NBA · Final · Playoffs round 3, game 2 · MIA leads 1–0updated 20:18 UTC

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

at Boston Celtics

No game odds posted yet

MIA 111 – BOS 105

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIA = Miami Heat, BOS = Boston Celtics.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

No player lines yet · 0 players listed

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Miami Heatplaying BOS

No player list for MIA.

Boston Celticsplaying MIA

No player list for BOS.

What could go wrong

updated 20:18 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

No player lines posted for this game.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

No player lines were posted in this game.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

BOS vs MIA · last 47 games · BOS leads · BOS record 28–19 · average score 110.6–105.6 · BOS has won by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · BOS 147 at MIA 129BOS won

6 Feb · MIA 96 at BOS 98BOS won

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up118.5 points · 46.4 rebounds · 27.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

BOS gives up106.9 points · 41.2 rebounds · 24.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 118.5 points a game · 22nd of 30 · league average 115.3+3.2 vs average

BOS gives up 106.9 points a game · 1st of 30 · league average 115.3−8.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 33

sds games/date (2023-05-10)ok 200 · 131 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 153 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 163 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 227 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 359 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-18)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-17)ok 200 · 379 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 383 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 385 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-15)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-16)ok 200 · 388 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-13)ok 200 · 395 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-12)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-14)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-11)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-08)ok 200 · 408 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-06)ok 200 · 409 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-09)ok 200 · 412 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-05)ok 200 · 422 ms

sds games/date (2023-05-07)ok 200 · 425 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 445 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 294 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 528 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 802 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 824 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.