LIVE FEED UNAVAILABLE · figures withheld rather than replacedCORE BENCHMARK · loading verified results

The Ledger.

Every eligible priced signal from the same CORE formula that feeds Tonight's Board, normalized to a flat 1-unit benchmark. The Board posts this same population, capped per game, with the model stake shown where the model certifies one.

CORE FORMULA BENCHMARK · cumulative units, flat-1u normalization

One book.
One source of truth.

The line, result and units all come from one served formula and one price floor. This measures model signal quality consistently; it is not a claim that every row was a recommended wager.

P&L unavailableThe live feed did not answer, so no synthetic curve is rendered.

HIT-LIKELIHOOD BANDS · price-derived, not an edge score · NBA

The same 8140 settled signals as the flat-1u CORE benchmark, grouped by calibrated probability of hitting at the posted price. A higher band means more likely to hit, not automatically more profitable—read the ROI beside it. Source: consensus_devig · prices 1.70+. Every settled entry is represented below.

A+

25–7

+13.2u · +41.1% ROI · 78% hit · n=32 · 8 void

≥65% calibrated hit probability (price-derived)

191–123

+31.0u · +9.9% ROI · 61% hit · n=314 · 34 void

≥60% calibrated hit probability

541–488

−7.0u · −0.7% ROI · 53% hit · n=1029 · 103 void

≥55% calibrated hit probability

566–568

+61.3u · +5.4% ROI · 50% hit · n=1134 · 121 void

≥52% calibrated hit probability · thin lean

Below 52%

1934–2904

−102.9u · −2.1% ROI · 40% hit · n=4838 · 527 void

<52% calibrated hit probability · tracked, not a conviction signal

The former agent-conviction experiment is archived through Jul 18 and is no longer mixed into current results. View its historical record →

EXPERIMENT WINDOW · applies only to the panel, model arms, and slips below · the panel display is capped at 14 days

THE SLIPS · 2/3-leg cross-game parlays · graded in public · all time

Every night the builder composes small cross-game parlays from +EV legs only — same-game pairs get a probability haircut, and any slip that isn't +EV after the haircut is never emitted, so many nights produce nothing. The claim to audit: does the realized hit rate match the claimed joint probability? At plus prices a losing-looking record profits — a 2-leg slip near +240 breaks even at 29%.

Slip size	W–L–void	Claimed hit	Realized hit	Units	ROI
3-leg	4–14–0	24%	22%	+2.26u	+13%
2-leg	8–10–0	40%	44%	+3.76u	+21%
3-leg (disciplined)	4–11–0	23%	27%	+6.09u	+41%
2-leg (disciplined)	7–8–0	38%	47%	+5.62u	+37%

