NBA · season-long player prop tape

Market Memory.

Tracked prop shifts are shown with the game, closing line, actual, and outcome when those fields join cleanly. Missing or ambiguous game links stay labeled.

Browse NBA game archive

How to read it

Game header identifies the team, opponent, and full date.
Prior baseline names the feed's method and the number of earlier games behind it.
Latest close is the market's adjustment.
Outcome vs close compares the recorded actual with the closing line when both are available.
Outcome exception separates early exits from normal performance.

Updated Aug 8, 2026

2024-25

Coverage window

430

Players

1,309

Games

195,003

Line observations

Coverage note: Some recorded actuals or outcomes are still joining · Some pre-tip context is unavailable · Some rows do not have verified tip-time coverage

Recent verified shifts · Dec 22–Jan 4 · NBA · 2024-25 · Points

What changed lately—and where did the actual land?

Showing up to 20 player series whose latest dated market row falls in the newest 14-day window. This is historical context; today's call still needs the current schedule, role, and line.

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#01 · Line rise

nba · points

Jonathan Kuminga

31 market games in this series

Market expectation

15.5prior baseline

21.5latest close

Median consensus close across 30 prior games

Line rose 6

Outcome vs closing line

13 points · UNDER by 8.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Jonathan Kuminga recorded 13 points against a 21.5 closing line, finishing 8.5 under. The market had raised the line 6 from the prior baseline of 15.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 5.1 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Jonathan Kuminga · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	18.5	34	OVER 15.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	16.5	34	OVER 17.5	Included
Dec 30	—	—	—	18.5	18	UNDER 0.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	18.5	20	OVER 1.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	21.5	13	UNDER 8.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#02 · Line rise

nba · points

D'Angelo Russell

30 market games in this series

Market expectation

13.5prior baseline

18.5latest close

Median consensus close across 29 prior games

Line rose 5

Outcome vs closing line

5 points · UNDER by 13.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, D'Angelo Russell recorded 5 points against a 18.5 closing line, finishing 13.5 under. The market had raised the line 5 from the prior baseline of 13.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 1 over · 4 under

Avg finish: 4.3 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

D'Angelo Russell · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 21	—	—	—	9.5	20	OVER 10.5	Included
Dec 23	—	—	—	12.5	5	UNDER 7.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	15.5	9	UNDER 6.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	15.5	11	UNDER 4.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	18.5	5	UNDER 13.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#03 · Line rise

nba · points

Jaren Jackson Jr

33 market games in this series

Market expectation

20.5prior baseline

25.5latest close

Median consensus close across 32 prior games

Line rose 5

Outcome vs closing line

23 points · UNDER by 2.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Jaren Jackson Jr recorded 23 points against a 25.5 closing line, finishing 2.5 under. The market had raised the line 5 from the prior baseline of 20.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 3.3 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Jaren Jackson Jr · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	20.5	33	OVER 12.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	23.5	13	UNDER 10.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	24.5	38	OVER 13.5	Included
Jan 3	—	—	—	24.5	28	OVER 3.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	25.5	23	UNDER 2.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#04 · Line rise

nba · points

Jalen Wilson

30 market games in this series

Market expectation

8.5prior baseline

12.5latest close

Median consensus close across 29 prior games

Line rose 4

Outcome vs closing line

11 points · UNDER by 1.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Jalen Wilson recorded 11 points against a 12.5 closing line, finishing 1.5 under. The market had raised the line 4 from the prior baseline of 8.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 4 over · 1 under

Avg finish: 2.3 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Jalen Wilson · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	10.5	11	OVER 0.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	8.5	16	OVER 7.5	Included
Jan 1	—	—	—	9.5	10	OVER 0.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	8.5	13	OVER 4.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	12.5	11	UNDER 1.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#05 · Line rise

nba · points

Jaylen Wells

28 market games in this series

Market expectation

10.5prior baseline

14.5latest close

Median consensus close across 27 prior games

Line rose 4

Outcome vs closing line

8 points · UNDER by 6.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Jaylen Wells recorded 8 points against a 14.5 closing line, finishing 6.5 under. The market had raised the line 4 from the prior baseline of 10.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 1 over · 4 under

