NBA · WNBA · season-long player prop tape

Market Memory.

What the prop market changed its mind about—consensus lines beside official results, with the biggest pivots and their timestamped context candidates surfaced first.

How to read it

Orange is the market's close. Green is what the player actually did. A context flag is a lead to investigate, never proof that one event caused the move.

2025-26
Coverage window
545
Players
1,310
Games
283,740
Line observations

Coverage note: actual join coverage incomplete · candidate context coverage incomplete · pregame coverage incomplete

Largest verified pivots · NBA · 2025-26 · Points

The market moved. The tape remembers.

Season pivot compares the latest eligible consensus close with the median of earlier eligible game closes. Each chart keeps within-game open/close history separate from that cross-game trend.

01

nba · points

Shaedon Sharpe

52 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline21.5
Latest close8.5
Season pivot-13.0
Latest actual5
Jan 27Apr 28

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

02

nba · points

Jeremiah Fears

74 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline12.5
Latest close24.5
Season pivot+12.0
Latest actual36
Mar 18Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

03

nba · points

Cody Williams

35 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9.3
Latest close20.5
Season pivot+11.3
Latest actual14
Mar 18Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

04

nba · points

Brice Sensabaugh

66 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline13.5
Latest close23.5
Season pivot+10.0
Latest actual15
Mar 13Apr 12

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

05

nba · points

Jaden Hardy

16 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline11.5
Latest close20.5
Season pivot+9.0
Latest actual8
Mar 5Apr 5

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

06

nba · points

Isaiah Collier

55 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline8.5
Latest close16.5
Season pivot+8.0
Latest actual14
Feb 23Mar 18

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

07

nba · points

Kenrich Williams

18 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline8.5
Latest close16.5
Season pivot+8.0
Latest actual13
Feb 1Apr 12

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

08

nba · points

Kyle Filipowski

68 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline11.5
Latest close19.5
Season pivot+8.0
Latest actual9
Mar 13Apr 7

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

09

nba · points

Nique Clifford

53 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline8.5
Latest close16.5
Season pivot+8.0
Latest actual20
Mar 14Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

10

nba · points

Trae Young

13 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline22.5
Latest close14.5
Season pivot-8.0
Latest actual21
Oct 27Mar 16

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

11

nba · points

Jaylon Tyson

63 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline11.3
Latest close3.5
Season pivot-7.8
Latest actual0
Apr 20May 13

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

12

nba · points

Harrison Barnes

69 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9.5
Latest close2
Season pivot-7.5
Latest actual0
Mar 30Jun 5

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

13

nba · points

Rob Dillingham

19 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline7
Latest close14.5
Season pivot+7.5
Latest actual5
Mar 5Apr 9

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

14

nba · points

Grayson Allen

55 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline15.5
Latest close8.5
Season pivot-7.0
Latest actual12
Mar 30Apr 27

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

15

nba · points

Isaiah Joe

60 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline10.5
Latest close3.5
Season pivot-7.0
Latest actual3
Apr 7May 22

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

16

nba · points

Jalen Wilson

13 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline7.5
Latest close14.5
Season pivot+7.0
Latest actual13
Nov 28Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

17

nba · points

Keaton Wallace

3 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline13.5
Latest close6.5
Season pivot-7.0
Latest actual9
Nov 8Dec 29

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

18

nba · points

Kevin Huerter

55 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline10.5
Latest close3.5
Season pivot-7.0
Latest actual0
Mar 26May 13

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

19

nba · points

Lauri Markkanen

43 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline25.5
Latest close18.5
Season pivot-7.0
Latest actual29
Jan 20Feb 23

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

20

nba · points

Precious Achiuwa

65 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline7.5
Latest close14.5
Season pivot+7.0
Latest actual5
Mar 22Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

21

nba · points

Quentin Grimes

80 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline13.5
Latest close6.5
Season pivot-7.0
Latest actual6
Apr 19May 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

22

nba · points

Thomas Bryant

12 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline6.5
Latest close13.5
Season pivot+7.0
Latest actual14
Dec 19Apr 5

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

23

nba · points

Will Riley

37 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline12.5
Latest close19.5
Season pivot+7.0
Latest actual16
Mar 22Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

24

nba · points

Jordan Clarkson

63 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9
Latest close2.5
Season pivot-6.5
Latest actual2
Apr 25Jun 13