Date	Legs	Odds	Claimed	EV	Result
11-11	De'Aaron Fox U1.5 thr + Kyshawn George U2.5 thr + Trae Young U2.5 thr	+328	27%	+15%	PENDING
11-11	De'Aaron Fox U1.5 thr + Kyshawn George U2.5 thr	+154	43%	+11%	PENDING
11-10	Ajay Mitchell U1.5 thr + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U2.5 thr + Darryn Peterson O1.5 thr	+346	28%	+24%	WIN
11-10	LeBron James U1.5 thr + OG Anunoby U2.5 thr + Davion Mitchell O1.5 thr	+427	23%	+22%	LOSS
11-10	Ajay Mitchell U1.5 thr + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U2.5 thr	+164	43%	+14%	WIN
11-10	LeBron James U1.5 thr + OG Anunoby U2.5 thr	+201	39%	+16%	LOSS
11-09	Alex Sarr O0.5 thr + R.J. Barrett O1.5 thr + Immanuel Quickley U6.5 ass	+389	24%	+20%	LOSS
11-09	Cooper Flagg U7.5 reb + Oso Ighodaro O4.5 reb + Cedric Coward O1.5 thr	+503	20%	+20%	LOSS
11-09	Alex Sarr O0.5 thr + R.J. Barrett O1.5 thr	+158	41%	+7%	LOSS
11-09	Cooper Flagg U7.5 reb + Oso Ighodaro O4.5 reb	+232	35%	+15%	LOSS
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Bobby Portis U1.5 thr + Kyle Kuzma U1.5 thr	+317	31%	+29%	LOSS
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + LeBron James U1.5 thr + Joel Embiid U22.5 poi	+372	26%	+24%	LOSS
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Bobby Portis U1.5 thr	+159	47%	+21%	WIN
11-08	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Ausar Thompson O6.5 reb	+195	40%	+19%	WIN
11-07	Draymond Green U6.5 ass + Miles Bridges O1.5 thr + Desmond Bane O2.5 thr	+436	23%	+24%	LOSS
11-07	Desmond Bane O2.5 thr + Jamal Murray U6.5 ass + Dillon Brooks O1.5 thr	+452	21%	+15%	LOSS
11-07	Draymond Green U6.5 ass + Miles Bridges O1.5 thr	+213	38%	+18%	LOSS
11-07	Desmond Bane O2.5 thr + Jamal Murray U6.5 ass	+204	36%	+11%	LOSS
11-06	LeBron James U1.5 thr + Max Christie U3.5 reb + R.J. Barrett O1.5 thr	+294	29%	+15%	LOSS
11-06	Max Christie U3.5 reb + Brandon Miller U3.5 ass + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U6.5 ass	+398	25%	+26%	WIN
11-06	LeBron James U1.5 thr + Max Christie U3.5 reb	+142	46%	+10%	WIN
11-06	Max Christie U3.5 reb + Brayden Burries U11.5 poi	+193	38%	+10%	LOSS
11-05	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Brandin Podziemski O3.5 ass + Anthony Black U4.5 ass	+360	25%	+14%	LOSS
11-05	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Klay Thompson U2.5 reb + Brandin Podziemski U5.5 reb	+380	25%	+19%	LOSS
11-05	Yaxel Lendeborg U7.5 reb + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr	+239	33%	+10%	LOSS
11-05	Bam Adebayo U1.5 thr + Klay Thompson U2.5 reb	+154	43%	+10%	WIN
11-04	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U2.5 thr + OG Anunoby U2.5 thr + Domantas Sabonis U6.5 ass	+368	25%	+16%	LOSS
11-04	Cameron Boozer O1.5 thr + Derrick White U5.5 ass + Jaden McDaniels O4.5 reb	+487	22%	+31%	LOSS
11-04	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U2.5 thr + OG Anunoby U2.5 thr	+170	41%	+11%	LOSS
11-04	Cameron Boozer O1.5 thr + Derrick White U5.5 ass	+223	39%	+25%	LOSS
11-02	Miles McBride U1.5 thr + Norman Powell U3.5 reb + Jalen Brunson U3.5 reb	+336	26%	+14%	LOSS
11-02	Norman Powell U3.5 reb + Scoot Henderson U3.5 ass + De'Aaron Fox O5.5 ass	+409	22%	+14%	LOSS
11-02	Miles McBride U1.5 thr + Norman Powell U3.5 reb	+162	42%	+9%	LOSS
11-02	Norman Powell U3.5 reb + Scoot Henderson U3.5 ass	+183	39%	+10%	WIN
11-01	Jase Richardson O0.5 thr + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr + Aaron Nesmith U3.5 reb	+311	27%	+13%	LOSS
11-01	Desmond Bane O2.5 thr + Andrew Nembhard U3.5 reb + Darius Garland U23.5 poi	+453	21%	+14%	WIN
