NBA · Apr 10 gameAll props Full sheet

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

FinalDAL 111 – MIA 92Page updated 21:06 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Dallas Mavericks

Caleb Martin · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Daniel Gafford · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 5 actual

Kyrie Irving · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

P.J. Washington · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 6 actual

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 0 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Tim Hardaway Jr. · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DAL expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 218 points · odds to win: DAL 1.75, MIA 2.20

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 23:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 21:06 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 340 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Bam Adebayo · assists 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

Tim Hardaway Jr. · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.4 min · no final price

Caleb Martin · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 38.3 min · no final price

Daniel Gafford · rebounds 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 25.7 min · no final price

Nikola Jović · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.7 min · no final price

Kyrie Irving · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.1 min · no final price

P.J. Washington · rebounds 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.7 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs DAL · last 14 games · DAL leads · MIA record 6–8 · average score 103.0–107.3 · MIA has lost by 4.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 2.5, expected total 218 (Wed 23:35 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 23:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 40

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 20 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 56 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 147 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 148 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 159 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 169 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 171 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 174 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 179 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 235 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 236 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 54 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 259 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 576 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 662 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 587 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 610 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 639 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 698 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 793 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.