Avg finish: 0.1 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Jaylen Wells · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	10.5	10	UNDER 0.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	11.5	4	UNDER 7.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	13.5	11	UNDER 2.5	Included
Jan 3	—	—	—	12.5	30	OVER 17.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	14.5	8	UNDER 6.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#06 · Line rise

nba · points

Trayce Jackson-Davis

26 market games in this series

Market expectation

8.5prior baseline

12.5latest close

Median consensus close across 25 prior games

Line rose 4

Outcome vs closing line

11 points · UNDER by 1.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Trayce Jackson-Davis recorded 11 points against a 12.5 closing line, finishing 1.5 under. The market had raised the line 4 from the prior baseline of 8.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 1.1 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Trayce Jackson-Davis · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	9.5	15	OVER 5.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	10.5	16	OVER 5.5	Included
Dec 30	—	—	—	11.5	16	OVER 4.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	11.5	3	UNDER 8.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	12.5	11	UNDER 1.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#07 · Line drop

nba · points

Brook Lopez

32 market games in this series

Market expectation

12.5prior baseline

9.5latest close

Median consensus close across 31 prior games

Line fell 3

Outcome vs closing line

5 points · UNDER by 4.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Brook Lopez recorded 5 points against a 9.5 closing line, finishing 4.5 under. The market had lowered the line 3 from the prior baseline of 12.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 2.3 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Brook Lopez · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 26	—	—	—	13.5	20	OVER 6.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	13.5	22	OVER 8.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	11.5	16	OVER 4.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	10.5	7	UNDER 3.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	9.5	5	UNDER 4.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#08 · Line rise

nba · points

De'Andre Hunter

20 market games in this series

Market expectation

15.5prior baseline

18.5latest close

Median consensus close across 19 prior games

Line rose 3

Outcome vs closing line

18 points · UNDER by 0.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, De'Andre Hunter recorded 18 points against a 18.5 closing line, finishing 0.5 under. The market had raised the line 3 from the prior baseline of 15.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 1.6 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

De'Andre Hunter · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 26	—	—	—	19.5	25	OVER 5.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	19.5	22	OVER 2.5	Included
Jan 1	—	—	—	21	20	UNDER 1	Included
Jan 3	—	—	—	17.5	3	UNDER 14.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	18.5	18	UNDER 0.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#09 · Line rise

nba · points

Deni Avdija

31 market games in this series

Market expectation

11.5prior baseline

14.5latest close

Median consensus close across 30 prior games

Line rose 3

Outcome vs closing line

19 points · OVER by 4.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Deni Avdija recorded 19 points against a 14.5 closing line, finishing 4.5 over. The market had raised the line 3 from the prior baseline of 11.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 5 over · 0 under

Avg finish: 5.7 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Deni Avdija · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 26	—	—	—	12.5	27	OVER 14.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	14.5	21	OVER 6.5	Included
Dec 30	—	—	—	16.5	17	OVER 0.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	16.5	19	OVER 2.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	14.5	19	OVER 4.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#10 · Line drop

nba · points

Donovan Clingan

11 market games in this series

Market expectation

7.5prior baseline

4.5latest close

Median consensus close across 10 prior games

Line fell 3

Outcome vs closing line

4 points · UNDER by 0.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Donovan Clingan recorded 4 points against a 4.5 closing line, finishing 0.5 under. The market had lowered the line 3 from the prior baseline of 7.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 0.8 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Donovan Clingan · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 13	—	—	—	4.5	6	OVER 1.5	Included
Dec 15	—	—	—	6.5	10	OVER 3.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	5	4	UNDER 1	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	3.5	4	OVER 0.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	4.5	4	UNDER 0.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#11 · Line rise