11-01	Jase Richardson O0.5 thr + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr	+149	44%	+9%	LOSS
11-01	Desmond Bane O2.5 thr + Darius Garland U23.5 poi	+218	34%	+10%	WIN
10-31	Brandon Miller U3.5 ass + Jeremiah Fears O3.5 reb + Dejounte Murray O5.5 ass	+429	22%	+18%	LOSS
10-31	Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 thr + Jrue Holiday U2.5 thr + Brandon Miller U3.5 ass	+313	27%	+11%	LOSS
10-31	Brandon Miller U3.5 ass + Dejounte Murray O5.5 ass	+190	37%	+8%	LOSS
10-31	Jabari Smith Jr U2.5 thr + Jrue Holiday U2.5 thr	+154	42%	+7%	WIN
10-29	Evan Mobley U1.5 thr + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 ass + Zach Edey U8.5 poi	+401	24%	+19%	LOSS
10-29	Evan Mobley U1.5 thr + Darius Acuff Jr. O4.5 ass	+175	40%	+10%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 thr + Zion Williamson U5.5 reb + Dejounte Murray U6.5 ass	+420	22%	+15%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 thr + Max Christie O1.5 thr + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U4.5 reb	+411	22%	+14%	LOSS
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 thr + R.J. Barrett O20.5 poi	+215	35%	+12%	WIN
10-28	Aaron Nesmith O1.5 thr + Zion Williamson U5.5 reb	+189	38%	+10%	WIN
10-27	Landry Shamet U1.5 thr + Deni Avdija O4.5 ass + Austin Reaves O5.5 ass	+454	21%	+16%	LOSS
10-27	Cade Cunningham O1.5 thr + Donovan Clingan U10.5 reb + Mitchell Robinson U7.5 reb	+395	23%	+14%	WIN
10-27	Landry Shamet U1.5 thr + Deni Avdija O4.5 ass	+213	35%	+9%	LOSS
10-27	Cade Cunningham O1.5 thr + Donovan Clingan U10.5 reb	+190	38%	+10%	WIN
10-26	Draymond Green U5.5 reb + Stephen Curry U3.5 reb + Cooper Flagg O5.5 reb	+425	22%	+17%	WIN
10-26	Cooper Flagg O5.5 reb + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 ass + Jaden McDaniels O4.5 reb	+463	20%	+15%	WIN
10-26	Draymond Green U5.5 reb + Stephen Curry U3.5 reb	+194	37%	+10%	WIN
10-26	Cooper Flagg O5.5 reb + Isaiah Hartenstein U3.5 ass	+207	35%	+9%	WIN
10-25	Jalen Williams U4.5 ass + LeBron James U7.5 ass + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O3.5 reb	+516	19%	+15%	LOSS
10-25	Jalen Williams U1.5 thr + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr + Derrick Jones U1.5 thr	+331	26%	+13%	LOSS
10-25	Jalen Williams U4.5 ass + LeBron James U7.5 ass	+239	33%	+12%	LOSS
10-25	Jalen Williams U1.5 thr + Tristan da Silva U2.5 thr	+152	43%	+9%	LOSS
10-24	Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 thr + Jarrett Allen U8.5 reb + Dillon Brooks O1.5 thr	+405	24%	+22%	LOSS
10-24	Caleb Wilson O5.5 reb + Dennis Schroder U6.5 ass + Devin Booker O3.5 reb	+435	21%	+13%	WIN
10-24	Caleb Wilson O5.5 reb + Dennis Schroder U6.5 ass	+199	36%	+9%	WIN
10-24	Jabari Smith Jr O1.5 thr + Julius Randle O6.5 reb	+194	37%	+8%	LOSS
10-23	Paul George O2.5 ass + Ausar Thompson O3.5 ass + Josh Hart O3.5 ass	+384	24%	+16%	LOSS
10-23	Damian Lillard U3.5 thr + Dylan Harper O4.5 reb + Ja Morant O5.5 ass	+438	21%	+15%	PENDING
10-23	Paul George O2.5 ass + Ausar Thompson O3.5 ass	+181	38%	+8%	LOSS
10-23	Damian Lillard U3.5 thr + Dylan Harper O4.5 reb	+199	37%	+10%	PENDING
10-22	Ajay Mitchell U11.5 poi + Jared McCain O9.5 poi + Jarrett Allen U13.5 poi	+537	19%	+20%	LOSS
10-22	Ajay Mitchell U11.5 poi + Jared McCain O9.5 poi	+228	33%	+9%	LOSS

THE SHEET · live feed unavailableTHE SHEET · loading the served CORE benchmark

Wins and losses, row by row.

Pick-level ledger unavailableNo demo rows are being substituted for the live CORE benchmark.

The Ledger.

One book.One source of truth.

Wins and losses, row by row.

One book.
One source of truth.