NBA · May 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

FinalMIN 106 – DEN 99Page updated 07:14 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 3 actual

Jaden McDaniels · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 8 actual

Rudy Gobert · minutes unknown

blocks 1.5 → 3 actual

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 3 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 1 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

assists 8.5 → 9 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DEN expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 210 points · odds to win: MIN 2.61, DEN 1.56

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 23:05 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 07:14 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 245 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Jaden McDaniels · rebounds 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Rudy Gobert · blocks 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 35.3 min · no final price

Christian Braun · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 19 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · rebounds 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · rebounds 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 32.6 min · no final price

Anthony Edwards · assists 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 42.2 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · assists 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 40.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DEN vs MIN · last 45 games · DEN leads · DEN record 24–21 · average score 111.1–112.2 · DEN has lost by 1.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Apr · DEN 98 at MIN 110DEN lost

27 Apr · MIN 113 at DEN 125DEN won

25 Apr · DEN 96 at MIN 112DEN lost

23 Apr · DEN 96 at MIN 113DEN lost

20 Apr · MIN 119 at DEN 114DEN lost

18 Apr · MIN 105 at DEN 116DEN won

1 Mar · MIN 117 at DEN 108DEN lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DEN expected to win by 4.5, expected total 210 (Sat 23:05 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 23:05 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds games/date (2024-05-02)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-03)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-29)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds games/date (2024-05-01)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-30)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-26)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-28)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-27)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-25)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-24)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-23)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-22)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-21)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds games/date (2024-04-20)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 254 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 256 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 257 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 350 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 350 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 381 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 386 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 408 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 436 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 447 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 450 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 449 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 115 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 502 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 590 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1358 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 4146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (blocks)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 537 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 540 ms

odds player timeline (blocks)ok 200 · 540 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 542 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 578 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 597 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 737 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.