NBA · Nov 26 gameAll props Full sheet

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

FinalMIL 106 – MIA 103Page updated 10:06 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes4 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Milwaukee Bucks

AJ Green · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 3 actual

Gary Trent Jr. · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

Miami Heat

Bobby Portis Jr. · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Giannis Antetokounmpo · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → no final stat available

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

MIA expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 222.5 points · odds to win: MIL 2.90, MIA 1.47

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 00:25 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 10:06 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 149 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 0 of 1 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

4 other players with a posted line

Gary Trent Jr. · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Bobby Portis Jr. · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54

AJ Green · 3-pointers 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Giannis Antetokounmpo · assists 5.5 → no final stat available · Bovada odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.10

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

MIA vs MIL · last 38 games · MIL leads · MIA record 18–20 · average score 112.6–114.9 · MIA has lost by 2.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Mar · MIL 105 at MIA 112MIA won

24 Feb · MIA 117 at MIL 128MIA lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIA expected to win by 5.5, expected total 222.5 (Wed 00:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Wed 00:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 31

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 12 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 142 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 196 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 198 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 198 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 234 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 236 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 237 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 235 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 83 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 698 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 667 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 668 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 669 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.