NBA · Apr 24 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

FinalMIA 111 – BOS 101Page updated 19:13 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 9 actual

Boston Celtics

Derrick White · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 4 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

rebounds 8.5 → 8 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 6 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

BOS expected to win by about 14 · both teams together expected to score about 205.5 points · odds to win: MIA 7.74, BOS 1.11

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 22:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 19:13 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 273 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Nikola Jović · rebounds 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.9 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Derrick White · assists 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.7 min · no final price

Sam Hauser · points 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.3 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · rebounds 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 41.2 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

BOS vs MIA · last 47 games · BOS leads · BOS record 28–19 · average score 110.6–105.6 · BOS has won by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · BOS 147 at MIA 129BOS won

6 Feb · MIA 96 at BOS 98BOS won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 14, expected total 205.5 (Wed 22:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 22:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2024-04-23)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-22)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-21)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-19)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-18)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-17)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-16)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-15)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-14)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-13)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-12)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-11)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-10)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 116 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 285 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 326 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 327 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 334 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 343 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 381 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 388 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 395 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 394 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 400 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 506 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 833 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 874 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 272 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1079 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1175 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1180 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1274 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1278 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1279 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.