NBA · Dec 18 gameAll props Full sheet

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets

FinalDAL 104 – DEN 130Page updated 03:12 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes5 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Mavericks

Dwight Powell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 8 actual

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 5 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 2 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

assists 10.5 → 7 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DEN expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 239.5 points · odds to win: DAL 3.76, DEN 1.31

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 02:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 03:12 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 241 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

5 other players with a posted line

Dwight Powell · rebounds 4.5 → 8 · 3.5 above the line · played 23.3 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · assists 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.8 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · assists 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · rebounds 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Christian Braun · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DEN vs DAL · last 24 games · DEN leads · DEN record 12–12 · average score 113.2–112.2 · DEN has won by 1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Mar · DAL 135 at DEN 142DEN won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DEN expected to win by 8, expected total 239.5 (Tue 02:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 02:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 34

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 122 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 329 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 332 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 336 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 346 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 355 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 366 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 370 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 373 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 382 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 387 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 396 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 404 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 100 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 706 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 992 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 229 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 533 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 590 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 694 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 706 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.