nba · points

Jaime Jaquez Jr

25 market games in this series

Market expectation

8.5prior baseline

11.5latest close

Median consensus close across 24 prior games

Line rose 3

Outcome vs closing line

13 points · OVER by 1.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Jaime Jaquez Jr recorded 13 points against a 11.5 closing line, finishing 1.5 over. The market had raised the line 3 from the prior baseline of 8.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 3.7 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Jaime Jaquez Jr · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 28	—	—	—	13.5	8	UNDER 5.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	12.5	2	UNDER 10.5	Included
Jan 1	—	—	—	8.5	12	OVER 3.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	7.5	0	UNDER 7.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	11.5	13	OVER 1.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#12 · Line drop

nba · points

Kevin Porter Jr.

23 market games in this series

Market expectation

11.5prior baseline

8.5latest close

Median consensus close across 22 prior games

Line fell 3

Outcome vs closing line

15 points · OVER by 6.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Kevin Porter Jr. recorded 15 points against a 8.5 closing line, finishing 6.5 over. The market had lowered the line 3 from the prior baseline of 11.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 2.2 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Kevin Porter Jr. · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 23	—	—	—	12.5	13	OVER 0.5	Included
Dec 30	—	—	—	11.5	5	UNDER 6.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	10	2	UNDER 8	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	14.5	11	UNDER 3.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	8.5	15	OVER 6.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#13 · Line drop

nba · points

Kris Murray

4 market games in this series

Small sample · only 4 market games

Market expectation

5.5prior baseline

2.5latest close

Median consensus close across 3 prior games

Line fell 3

Outcome vs closing line

4 points · OVER by 1.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Kris Murray recorded 4 points against a 2.5 closing line, finishing 1.5 over. The market had lowered the line 3 from the prior baseline of 5.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 4 representative games: 2 over · 2 under

Avg finish: right on the line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 4 settled games

Kris Murray · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Oct 30	—	—	—	5.5	5	UNDER 0.5	Included
Nov 1	—	—	—	6.5	9	OVER 2.5	Included
Nov 4	—	—	—	4.5	1	UNDER 3.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	2.5	4	OVER 1.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#14 · Line rise

nba · points

Scotty Pippen Jr

25 market games in this series

Market expectation

10.5prior baseline

13.5latest close

Median consensus close across 24 prior games

Line rose 3

Outcome vs closing line

12 points · UNDER by 1.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Scotty Pippen Jr recorded 12 points against a 13.5 closing line, finishing 1.5 under. The market had raised the line 3 from the prior baseline of 10.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 2.3 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Scotty Pippen Jr · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	9.5	13	OVER 3.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	14.5	10	UNDER 4.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	15.5	2	UNDER 13.5	Included
Jan 3	—	—	—	11.5	16	OVER 4.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	13.5	12	UNDER 1.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#15 · Line drop

nba · points

Stephon Castle

31 market games in this series

Market expectation

10.5prior baseline

7.5latest close

Median consensus close across 30 prior games

Line fell 3

Outcome vs closing line

10 points · OVER by 2.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Stephon Castle recorded 10 points against a 7.5 closing line, finishing 2.5 over. The market had lowered the line 3 from the prior baseline of 10.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 0.1 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Stephon Castle · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 25	—	—	—	7.5	6	UNDER 1.5	Included
Dec 27	—	—	—	7.5	6	UNDER 1.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	7.5	0	UNDER 7.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	7.5	15	OVER 7.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	7.5	10	OVER 2.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#16 · Line rise

nba · points

Victor Wembanyama

31 market games in this series

Market expectation

24.5prior baseline

27.5latest close

Median consensus close across 30 prior games

Line rose 3

Outcome vs closing line

20 points · UNDER by 7.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Victor Wembanyama recorded 20 points against a 27.5 closing line, finishing 7.5 under. The market had raised the line 3 from the prior baseline of 24.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 1.1 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Victor Wembanyama · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	25.5	19	UNDER 6.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	24.5	34	OVER 9.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	25.5	27	OVER 1.5	Included
Jan 3	—	—	—	26.5	35	OVER 8.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	27.5	20	UNDER 7.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#17 · Line rise

