NBA · May 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

FinalMIA 109 – BOS 103Page updated 01:53 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 3 availability alerts

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

Players and minutes0 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 0 rostered players. This does not confirm that bookmakers have posted no lines.

Miami Heat

Boston Celtics

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 01:53 UTC

Who is out

Out Carter · illness · BOS

May not play Tatum · rest · BOS

May not play Pritchard · right shoulder contusion (shoulder) · BOS

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. This does not confirm that bookmakers have posted no lines.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

BOS vs MIA · last 47 games · BOS leads · BOS record 28–19 · average score 110.6–105.6 · BOS has won by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · BOS 147 at MIA 129BOS won

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up121.1 points · 45.4 rebounds · 29.9 assists · 39.5% from three-point range

BOS gives up104.3 points · 43.5 rebounds · 25.2 assists · 33.8% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 121.1 points a game · 26th of 30 · league average 113.4+7.7 vs average

BOS gives up 104.3 points a game · 3rd of 30 · league average 113.4−9.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 33

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 265 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 299 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 350 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 360 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 373 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 375 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-15)ok 200 · 379 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 388 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-08)ok 200 · 390 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-19)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-17)ok 200 · 395 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-13)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-16)ok 200 · 406 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-07)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-20)ok 200 · 416 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-10)ok 200 · 418 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-11)ok 200 · 419 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-09)ok 200 · 420 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 422 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-12)ok 200 · 424 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 160 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 427 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-18)ok 200 · 440 ms

sds games/date (2022-05-14)ok 200 · 448 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 450 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 636 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.