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

25

nba · points

Miles McBride

57 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9
Latest close2.5
Season pivot-6.5
Latest actual0
May 6Jun 13

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

26

nba · points

Ace Bailey

69 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline13.5
Latest close19.5
Season pivot+6.0
Latest actual15
Mar 21Apr 12

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

27

nba · points

Ben Saraf

23 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline8.5
Latest close14.5
Season pivot+6.0
Latest actual15
Mar 20Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

28

nba · points

Cooper Flagg

62 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline19.5
Latest close25.5
Season pivot+6.0
Latest actual33
Mar 21Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

29

nba · points

Dominick Barlow

29 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9.5
Latest close3.5
Season pivot-6.0
Latest actual4
Mar 21Apr 19

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

30

nba · points

Drake Powell

36 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline7.5
Latest close13.5
Season pivot+6.0
Latest actual2
Mar 18Apr 9

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

31

nba · points

Jalen Duren

81 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline17.5
Latest close11.5
Season pivot-6.0
Latest actual7
Apr 29May 17

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

32

nba · points

Jalen Pickett

12 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9.5
Latest close3.5
Season pivot-6.0
Latest actual7
Jan 2Feb 1

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

33

nba · points

Norman Powell

58 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline22.5
Latest close16.5
Season pivot-6.0
Latest actual7
Mar 14Apr 9

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

34

nba · points

Tre Jones

60 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline11.5
Latest close17.5
Season pivot+6.0
Latest actual23
Mar 19Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

35

nba · points

Micah Potter

5 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9
Latest close14.5
Season pivot+5.5
Latest actual13
Jan 4Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

36

nba · points

Bennedict Mathurin

47 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline18.5
Latest close13.5
Season pivot-5.0
Latest actual0
Mar 16Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

37

nba · points

Collin Sexton

59 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline14.5
Latest close19.5
Season pivot+5.0
Latest actual12
Mar 19Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

38

nba · points

Gary Payton II

39 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline6.5
Latest close11.5
Season pivot+5.0
Latest actual12
Mar 16Apr 7

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

39

nba · points

Julius Randle

85 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline21.5
Latest close16.5
Season pivot-5.0
Latest actual3
Apr 20May 15

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

40

nba · points

Keldon Johnson

90 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline11.5
Latest close6.5
Season pivot-5.0
Latest actual7
May 12Jun 13

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

41

nba · points

Luke Kornet

66 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline6.5
Latest close1.5
Season pivot-5.0
Latest actual0
May 12Jun 13

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

42

nba · points

Micah Peavy

12 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline6.5
Latest close11.5
Season pivot+5.0
Latest actual2
Dec 2Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

43

nba · points

Marvin Bagley III

47 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9.5
Latest close14
Season pivot+4.5
Latest actual2
Mar 12Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

44

nba · points

Stephen Curry

43 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline27.5
Latest close23
Season pivot-4.5
Latest actual11
Jan 19Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

45

nba · points

AJ Johnson

2 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline6.5
Latest close10.5
Season pivot+4.0
Latest actual6
Jan 16Mar 1

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

46

nba · points

Alex Caruso

51 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline6.5
Latest close10.5
Season pivot+4.0
Latest actual15
Apr 22May 22

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

47

nba · points

Andre Jackson Jr

2 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline9.5
Latest close5.5
Season pivot-4.0
Latest actual7
Apr 1Apr 3

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

48

nba · points

Bam Adebayo

65 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline19.5
Latest close23.5
Season pivot+4.0
Latest actual20
Mar 23Apr 10

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

49

nba · points

Bobby Portis

61 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline11.5
Latest close15.5
Season pivot+4.0
Latest actual11
Feb 27Mar 23

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

50

nba · points

Cam Thomas

34 eligible games in this series

Prior baseline17.5
Latest close13.5
Season pivot-4.0
Latest actual7
Feb 24Mar 21

Possible context · association, not cause

No timestamped context has cleared validation for this pivot.

Public tape · evidence before explanation

Built to show its work.

Each sportsbook gets one vote in the consensus. Live and post-tip rows are excluded. Pushes and verified DNP voids stay distinct; unresolved games are left ungraded. Legacy openers and identity gaps are labeled instead of silently blended in.

Read the grading method