nba · points

Andrew Nembhard

23 market games in this series

Market expectation

10prior baseline

12.5latest close

Median consensus close across 22 prior games

Line rose 2.5

Outcome vs closing line

9 points · UNDER by 3.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Andrew Nembhard recorded 9 points against a 12.5 closing line, finishing 3.5 under. The market had raised the line 2.5 from the prior baseline of 10.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 1.3 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Andrew Nembhard · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 26	—	—	—	10.5	23	OVER 12.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	11.5	17	OVER 5.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	12.5	10	UNDER 2.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	11.5	6	UNDER 5.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	12.5	9	UNDER 3.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#18 · Line rise

nba · points

Devin Vassell

19 market games in this series

Market expectation

16prior baseline

18.5latest close

Median consensus close across 18 prior games

Line rose 2.5

Outcome vs closing line

19 points · OVER by 0.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Devin Vassell recorded 19 points against a 18.5 closing line, finishing 0.5 over. The market had raised the line 2.5 from the prior baseline of 16.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 1.9 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Devin Vassell · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	16.5	10	UNDER 6.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	16.5	22	OVER 5.5	Included
Dec 31	—	—	—	17.5	8	UNDER 9.5	Included
Jan 3	—	—	—	17.5	18	OVER 0.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	18.5	19	OVER 0.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#19 · Line rise

nba · points

Andrew Wiggins

32 market games in this series

Market expectation

15.5prior baseline

17.5latest close

Median consensus close across 31 prior games

Line rose 2

Outcome vs closing line

24 points · OVER by 6.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Andrew Wiggins recorded 24 points against a 17.5 closing line, finishing 6.5 over. The market had raised the line 2 from the prior baseline of 15.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 2 over · 3 under

Avg finish: 3.3 below line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Andrew Wiggins · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 27	—	—	—	15.5	5	UNDER 10.5	Included
Dec 28	—	—	—	15.5	7	UNDER 8.5	Included
Dec 30	—	—	—	15.5	11	UNDER 4.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	14.5	15	OVER 0.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	17.5	24	OVER 6.5	Included

Latest identity-matched market game · exact game behind this card

Listed team: Not reported
Opponent: Not reported
Game date: Jan 4, 2025
Player prop: points

#20 · Line drop

nba · points

Ben Sheppard

10 market games in this series

Market expectation

6.5prior baseline

4.5latest close

Median consensus close across 9 prior games

Line fell 2

Outcome vs closing line

10 points · OVER by 5.5

Game summary

On Jan 4, 2025, Ben Sheppard recorded 10 points against a 4.5 closing line, finishing 5.5 over. The market had lowered the line 2 from the prior baseline of 6.5.

Normal-exposure form vs line

Last 5 representative games: 3 over · 2 under

Avg finish: 2.3 above line

Candidate context · possible pregame factor, not proven cause

No timestamped candidate context was returned for this series.

Historical market result—not a prediction for the next game.

Game-by-game outcomes vs close · last 5 settled games

Ben Sheppard · recorded outcome and normal-form treatment
Date	Team	Opponent	Minutes	Line	Actual	Outcome vs close	Form use
Dec 22	—	—	—	4.5	14	OVER 9.5	Included
Dec 27	—	—	—	7.5	2	UNDER 5.5	Included
Dec 29	—	—	—	4.5	8	OVER 3.5	Included
Jan 2	—	—	—	4.5	3	UNDER 1.5	Included
Jan 4	—	—	—	4.5	10	OVER 5.5	Included

Public tape · evidence before explanation

Built to show its work.

Each sportsbook gets one vote in the consensus. Live and post-tip rows are excluded. Pushes and verified DNP voids stay distinct; unresolved games are left ungraded. Recorded outcomes versus the closing line stay on the market record, while detected early exits are labeled and excluded from normal-exposure form and training. Legacy openers and identity gaps are labeled instead of silently blended in.

Read the grading method