NBA · May 1 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

FinalMIA 84 – BOS 118Page updated 11:51 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 6 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Boston Celtics

Derrick White · minutes unknown

3-pointers 3.5 → 5 actual

Jayson Tatum · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 3 actual

Payton Pritchard · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Sam Hauser · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

BOS expected to win by about 13.5 · both teams together expected to score about 201.5 points · odds to win: MIA 7.80, BOS 1.11

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 23:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 11:51 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 248 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Sam Hauser · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 20.4 min · no final price

Nikola Jović · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.7 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 36 min · no final price

Jayson Tatum · assists 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.1 min · no final price

Derrick White · 3-pointers 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 29 min · no final price

Payton Pritchard · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 27 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

BOS vs MIA · last 47 games · BOS leads · BOS record 28–19 · average score 110.6–105.6 · BOS has won by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Apr · BOS 147 at MIA 129BOS won

6 Feb · MIA 96 at BOS 98BOS won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had BOS expected to win by 13.5, expected total 201.5 (Wed 23:35 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 23:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2024-04-30)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-29)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-28)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-27)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-26)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-24)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-23)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-22)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-19)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-18)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-17)ok 200 · 180 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 183 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 191 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 225 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 319 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 336 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 340 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-25)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 358 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-21)ok 200 · 358 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 360 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 401 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 402 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 450 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 272 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 475 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 528 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 228 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 573 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 899 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 823 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 829 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 832 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 835 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 855 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 856 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.