
NBA
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 3PM
Prop
−125 / —
B
L
? → D
−1.00
−0.26
OCT 23
NBA
Jalen Johnson Under 6.5 AST
Prop
+120 / —
<52%
L
? → C
−1.00
+0.74
OCT 22
NBA
LeBron James Over 15.5 PTS
Prop
+101 / —
<52%
W
? → A
+1.01
+1.74
JUN 5
NBA
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 AST
Prop
−137 / −134
—
W
? → A
+0.73
+0.73
▲ = beat the closing line. A → F is our own honest re-grade after the game — process misses included, nothing buried. The public sheet shows all 96 signals in the served CORE benchmark. Sign in only if you want to export the current filter as CSV.
Zaccharie Risacher Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5no clean explanation
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 3PM3 vs 1.5no clean explanation
ATL @ CHA0–1−1.00u
Jalen Johnson Under 6.5 AST8 vs 6.5no clean explanation
NOP @ UTA1–0+0.93u
POR @ SAC2–0+1.62u
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.
+0.72u
DEN @ NOP2–1+0.86u
Jamal Murray Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5no clean explanation
NYK @ CHI1–0+1.01u
LAL @ LAC3–1+1.53u
Austin Reaves Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5no clean explanation
MIN @ CLE1–0+0.83u
GSW @ DEN1–0+0.87u
HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA
The same 96 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: disciplined · prices 1.70+ · through Nov 2, 2026. 1 older entries have no probability band and are excluded from the cards.
A
2–0
building · 2 graded (too few to read)
≥60% calibrated hit probability
B
20–13
+3.0u · +8.9% ROI · 61% hit · n=33 · 2 void
≥55% calibrated hit probability
C
12–5
building · 17 graded (too few to read)
≥52% calibrated hit probability · thin lean
Below 52%
16–22
−5.4u · −14.2% ROI · 42% hit · n=38 · 1 void
<52% calibrated hit probability · tracked, not a conviction signal
The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →